Extreme mild ramping, GFS and ICON showing 12 to 14c

In weather terms, it makes no sense to count from the winter solstice to the spring equinox as winter.  In a normal year, late March is far warmer than late December. The Met Office system of treating the months of December, January and February as winter is not only far more convenient but is also far more logical. Late February is probably on average a little colder than early December, but there isn't a lot in it. And regardless of whether Met Office employees are civil servants or not, first and foremost they are scientists.

Agreed. Time to forget about winter folks. It’s done. 

Be suprised if winter doesnt come back with avengence, but an early summerlike spring is likely followed by a cool wet summer .

Well yes, late March is astronomical spring! Late December is astronomical winter. You aren’t really making your point very well.

My understanding is that truly thermal seasons would run 10 Dec to 10 March (ish). But as the seasons are set by the cosmos 21-21 it is.

Evidence? Or just an old wives’ tale?

That 12z GFS run is a bit like the one shown a few days ago - an initial Easterly blast with an absolute munter following up behind. Shades of March 2013? That followed a January warming also.

Whether or not it will quite reach us is the question. 

Meanwhile is certainly much more comfortable outdoors!

What has not been mentioned here is that the recent cold spell was a textbook Buchan Cold Spell. Although rather brushed aside by modern computer driven forecasts they are quite reliable.

One thing on many of these mild charts is how pressure over Svalbard remains persistently high. 

I think it was Brian on here (and some of the old METO pros) who used that as an indicator of a possible easterly outbreak within several weeks.

Meanwhile current conditions are far from unpleasant -a massive change here especially in the northern half of the country

FAX  shows a relentless progression of LPs carrying moist SW-lies all this week, a new centre every day. By the end of the week the flood map will be solid red.

GFS presents a broader view but carries the SW-ly theme through to Wed 24th when HP from the S begins to get a grip. That slowly moves N and by Wed 3rd is over Iceland with a new centre over W Europe crating a ridge over the UK. N-lies and E-lies in yesterday's forecast  now staying the other side of the N Sea.

GEFS in S wet and near-average temps to Sat 20th (not as wet as FAX suggests?) then dry and very mild to Sat 27th (peak 10C above Norm), staying dry to end of run but temps dropping back, mean near norm but well spread. In the N esp NE less rain until the end of this week, the for 20th - 27th less spectacularly mild and a bit damper.

ECM has similar SW theme to start with though the controlling LP sits further away to the W so again perhaps not as wet as FAX; and HP slower to move N-wards in the following week

Agreed.  That was my call back on January 24th.

Onwards it looks as if the risk of flooding increases towards the end of the working week with some large totals possible in Wales and the SW:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/126h.htm

Before a decent chance of a drier and very  mild phase next weekend:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/temperatures-2m-hd/180h.htm

Deep into FI (26th onwards) a decent chance to a return to cold from the N or E, but no guarantees.

Truly remarkable ensembles. 

I am just hoping that the GFS 00z this morning and the GFS op runs from yesterday prove to be on the money with their indications of HP building over the UK later next week. The areas that have been hit by flooding in recent times could well do with it.

If this was December NO but it's all over for anything of note IMO ,  the Easterly was quite draining ( if ever that's possible) and to end with nowt is a kick in the teeth , unless there is a 2018 on offer it's Spring I now want 

No, not just you.

There's been eye candy in the output since before Xmas, but apart from for a small area of the UK, it's not resulted in anything particularly wintry. Got model fatigue now.

I'm with you on that one. I guess there is an outside chance of a late Feb/ early March beast, given the amount of HP on offer, which would be fun. But if I'm honest an early start to spring would be welcome.

Yes - there is nothing really of any interest in the models - glad I am not the only one losing the enthusiasm for model watching. Unless we get a MARCH 2013 and or another BFTE like in 2018 then I have no interest. I was expecting mild weather but not prolonged mild and warm weather and so early in the year. The Met forecast have been poor as has the BBC monthly. I agree about the easterly - apart from the far SE, EAST Anglia and Scotland including the NE - it was a non event really with many only reporting flurries/flakes or dustings - even Wales did poorly and many did better from a westerly flow in terms of snow on 24th Jan - Banbury included of course! Yes your right the ending was poor - with virtually nowhere in the country seeing a snowy breakdown and many parts of the country seeing showers fragment and evaporate as they reach their area. It would have been so nice to end the cold spell with a snowy breakdown wouldn't it? What bugged me was that we had over a week (8-10 days) of cold weather but very little snow. The BFTE in 2018 lasted 5-7 days from roughly (24th Feb - 2nd March) - was shorter YET still gave us (Devon) and many other parts more snow despite it occurring 3-4 weeks later in the season.

My love for snow continues but if we can't get it then bring on the sun and some spring warmth then - get the sunlight out and some vitamin D into our bodies which help to strengthen out immune systems and kill off viruses which will of course help to fight covid-19. Let's get those important vaccines out and rolling and lockdown to be eased soon. - at any rate even with snow we can't go to parks and hills to enjoy it can we due to lockdown. - Hope for better next winter 20/21.

Back to models - many parts could see temperatures into the mid teens this weekend.

Unfortunately, I need to say that Winters Are Over for me as next month I move to South Devon having lived in the Chilterns for 37 years.  many great winters here and plenty of snowfall at times.

I will now need to drive up to Dartmoor to experience something similar or perhaps even more extreme!

Apologies but I am also likely to become a mild ramper - I might share a few such posts on the other side next winter JFF of course!