It is indeed and it is frustrating to see those sorts of posts in this thread as they are based on nothing scientific at all  Yes it is unsettled especially further south over the coming days - that has been known for some time - but the pattern into July still looks very positive...

An excellent take  Reasons to be optimistic once this pesky trough clears off 

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

It goes to 168. See

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx?run=12&charthour=168&chartname=500hpa_height&chartregion=na-region&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM

Edit: 00z 168 looks quite consistent.

With regard the Met Office feed I'm now getting a good idea of the monthly data burn. It looks like I have quite a lot of spare capacity to add in more UKV and Global Model charts. 

It’s the damned GFS that’s the main culprit at the moment. Keeps flattering to deceive in the ENS then turning out horror op runs. That said this evening’s op then goes hot towards the end.

EDIT: actually no it doesn’t, I was looking at last nights 18z. This evening’s op stays rubbish to the end. 

Medium term, it seems the secret to a decent spell is going to be that Norwegian high hanging around and keeping away the Euro trough long enough to allow the Azores reinforcements to pile in and join up.

this is such an incorrect post - it’s a little embarrassing 

No, not really. The summer has been significantly drier than average so far for a large swathe of the U.K. and looks like continuing in that vein for some time. It does seem more unsettled at times in some parts but overall the consensus in the output or what consensus there is (cross model and ensembles) is encouraging for many parts. So, no it’s not as “simple as that”.

If you select certain output and certain locations then your conclusion is valid, without those caveats it is simply hyperbole.

Totally agree with you Doc. 👍👍👍 Plenty of settled weather across large swathes of the country so far this summer with plenty more to come. 

Utter hysteria.

It’s an unsettled spell for the south. What happens three days into astronomical summer does not a season make. Give over.

Complete nonsense of the highest order. You really do not help yourself sometimes! Your posts are increasingly hysterical with nothing remotely scientific to back them up. So, so disappointing 👎

Certainly looks like a frustrating week especially for the South but how much rain actually falls is still anyones guess. After that to my untrained eye at least its looking like high pressure will take control. But maybe Moomin will be right with his apocalyptic predictions. 

Okay, if you want to take that approach with no caveats to your blanket statements, how would you interpret this chart?

You've written off the summer. Which models are showing a write off summer?

To clarify, I'm not talking about a wet weekend or a wet spell next week. I'm referring to you stating this unsettled pattern is the default for this summer. Where is the evidence backing up such a sweeping statement?

You're fast becoming a parody that no-one will take seriously. 

JMA not great, UKMO average at best, BCC average at best.

But best you look for yourself instead.

Looks good to me. Uppers at least are average to warm in the south. Conditions are slack close to a cut-off low in the short/medium term which does indeed open the door for thundery rainfall but it won't be that cool,especially in any sunshine and it will be quite humid so nights will be sticky at times.

Kieran will always look for the wettest options but I'm more frustrated by the cool outlook nonsense because it isn't 

There's more to the UK than Oxfordshire mate. Been a good month here and looks perfectly decent in the outlook as well, low 20s with some sunshine and very little (if any) rain.

Your mask has really slipped today. 

Well if the weather in NI (which I don't live too far from) has been anything like here this June so far, then it has been very grim. Not so much in terms of rainfall, but more down to permanent low cloud cover bringing high humidity and damp drizzly conditions since the start of the month. I'd not be surprised if came in amongst the dullest June's on record up there as well as down here. 

I admit my posts are very much glass half empty, but I would shout from the rooftops of we suddenly see a turnaround into something resembling 2018.

Will we get that turnaround? I doubt it. Is it possible? Of course it's possible, but I am a believer that a general pattern for a season does set in, similar to many zonal winters that commence in December and are just relentless.

I feel that is more prevalent in winter because strong zonality is very stubborn to shift.

The issue in summer is the jet stream is much weaker, and so when these summer trough patterns set in, they too can be very difficult to shift, and can become almost stationary and just fill in situ eventually.

That is what I mean by a pattern setting in. There's not much in the models shorter or longer range that suggest a significant switch is coming and so our hope is the troughing fills and runs out of steam, but with relatively warm uppers, they keep reinvigorating themselves and staying in situ, this time in the south, while strong heights to the north keep the trough stuck like a limpet to the more southern areas, thus giving northern most parts a very decent spell of summer weather.

This can change, but it probably needs an out of season deep low pressure to zip through to stir the atmosphere and reset the pattern.

Speaking of a reset.....let's all move on, and I will give a commitment to being more subjective and more analytical.

I don't see any reason why I can't do that, if you are all prepared to accept differing opinions.

To answer that question Steve, there isn't any.

From what I can see of the model output generally at the moment, while no repeat of 2018 looks to be on offer, I see no suggestions of a repeat of either 2012 or 2007 either. There have been quite a few runs from different models which show HP to be fairly influential on the UK's weather as we head into early July. There have been some more unsettled runs too, but nothing that should cause us any undue concern, in my opinion.

Chill pill, folks!

People seem to get very wound up by Moomin. Its like reading Twitter. I really don't understand why.

The N/S divide of this late June is unusual and fascinating. The outlook is, regardless of objections, pretty poor for the Southern half of the country. It is pretty good if not excellent for the Northern half, more specifically the North West.

To take this morning's GFS, average Tmax based on grid points for the next 7 days: 17.8C (London) vs 20.8C (Manchester), and 19.6C (Glasgow). That's including today's miserable cold one in the North West. Excluding today Manchester's figure is a whopping 22.2C.

Rainfall wise we have 47mm in London by next Thursday, 7mm in Manchester and 2mm in Glasgow. And there is a maximum grid point for the country of 59mm sitting roughly over South Oxfordshire e.g. Witney. 

This is worthy of note because it's quite a persistent pattern, and every run that goes by seems to prolong the influence of the trough to the South and high pressure to the North. More of an April/May pattern than a late June one. Hence I think very interesting to see the different reactions to the same model output from people based in the North and South. It's as big a divide as the popularity of Boris Johnson in Chesham & Amersham vs Hartlepool - both populations looking at the same data but coming to completely different conclusions.