Just look at this Arctic Plunge going as far south as the gulf coast of Mexico - coastal areas of Texas are not expected to get above -10c today - just thought I would share this as it's quite a remarkable looking temperature contrast esp in the USA:

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Sounds lovely, makes me think of my own move. Never been to the Chilterns despite spending my first 30 odd years not far away - I don't know if Luton Airport counts! 

Have been up Dartmoor though, a nice bit of elevation for your snow fix if needed. 

On your last point...do let us know when you plan to do the deed...you might not last too long!

 

Excuse me

All outputs are interesting - some are more interesting than others

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What's interesting about the model outputs? If they are of any interest then why aren't members discussing them? I struggle to find anything interesting in them ATM.

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😂 True.
The most interesting to me is the early morning RAP and HRRR US regional convective models, but I have to go further afield to get that fix and not this year again by the looks of things.

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Agreed, mild and wet. The most boring part of winter thus far.

 , Actually the models are interesting in FI, as the jet becomes amplified again at the start of March. Which means a return to a blocked pattern. This is modelled, but the high may pivot and re-introduce a late arctic blast. My best guess is day 10. Beware the ides of March!!

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On the 12z GEFS for London it looks as though next weekend we will go from the wet season to the dry season at last.  That would be very welcome - until I have to start watering the garden again in June.

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Model consistency has been excellent recently. Handled the weather in February very well

Details inside 144 haven’t changed much recently

HP rules the roost for a long time on the current output in the medium - longer term

LPs will cause some disruption this week, brushing up the UK and moving Northwards which is also not always that common

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Now that the the Atlantic reins over us again, the models are going to be.a lot more accurate: whether this is due tot the increased data, historical understanding / interpretations of this prevailing west to east flow, or the general greater predictability of a west to east flow, I dont know, but as others have commented, there is a real difference in accuracy of the models at greater range, than for blocked scenarios. This is useful for cold spell fans, because the trends deep into FI have a better chance and likelihood of manifesting back in real time. 

The consistency of the predicted return to a blocked pattern by Early March is noteworthy, because it is building a trend we should be watching for for increasing signs of verification. I am surprised to see so little activity as a result. The GFS control is a fine example of something worthy of attention. This is supported by other perts, and most feature a blocked pattern. 

Whilst many on here, including me, would like a shot of weekend settled, dry warmth to bring out the daffs etc, I would not be too upset to have a classic early March snow fest, because they are often spectacular, if short lived.

I remember well one classic east Anglian 10cm fall in the early 90s - lasted 3 days, but 2 days of amazingly frenetic snow showers, and one late event when I lived in Ipswich of similar depth started at 8.00am and snowed until 11.00am at -2 degrees, 10cm, and great sledging that afternoon, even though the temp climbed to 5 degrees by 4.00pm. It was a 1 day wonder, but amazing for it. 

Plenty more interest to come I am convinced...

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Jetstream basically blowing across the UK for the next week with minor variations as loops come and go, particularly strong on Tue 23rd but by Fri 26th beginning to form a loop to the N which enlarges and becomes the dominant feature, up around Iceland indeed,  through to Thu 4th.

FAX continues to throw fronts across the UK from the S, though more emphasis on affecting W areas than yesterday

GFS has the same S/SW flow until Tue 23rd when a deep LP passes across N Scotland to Norway, allowing space for HP to become centred over Britain 1035mb Sat 27th and after a small wobble to the NE resumes more strongly Thu 4th. Yeterday's ridge to Iceland no longer present.

GEFS for the S near norm to start with (only the E coast much above) before becoming very mild to Tue 23rd. less rain than suggested by FAX and that mostly in W. Much disagreement between runs from then on; op & control keep it mild for a couple of days and then split, about 6C above and below norm by Sun 28th and they are not the most extreme! Dry after Sat 25th. Scotland has same pattern but only 'ordinary' mild around the 23rd, not extreme.

ECM fancies a more zonal pattern from Tue 23rd with LP staying out in the Atlantic and broad HP over C Europe moving E-wards with UK only on the edge of that.

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A few days ago it was looking like high pressure would soon be taking charge of our weather but that seems to be getting pushed back and back and it’s a very wet and zonal picture for another 10 days or so, which takes us almost to March now.

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It will be interesting to see if southern Britain can still dig out a milder than average winter. Not looked at the stats but it must be a close run thing.

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Quite a big flip on the GEFS not looking like record warmth now, looks like the GEFS can flip in the mid-range when showing warm just as much with cold.

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Yep, I noticed the same. A couple of days ago GFS was showing high pressure getting established by this weekend. Looking very different to that this morning 🙁

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Perhaps frost and fog will become more of a player which will have an impact on the CET.

longer range ens still picking up a block, perhaps an easterly for early March

 

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My appetite has been wetted and the itch has been scratched. I'm now casually but not desperately searching for the next easterly and I spy with my little eye something deep on the horizon. Check out the wind vectors at the turn of the month. An unusually strong signal given the range. 

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/web/classical_meteogram?facets=undefined&time=2021021600,0,2021021600&epsgram=classical_15d_with_climate&lat=51.57&lon=-0.83&station_name=Reading,%20United%20Kingdom

 

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I can't see that Brian , it would take some incredible warmth for that ................surely ?

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Quite a flip in the ENS

12z yesterday evening had an 850hpa ENS avg of 7.2c for 23rd - Warmest ENS member is +13.4c

00z this morning has an 850hpa ENS Avg of +4.6c for 23rd. - Warmest ENS member is +8.5c

We are still looking at milder than average weather - just not as 'WARM'.

 

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Definitel hints of HP trying to create an easterly later in Feb, and on the GEFS today

 

however on the law of averages, I think we could be heading towards a large cell of HP over the UK with Colder air slipping into the continent.  Weve had such a wet 6 months that a period of dry weather is probably over due.  If it arrived like last year into Spring, that would be very welcome with lockdown easing (ptentially)

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MetO were Tweeting about it as a possibility yesterday. I've not looked at the stats.

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GEM 240hrs showing Scotland back in the cold air.

Wouldnt be at  all suprised to see another April 83 hit the UK , places like Worcester 

Again being hit, south east maybe over for this year.

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It could just happen in the far South  the 2nd and 3rd week if Dec were consistently very mild and looks like the next 2 weeks will be too  plus Jan down here was prob only just below average at most