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Chunky Pea
08 March 2024 18:57:17

The 12Z GFS has 25C 850s over Italy in the latter stages. Is it June or March?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


it's going to be a long summer ahead 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Matty H
08 March 2024 20:10:18

it's going to be a long summer ahead 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



Hopefully. It was a fantastic winter
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
+1
Gandalf The White
08 March 2024 21:11:41

Hopefully. It was a fantastic winter

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



If heatwaves and droughts are your thing.  I’m afraid I have a bad feeling about what’s happening.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


BJBlake
  • BJBlake
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
09 March 2024 02:09:47

If heatwaves and droughts are your thing.  I’m afraid I have a bad feeling about what’s happening.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 Chris Rea  and the Road to hell comes to mind -
extracted lyrics thus....
On your journey 'cross the wilderness from the desert to the well
You have strayed upon the motorway to hell
Well, I'm standing by a river but the water doesn't flow
It boils with every poison you can think of
Then I'm underneath the streetlights, but the light of joy I know
Scared beyond belief way down in the shadows
And the perverted fear of violence chokes a smile on every face
And common sense is ringing out the bells
This ain't no technological breakdown, oh no, this is the road to hell
And all the roads jam up with credit and there's nothing you can do
It's all just bits of paper flying away from you
Look out world, take a good look what comes dawn here
You must learn this lesson fast and learn it well
This ain't no upwardly mobile freeway
Oh no, this is the road, this is the road, this is the road to hell!!
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
09 March 2024 09:04:00
We await some interesting weather , March has been incredibly boring here. We've lost the record breaking mildness but at least its a bit dryer. Outlook continues to be a snoozefest.  
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Chunky Pea
09 March 2024 09:07:49

We await some interesting weather , March has been incredibly boring here. We've lost the record breaking mildness but at least its a bit dryer. Outlook continues to be a snoozefest.  

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



That stiff easterly is very dry. Walking home yesterday and dust was whipping up off the roads. Unusual to see in early March. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
The Beast from the East
09 March 2024 09:33:31

Hopefully. It was a fantastic winter

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



What you enjoy flooding and cold rain?

 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Ally Pally Snowman
09 March 2024 09:34:11

That stiff easterly is very dry. Walking home yesterday and dust was whipping up off the roads. Unusual to see in early March. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



I know you are not a fan but the first significant plumes beginning to show to out far south. Some remarkable heat in some of them for March. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=31543&model=gfs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

There have been so many heat records broken all over the world recently.  Will this summer here be a record breaker? 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
BJBlake
  • BJBlake
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
09 March 2024 10:25:31

I know you are not a fan but the first significant plumes beginning to show to out far south. Some remarkable heat in some of them for March. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=31543&model=gfs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

There have been so many heat records broken all over the world recently.  Will this summer here be a record breaker? 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Ifear that when winter has been spring, and spring turns out to be summer, that summer will be Bahrain or Spain.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
+1
The Beast from the East
09 March 2024 15:26:14

Ifear that when winter has been spring, and spring turns out to be summer, that summer will be Bahrain or Spain.

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 



The UK farming will benefit from global warming. Imagine what fruits and nuts we can now grow, rice paddies?
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
09 March 2024 17:59:01

Ifear that when winter has been spring, and spring turns out to be summer, that summer will be Bahrain or Spain.

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 



Somehow I don't think Bahrain summer is happening. Spanish summer sounds great to me! Perhaps not Seville but Barcelona would be fine.
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
10 March 2024 05:28:02
Well the GFS 0z would probably break the March CET record.  Incredible warmth .
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
10 March 2024 06:21:50
The GFS 0z Op is a big outlier sadly.
But it still isn't the most extreme run this morning.  GEM P11 manages to get 20c 850s to the UK on 20th March. Not sure when the earliest we've had 20c 850s but its probably June.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gem&var=2&run=0&time=246&lid=P11&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
10 March 2024 09:43:46

The GFS 0z Op is a big outlier sadly.
But it still isn't the most extreme run this morning.  GEM P11 manages to get 20c 850s to the UK on 20th March. Not sure when the earliest we've had 20c 850s but its probably June.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gem&var=2&run=0&time=246&lid=P11&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



This coming Wed looks warm in the south if we can avoid cloud. After that very wet for a while but mild. I think all monthly CETs are now under threat these days from now on. The politicians will do nothing until something disastrous happens, by which time they wont be able to do anything other than seal borders to stop climate migration 

 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Hungry Tiger
10 March 2024 14:13:20

The GFS 0z Op is a big outlier sadly.
But it still isn't the most extreme run this morning.  GEM P11 manages to get 20c 850s to the UK on 20th March. Not sure when the earliest we've had 20c 850s but its probably June.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gem&var=2&run=0&time=246&lid=P11&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



What sort of temperatures would we be looking at with the likes of that.
I reckon 27C. The March record I think is 25C.

 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Ally Pally Snowman
10 March 2024 15:06:46

What sort of temperatures would we be looking at with the likes of that.
I reckon 27C. The March record I think is 25C.

 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 



Hard to say but north of 25c for sure if sunny. Obviously incredibly unlikely but GFS also sniffing out a heat spike around the 21st.

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Bolty
10 March 2024 15:20:33
Blimey, that chart would be quite something if it came off! Never mind feeling like the spring equinox, it would be feeling like the summer solstice minus the daylight. We'd definitely see at least 25/26°C widely across the country, with some of the more favoured spots getting into the upper twenties. It won't happen, but it's fun to speculate with these things.

As for records, the current March record was set back in the 1960s. Maybe not this time around, but I get a feeling we're going to see that smashed in the next few years. The same goes for the April record, which has two things to consider; it was set in the 1940s and it was mid-month, not in the final week. A potent plume in the final week of April would easily do it.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Chunky Pea
10 March 2024 15:41:22

Blimey, that chart would be quite something if it came off! Never mind feeling like the spring equinox, it would be feeling like the summer solstice minus the daylight. We'd definitely see at least 25/26°C widely across the country, with some of the more favoured spots getting into the upper twenties. It won't happen, but it's fun to speculate with these things.

As for records, the current March record was set back in the 1960s. Maybe not this time around, but I get a feeling we're going to see that smashed in the next few years. The same goes for the April record, which has two things to consider; it was set in the 1940s and it was mid-month, not in the final week. A potent plume in the final week of April would easily do it.

Originally Posted by: Bolty 



I think even in colder climate periods, that max records were every bit as achievable as the are today, perhaps even more so. Oceans were colder, therefore less moisture in the atmosphere, which allowed greater swings between highs and lows. In today's moisture infused climate, wild swings in temp are less noticeable, but average minima is definitely taking the biggest hit. A good proportion of the 'underlying warming' going on today is down to higher overall minima than the slower rising trend of mean maxima. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Nick Gilly
10 March 2024 16:39:44
20C 850s in March would be utterly insane.

Thinking about it, did the UK even see 20C uppers at all before the 21st century? I seem to remember 15C uppers were considered exceptional back in the day.
Retron
10 March 2024 17:32:56


Thinking about it, did the UK even see 20C uppers at all before the 21st century? I seem to remember 15C uppers were considered exceptional back in the day.

Originally Posted by: Nick Gilly 


You've got a good point there - and the obvious suspect (1976) didn't see anything above 15C at 850. Indeed, 850s in much of summer 1976 look quite cool to modern eyes, especially during August, it seems to have been the very dry ground and prolonged high pressure that did it.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?uur=1800&var=2&nmaps=24&map=1&model=noaa&jaar=1976&maand=07&dag=03 

In 1990 850s reached the giddy heights of 16C, briefly.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?uur=1800&var=2&nmaps=24&map=1&model=noaa&jaar=1990&maand=08&dag=03 

There was a 17C over Kent in 1957:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1957&maand=6&dag=29&uur=1800&var=2&map=1&model=noaa 

...and an 18C just brushing Cornwall in 1948:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1948&maand=7&dag=28&uur=1800&var=2&map=1&model=noaa 

The physical (as opposed to model!) record is 24.4C, quite possibly reaching 25C as far as I can tell...

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=europe&TYPE=TEXT%3ALIST&YEAR=2022&MONTH=07&FROM=1812&TO=1900&STNM=03808 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/75/21296/6_7UKxnm2.GIF 
UserPostedImage
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Chunky Pea
10 March 2024 17:37:58
Worth keeping in mind, Retron, that those reanalysis charts are of very low resolution, so unlikely to capture the more extreme ends. (This is something I have noticed in their wind speed and temp data too - extremes on either side tend to be shaved off)
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
+1
Brian Gaze
10 March 2024 17:40:07
The highest 850hPa temperature in the UK during the 20th Century that I'm aware of occurred on 8th September 1988. 21C briefly touched the south coast. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/reanalysis.aspx?year=1988&month=Sep&dom=08&var=tmp®ion=Eur&level=850&hour=00 

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+2
Spring Sun Winter Dread
10 March 2024 17:49:43
I've thought for a while that the CET record for the whole of March is overdue to be beaten now, as 9.2C now looks tame compared to the 9.7C of Dec 2015 and the 10.1C of Nov 1994 (give or take whatever small adjustments have been made )
With our modern climate and the right synoptics 10.5C is surely doable but don't think this year is the one as we've started too cool. 
Retron
10 March 2024 17:57:00

The highest 850hPa temperature in the UK during the 20th Century that I'm aware of occurred on 8th September 1988. 21C briefly touched the south coast.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Incredibly the Wyoming soundings for Camborne go back that far!

And well spotted, Camborne recorded 21.4. It fell to just 12 only 12 hours later. I can only imagine the excitement had we all been online back then...

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=europe&TYPE=TEXT%3ALIST&YEAR=1988&MONTH=09&FROM=0800&TO=0812&STNM=03808 


03808 Camborne Observations at 00Z 08 Sep 1988

PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT THTA THTE THTV
hPa m C C % g/kg deg knot K K K
1005.0 88 20.0 16.1 78 11.58 150 20 292.7 325.8 294.8
1000.0 132 20.6 15.6 73 11.26 151 20 293.8 326.1 295.7
996.0 167 21.0 15.0 69 10.87 152 21 294.5 325.9 296.4
991.0 211 24.2 18.2 69 13.45 153 21 298.1 337.4 300.5
946.0 617 21.8 8.8 43 7.56 164 25 299.7 322.3 301.0
913.0 926 24.6 2.6 24 5.08 173 28 305.6 321.4 306.5
850.0 1549 21.4 2.4 29 5.38 190 34 308.6 325.5 309.6
828.0 1775 20.4 2.4 30 5.52 191 34 309.8 327.2 310.9
700.0 3193 8.6 -5.4 37 3.67 195 33 312.0 323.9 312.7
544.0 5213 -9.3 -14.3 67 2.34 206 42 314.0 321.8 314.4
500.0 5860 -13.9 -18.9 66 1.73 210 45 316.0 321.9 316.4
431.0 6967 -22.5 -26.5 70 1.02 210 41 318.8 322.4 319.0
400.0 7510 -26.5 -30.9 66 0.73 210 39 320.5 323.1 320.6
321.0 9059 -39.1 -46.1 47 0.19 210 32 323.8 324.6 323.9
Leysdown, north Kent
Saint Snow
10 March 2024 17:58:05

Well the GFS 0z would probably break the March CET record.  Incredible warmth .
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Hopefully doesn't get anywhere near that.

I don't want to see heat until May at least (and then not relent until September)

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

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