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fairweather
05 February 2024 22:36:52

Totally agree: Snoozefest it is not. What is - is the relentless westerly strong breeze and 12-14 degrees we have now, with catkin hay fever earlier than Ive ever known. I long for marginal snow events, heavy slow moving showers that turn 6 degrees into blizzards and that then slowly melts again. 

Bring on the potential and chaos and let’s see if the Nirvana follows - with Scandi-high, plus crisp and dry snow, sunlit glinting frost topped whiteness, and the threat of heavy snow showers moving in for the overnight period. Well these days - that’s my wet dreams! Sad old sod that I am. Lol 😂

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 


Glad I'm not the only one who gets itchy streaming eyes in the middle of winter! 😂
S.Essex, 42m ASL
The Beast from the East
05 February 2024 23:00:10
Pub run looks like a mini heatwave more likely in the south 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
tallyho_83
05 February 2024 23:57:11
Just looked at all the runs!! I thought we were in for a cold February?? Or have I missed something? How odd.

At best maybe a cooler period around Valentines day - nothing else really. 8c isn't cold by any means..
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


BJBlake
06 February 2024 00:50:31

Just looked at all the runs!! I thought we were in for a cold February?? Or have I missed something? How odd.

At best maybe a cooler period around Valentines day - nothing else really. 8c isn't cold by any means..

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



Not cold by our standards perhaps, but is this what passes for cold, relatively to the balmy 12-14 degrees of late, in the warmed world? Also remember that the quoted temps are always the maxima, and local variations will be less, especially outside of local heat island conurbations and with any elevation: even 300 ft makes a massive difference. Such scraps we take in the face of relentless mildness, such that March growth, flowers and catkins adorn the hedgerows at the end of Jan, beginning of Feb. In old money it would be called near average to rather cold. Cold was 3 degrees max, and I would get interested, and then there was severe, which meant zero or below all day: halcyon days of school bus stopping snow days. Now, a morning of sleet, and an afternoon rising to 8 degrees is better at least than 14 degrees and cloudy, windy drizzle!
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
BJBlake
06 February 2024 07:18:37
Well - there’s a turn-up for the book. GFS falls into alignment with UKMO and ECM, albeit that the UKMO has shifted towards the GFS a little. ECM remain the most progressive towards a longer coldish spell, retaining the sub -5 850hpa over the north and southern half of the UK, courtesy of a rare Scandi-high, and the possibility of wintry showers in the SE corner, (East Anglia to East Sussex), and with elevation, or at night, or both, these might be snow. Here’s the metioceil version of the GFS output.
https://images.meteociel.fr/im/98/2701/animqfz4.gif 
 
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
06 February 2024 08:34:57
Despite some other models, WX still maintaining the picture over both weeks of freezing weather restricted to Scandinavia and Russia, bulking up the ultra-cold somewhat, over N Scandinavia week 1 then over Russia week 2. The Scottish Highlands get just a brief freeze in week 1.

GFS Op - some N-lies appearing over Scotland today but the real action starts on Thu when the LP from the SW reaches the W of Ireland 975mb and begins to draw in colder air from the E. This LP stays further S than shown by this model yesterday (rather like yesterday's ECM) developing a trough from the Irish Sea to Biscay by Sun 11th; but that development also brings up air from the S over Europe, meaning that any E-lies for Britain are not that cold. By Wed 14th there is a ridge of HP from Spain to Britain to Norway, becoming a centre 1040mb Baltic Fri 16th, fading and moving NE by Wed 21st allowing LP to reach SW of Ireland 970mb bringing back cold weather from the NW.

ECM - brings in the LP as above but then keeps it as a centre over Britain (975mb Sat 10th) until Tue 13th when it is filling in the N Sea. The ridge of HP does not develop , simply a HP 1040 mb Fri 16th N Norway but with shallow LP over France and a weak E-ly for Britain.

GEFS - Much less agreement between ens members than usual only lasting to Sat 10th; from Wed 7th mild and very wet in the S; cold, then milder in N England, rain and especially snow towards the NE starting a bit later; rather cold in Scotland with snow likely from Fri 9th. A range of  cool to very cold options everywhere to Fri 16th, mostly dry; then so much variation as to make generalisation impossible.

Synoptics don't tell you everything, but my guess would be wet snow widely this week, not lying in the south, but enough to be disruptive over hills in the north.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Quantum
06 February 2024 09:16:36
ICON6z is a BIG upgrade.
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
warrenb
06 February 2024 09:32:00
Yep, Icon now shows at least 27 minutes of snow for a small area of NW England quickly turning back to rain. I would hate to see what it was upgrading from.
Ally Pally Snowman
06 February 2024 09:40:16
I still remain underwhelmed with the output.  Yes an easterly may set up in a week or so but it's not a cold one just irritatingly cool. There is also a chance of a warm southerly setting up that's what I'd prefer.  
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
06 February 2024 10:05:16
Liking the trend of the 6z op run
Saint Snow
06 February 2024 10:38:12

Liking the trend of the 6z op run

Originally Posted by: ballamar 




There's real promise at t+192, but it's at that point you need energy sliding underneath.

Instead GFS models the energy from that big Atlantic low to swamp over the top, toppling the fledgling SH into Europe. already by t+222 you can see the 'nose' of the SH pointing SSW'wards

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
warrenb
06 February 2024 10:46:03

Liking the trend of the 6z op run

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Yep, bathing in the warmth of an easterly.
No 2 ways about it, it ain't getting cold when there ain't no cold air.
Saint Snow
06 February 2024 10:53:56

There's real promise at t+192, but it's at that point you need energy sliding underneath.

Instead GFS models the energy from that big Atlantic low to swamp over the top, toppling the fledgling SH into Europe. already by t+222 you can see the 'nose' of the SH pointing SSW'wards

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 




the run then goes on to make a monkey out of me as the SH realigns and energy then slides underneath 🤣🤣

(although, like WB says, there's not really any cold to tap into)

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
06 February 2024 11:06:50
And FI brings us a monster Greenland/Arctic High

UserPostedImage



Incidentally, the journey of that cold pool over the UK on this map is interesting. It broke away from that huge cold pool over Russia, then travelled through Eastern Europe before tracking westwards through the Med, up through France, then to the UK.

A proper tour!



UserPostedImage

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Ally Pally Snowman
06 February 2024 11:12:53
Cold air finally arrives on the GFS 6z at day 16. 🙃.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&run=6&time=384&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

A remarkable testament that run on how difficult it can be to get proper cold air to the UK these days. Even with seemingly great synoptics.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
06 February 2024 11:19:02

Yep, bathing in the warmth of an easterly.
No 2 ways about it, it ain't getting cold when there ain't no cold air.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 



you know better than that! Pattern trend not detail, can easily create cold pools!
Whiteout
06 February 2024 11:19:34
Yes, have to agree with others, it is getting increasingly difficult to get proper cold air in. I still worry Thursday's feature is going to be a slushy mess away from high ground and even if not will be washed away by Friday. 

Following that certainly cooler, but nothing that will deliver anything of note.

Ho,hum, spring soon lol
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Brian Gaze
06 February 2024 11:43:28
Four of the GEFS 06Z runs bring accumulating snow to Berkhamsted. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx 


UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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warrenb
06 February 2024 12:07:47

you know better than that! Pattern trend not detail, can easily create cold pools!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Trend this winter is, cold gets in at day 16 (as Saint has said), then gone, then back, then gone, then back, then gone completely and we are back to square one.
fairweather
06 February 2024 12:25:38

Trend this winter is, cold gets in at day 16 (as Saint has said), then gone, then back, then gone, then back, then gone completely and we are back to square one.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


It's called Murphy's Law of model watching. There will always be a severe cold spell with snow two weeks away !
S.Essex, 42m ASL
06 February 2024 16:06:52
again another wintry met medium and long range.

no idea what charts they are looking at, im guessing if the wind ever comes around from the N.E for 5 mins, they can claim victory
 
Berkshire
Ally Pally Snowman
06 February 2024 16:25:42

again another wintry met medium and long range.

no idea what charts they are looking at, im guessing if the wind ever comes around from the N.E for 5 mins, they can claim victory
 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 



Indeed the 12s are a million miles away from the 15 day update. Something has to give soon.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
CField
06 February 2024 16:46:19
Couldn't be more different Gfs GEM 12z runs....bordering farcical....
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Saint Snow
06 February 2024 16:46:43
The 12z GFS totally does away with the SH -> GH thing

I'm shocked, I tell ya!

🤣

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Quantum
06 February 2024 16:48:02
For those dissapointed in the 12Z set, the 15Z set is about 100 miles further south (ICOND2)
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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