theweatheroutlook

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moomin75
26 November 2023 06:59:50

GFS is the most pessimistic though. GEM,  UKMO and ECM all look good for a prolonged cold spell. Borderline snow chances but this is normally the case for the UK. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

GFS is pessimistic looking, but take a look at the Northern Hemisphere view, it's shows a near obliterated polar vortex, and so, so different to how it usually looks at this time of the year.
All in all, very good set of 0z's!
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
+2
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 November 2023 07:30:40
WX charts show a significant retrenchment from yesterday's output, with the really cold weather retreating NE-wards, leaving a patch in C Europe in week 2 but otherwise just on the cold side of average for Britain and NW Europe, The intense cold shown yesterday for Scandinavia has gone though still markedly below norm there. Rain/snowfall has moved further S in week 1, now for Atlantic coasts from Spain to N England and generally across Europe to the Black Sea but week 2 like yesterday as pptn splits into two areas, the NW Atlantic and the Adriatic, though heavier in both than previously shown.

GFS Op - starts with an unusually vicious storm for Ukraine (965mb) with light N-lies for most of Europe. Then a shallow LP traverses Britain SE-wards on Monday again heading for Ukraine, followed by a much deeper one 975mb Somerset Thu 30th and looking cold (hill snow and cold rain?) This second LP moves to Denmark by Sat 2nd again with N-lies for Britain. After this a muddle of LP for W Europe before Wed 6th when LP in Atlantic dominates introducing SW-lies for W Europe, moving  to Scandinavia and bringing back the N-lies Sun10th. Final two days then show a toppling ridge of HP moving over Britain.

ECM - similar to GFS though the LP is Fri 1st rather than Thu 30th and then rather loses its identity leaving a generally cold area around the N Sea.

GEM - like ECM, but with the Thu/Fri LP moving across S Ireland to N France

GEFS -periods of rain Mon 27th (only the S) and Thu 30th, (mainly the S) with slightly milder temps at these times, otherwise remaining cold or very cold until Wed 6th when the mean returns to norm in the middle of a wide spread of outcomes, Never really dry in Dec, but greater amounts of rain in most runs in the second week esp in SW. Chances of snow quite high in northern locations around the 30th/1st.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Ally Pally Snowman
26 November 2023 08:14:36
Improving snow chances from the GFS. 

GEFS snows rows for the 30th and 1st. 
London 20 and 11
Aberdeen 29 and 22
Manchester 22 and 11

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
26 November 2023 09:02:12
The signal for milder conditions to return during the second week of December is quite strong and has been consistently modelled for several updates. It reminds me quite a lot of last December when the ensembles were very good at predicting the transition.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
26 November 2023 09:04:44
The uncertainty in that time scale is massive compared with the coming week (in both ECM and GEFS 00z ensembles sets).
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Rob K
26 November 2023 09:12:47

You and that phone App… honestly?

18z looked like flattening it all. Then suddenly it’s hit the 2nd bottle of cherry. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Well the iPhone app is the only way I know of seeing the IBM model output, so it is effectively another model. 

It’s wobbled back to the milder side this morning, 4C on Friday here. But the longer term has gone colder, back down to 2C and 4C a week on Monday and Tuesday. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Jiries
26 November 2023 09:14:35

The signal for milder conditions to return during the second week of December is quite strong and has been consistently modelled for several updates. It reminds me quite a lot of last December when the ensembles were very good at predicting the transition.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Was really keen to see the back of the dry cold nasty foggy spell out of the way last year to greeted with 13C temps by the morning due to heating bills wasted under the foggy cold spell, don't mind using the heating more if snow outside but not cloudy/foggy one.  As long I see snow on Thursday and Friday happy with it as it won't be foggy one this time.  That event was similar to Nov 2021 so hope not a repeat that we won;'t see snow again on that following winter.
David M Porter
26 November 2023 09:39:08

The uncertainty in that time scale is massive compared with the coming week (in both ECM and GEFS 00z ensembles sets).

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



It's worth remembering too that the second week of December is still in deep FI in forecasting terms. December doesn't begin until next Friday which is five days away. A lot can and likely will change in the model output between now and the end of the coming week, either for better or worse as far as longer-term cold prospects are concerned.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+2
The Beast from the East
26 November 2023 09:56:55

The signal for milder conditions to return during the second week of December is quite strong and has been consistently modelled for several updates. It reminds me quite a lot of last December when the ensembles were very good at predicting the transition.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Yes, looks like a repeat of last years front loaded winter. Very frustrating for cold lovers, but these days cold is a rare commodity. At least we had a frost so the young people can see what it is actually like, rather than having to read about it in a text book
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
moomin75
26 November 2023 09:59:44

Yes, looks like a repeat of last years front loaded winter. Very frustrating for cold lovers, but these days cold is a rare commodity. At least we had a frost so the young people can see what it is actually like, rather than having to read about it in a text book
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Come on Beast, this is right up there with some of ridiculous rants I used to be infamous for.
You aren't seriously writing off winter on November 26th???
Take a look at the 6z for a midweek snowstorm and relax.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
BJBlake
26 November 2023 10:20:40

Yes, looks like a repeat of last years front loaded winter. Very frustrating for cold lovers, but these days cold is a rare commodity. At least we had a frost so the young people can see what it is actually like, rather than having to read about it in a text book
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


You might be right that things are heading in that direction faster than at any time since the last ice age and probably a lot longer ago than that, but we haven’t got that far as yet. At 1.2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, frost and snow are enviably less common than when I was in my youth in the 60s - when it was just 0.4 degrees above. The speed of heating is increasing too, but for the next few years - even a few decades perhaps, we have time to see a few frosts and snow days in lowland UK - but they will be rare and notable and more enjoyable for that.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
nsrobins
26 November 2023 10:40:25
I think the guidebook on what uppers, dps, 2m temps, wind strength, mixing, altitude, etc, etc, are required for snow will be dusted off for later this week if the current modelling continues. 
Many/some/a few (select as appropriate) will see snowfall Thurs/Fri of that I’m fairly confident. Where, when, who to be determined. 
Sorry I can’t be more helpful 😎
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+1
doctormog
26 November 2023 10:46:05

I think the guidebook on what uppers, dps, 2m temps, wind strength, mixing, altitude, etc, etc, are required for snow will be dusted off for later this week if the current modelling continues. 
Many/some/a few (select as appropriate) will see snowfall Thurs/Fri of that I’m fairly confident. Where, when, who to be determined. 
Sorry I can’t be more helpful 😎

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



The BBC are suggesting the highest ground largely in the north for either sleet or snow.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Ally Pally Snowman
26 November 2023 11:08:49
Cold GFS 6z. Rough cet for first 10 days of December only about 1c or 2c.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
26 November 2023 11:28:32

The BBC are suggesting the highest ground largely in the north for either sleet or snow.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



BBC forecasts sleet for here at some point on almost every day from Tuesday night to the following Monday (rain during the day on Thursday)

😀

In general, a decent collection of output. Nothing 2010'esque, but many areas in with a chance of a Dec 2009.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Spring Sun Winter Dread
26 November 2023 11:42:00
Dec 2009 started mild

Forecasters and weather forum enthusiasts were writing the month off on the first weekend I remember !

Then suddenly that "beast from the east" (I do remember the press using the term then even though it's become indelibly associated with Feb/Mar 2018 cold snap) arrived on about the 16th and basically didn't let up til mid Jan, and we had a classic winter on our hands 



 
Essan
26 November 2023 11:43:43

BBC forecasts sleet for here at some point on almost every day from Tuesday night to the following Monday (rain during the day on Thursday)

😀

In general, a decent collection of output. Nothing 2010'esque, but many areas in with a chance of a Dec 2009.

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



I think a repeat of Dec 2009 is very likely here.   Wasn't a single flake of snow all month!  
Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Brian Gaze
26 November 2023 11:44:37

Yes, looks like a repeat of last years front loaded winter. Very frustrating for cold lovers, but these days cold is a rare commodity. At least we had a frost so the young people can see what it is actually like, rather than having to read about it in a text book
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



The analogues through the autumn have been suggesting an increased chance of winter being very mild or very cold. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gandalf The White
26 November 2023 11:49:42

Yes, looks like a repeat of last years front loaded winter. Very frustrating for cold lovers, but these days cold is a rare commodity. At least we had a frost so the young people can see what it is actually like, rather than having to read about it in a text book
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Except that last year we were still in a La Nina, which favours front-end loaded colder weather and milder conditions in Jan/Feb.  This time we're in a strengthening El Nino which works the other way round, favouring a colder Jan/Feb.  I say 'favours' because it is but one driver of our weather - as the current/upcoming cold spell proves.

The 06z ensemble for here has us up to almost 50/50 for snow on Thursday.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Brian Gaze
26 November 2023 11:54:02
MOGREPS-G looks less supportive of accumulating snow in the south later this week. Stamps here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/mogreps-stamps.aspx?hour=111&fvar=snow_depth 
 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Tim A
26 November 2023 12:07:41

MOGREPS-G looks less supportive of accumulating snow in the south later this week. Stamps here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/mogreps-stamps.aspx?hour=111&fvar=snow_depth 
 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I always find those postage stamps very conservative with regards to snow.  Always disappointed when I look at them and then have gone on to receive snowfalls.  
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Bertwhistle
26 November 2023 12:50:50
GEFS snow postage stamps look interesting at the turn of the month. 6z op has repeated events in the S due to LP systems drifting just to the south.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Saint Snow
26 November 2023 13:14:10

Dec 2009 started mild

Forecasters and weather forum enthusiasts were writing the month off on the first weekend I remember !

Then suddenly that "beast from the east" (I do remember the press using the term then even though it's become indelibly associated with Feb/Mar 2018 cold snap) arrived on about the 16th and basically didn't let up til mid Jan, and we had a classic winter on our hands 



 

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 



It was more a big Greenland High, with low pressure to our NNE.

I remember going for a big family meal with the in-laws at a country pub (with a little bit of altitude) on the 12th and the forecast was for a front moving in from the NW bringing rain/sleet with a chance of snow. Was all rain with a bit of sleet.

Further fronts from the NW moved through during the week, increasingly sleety as a colder airmass filtered southwards.

On Saturday 19th, we had showers of soft hail and snow from late morning that got heavier. I'd taken our [then 6 y/o] daughter out so the missus could do some Xmas wrapping (youngest wasn't quite 2 so still had daytime naps 😁). I remember walking though a local park, dragging her behind on a sledge in a cm on soft hail/snow with snow falling. Felt magical and I was hoping it would stay around long enough to last till Xmas Day.

Further showers through the evening, over night and through Sunday just kept gradually topping the depth up. Was around 5cm by the Monday morning. A couple days later, a low moved south bringing a heavier spell of snow, and more occasional showers through the week.

By Xmas Day we had something like 12-14cm level snow, frozen. 

This is the reanalysis Fax chart from 19th December.

UserPostedImage

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
Lionel Hutz
26 November 2023 13:31:54

It's worth remembering too that the second week of December is still in deep FI in forecasting terms. December doesn't begin until next Friday which is five days away. A lot can and likely will change in the model output between now and the end of the coming week, either for better or worse as far as longer-term cold prospects are concerned.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



I think that's a good point. If there was no prospect of cold in the immediate future but models were suggesting cold in 10 to 14 days time, we would view any such cold forecast very cautiously. So, you're right, the second week in December is a long way away. Then again, it does feel that the climatic dice are a bit more loaded towards mild these days so I wouldn't bet betting against the milder outcome either.
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



CField
26 November 2023 13:32:37
As a person of advancing years was diligently going through the archives to find a similar pattern from what we are receiving at present in the hope this could be THE ONE.The year 1939-40 took my eye and the real turning point came around Dec 15th when an intense polar vortex set up to the NE. Why is it thesedays mostly only situated to the west of Greenland and hence we only seem to get messy flabby affairs now when conditions are suited to cold conditions because of lack of strong polar vortex in right locality ?
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius

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