WX temps from week 1 with nothing special, cold towards the north with encroachment as far as Poland in the E and the Scottish Highlands in the W to a much colder scenario than shown yesterday, freezing weather across much of Europe N of the Alps and extending to all the higher regions of Britain, pursued by a large area of ultra-cold in N Russia and Finland. Spain beginning to warm up again after a cold few days. Pptn pattern reverting to that of two days ago i.e. week 1, Britain and the Baltic; week 2 it all moves south and douses the N Mediterranean.
GFS Op - tomorrow's LP still on track 970mb Outer Hebrides moving to N Sea by Sat 30th followed by a secondary crossing England 985mb Yorkshire Sun 31st, all with a general N-ly influence. Then some S-ly tracking depressions, 995mb Channel Tue 2nd, and again 1005mb Fri 5th, 1000mb N Spain Mon 8th, the last of these linking to scandinavia and bringing in more serious cold NE-lies compared to the earlier ones which are marginally cold. By Thu 10th the NE-ly has converted to a full-on N-ly down the N Sea.
ECM agrees with GFS though LP Tue 2nd is slightly deeper and has more cold air entrained in its circulation, but the later LP Fri 5th is more of an extended trough from the NW than an active feature.
GEFS temps from a little above norm now to below by Thu 11th, with a bump of milder weather around New year. After this bump, less and less ens agreement but op and control leading the pack towards cold. Rain, possibly snow in the N, appearing in most ens members from about Fri 29th (a day or two earlier in Scotland) for a week and likely to be heavy; later only a few members want to continue the wet theme but these esp in the SW.
Originally Posted by: DEW