WX charts - freezing weather area shrinking NE-wards, clearing from the Baltic and W Russia by week 2, but with some 'hangback' so whereas most of W Europe is mild in week 1, there is a cooler area across the N German plain to Scotland in week 2. The Alps remain cold and there are reports of stormy weather there too in connection with fatal skiing accident near Zermatt. Most of Europe damp in week 1, heaviest rain on fringes of NE Atlantic, becoming very dry over France and England in week 2, the rain departs for the Balkans and Turkey.
GFS O p - current Lp over England, filling, HP over France/Germany then persisting to Wed 20th with SW-lies for Britain and LPs in the flow brushing NW Scotland & W Ireland(notably 975mb Wed 13th Shetland, 990 mb Sun 17th W Ireland). New HP develops S of Iceland and moves to settle over N Britain (1045mb Aberdeen Fri 22nd) persisting while moving slowly S-ward to Wed 27th with mostly E/SE winds. Last frame has it moving W-wards and possibly opening the gate for a strong N-ly.
ECM starts with similar pressure distribution, but shifted E-wards a couple of hundred miles so LPs affect more than just the W edges of Britain e.g, Fri 15th 995mb Clyde. The HP then fails to develop and on Thu 21st there is LP 990 mb SW Ireland with an extended trough NE-wards.
GEFS mild (Scotland with a dip Thu 14th) with good ens agreement to Wed 20th , after which mean returns to norm in the midst of a very wide range of outputs , individual outputs also very variable( a few extremely cold for Scotland around Thu 21st). Small amounts of rain Wed 13th and Sun 17th (also 15th in the N) after which ens members go their own way, but only heavy in N Ireland/NW Scotland.
I may go and watch the Severn Bore tomorrow, the first 5* bore of the new 11-year cycle, but maybe not if the local forecast continues to get ever wetter
Edited by user
11 March 2024 07:39:00
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Reason: Not specified
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Chichester 12m asl