If the tail end of the latest ECM run does verify, that is like this Autumn leaving the room after a long row, then coming back in shouting "Oh, and one more thing!". 

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Was it notably hot at ground level? Trevor Harley has nothing to say about September 1988. 

Back on the current models, a week or so ago it was looking like a cool easterly spell was likely for March. Now I see temperatures set to be in the mid teens for most of the next 10 days. Was that it?

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 I notice that on the app temps was between 6 to 8 to now 13 to 14 but very mild nights so meaning wind and rain again instead of dry mild sunny days and frosty nights.  This autumn had been around since end of June so longest 9 month now and fully expecting to be like that all year round Autumn pattern becoming new normal so completely wipe out other 3 seasons and no variety anymore.  

From the sounding I posted, 20.0 and a 16C dewpoint at midnight - pretty warm for September, and noteworthy for the 80s! These days I doubt anyone would bat an eyelid...

 

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WX charts - freezing weather area shrinking NE-wards, clearing from the Baltic and W Russia by week 2, but with some 'hangback' so whereas most of W Europe is mild in week 1, there is a cooler area across the N German plain to Scotland in week 2.  The Alps remain cold and there are reports of stormy weather there too in connection with fatal skiing accident near Zermatt. Most of Europe damp in week 1, heaviest rain on fringes of NE Atlantic, becoming very dry over France and England in week 2, the rain departs for the Balkans and Turkey.

GFS O p - current Lp over England, filling, HP over France/Germany then persisting to Wed 20th with SW-lies for Britain and LPs in the flow brushing NW Scotland  & W Ireland(notably 975mb Wed 13th Shetland, 990 mb Sun 17th W Ireland). New HP develops S of Iceland and moves to settle over N Britain (1045mb Aberdeen Fri 22nd) persisting  while moving slowly S-ward to Wed 27th with mostly E/SE winds. Last frame has it moving W-wards and possibly opening the gate for a strong N-ly. 

ECM starts with similar pressure distribution, but shifted E-wards a couple of hundred miles so LPs affect more than just the W edges of Britain e.g, Fri 15th 995mb Clyde. The HP then fails to develop and on Thu 21st there is LP 990 mb SW Ireland with an extended trough NE-wards.

GEFS mild (Scotland with a dip Thu 14th) with good ens agreement to Wed 20th , after which mean returns to norm in the midst of a very wide range of outputs , individual outputs also very variable( a few extremely cold for Scotland around Thu 21st). Small amounts of rain Wed 13th and Sun 17th (also 15th in the N) after which ens members go their own way, but only heavy in N Ireland/NW Scotland.



I may go and watch the Severn Bore tomorrow, the first 5* bore of the new 11-year cycle, but maybe not if the local forecast continues to get ever wetter

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It would appear that extreme model fatigue/boredom has taken over! A bit like the eternal wait for cold weather, we now seem to be going through a jam tomorrow experience while we await a drier spell in southern Britain. It is always promising to get drier in about a week's time!

I did notice that the North Pole is moving a few hundred miles south over the next few days. Northern Greenland and Svalbard are in for a very bracing period of weather. 

 

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Per the 0z GEFS, Liverpool has seven perts showing lying snow later in the month 😋

And 2m temps are initially topping out at 12c (mins c5c) , then falling later in the month to single-figure maxes.

 

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The spring like winter merges into early pre summer monsoon season, which used to be typically June before the Madrid style heat kicks in during late spring. 
Bets are already on for all months of this year to be above CET average with records falling in the ever expanding housing estate that is south east England. Continued great loss of green space responsible for heat pooling now extending beyond our towns and cities, all to cater for trending overpopulation destroying communities and the seasons with it, that our hopeless government sits back and watches. 

Can I just say, that even though things are not currently favourable for this to happen we do have a slight risk of a 'greenland vortex' northerly. Essentially the tropospheric polar vortex moves over greenland and high pressure to the west of greenland and over the arctic advects it south over the UK.

This scenario is RARE RARE, BUT when it happens it produces the coldest uppers I have ever seen in model outputs. The most recent time I remember this happening in real life (rather than just in model life) was in April 2021 where it caused a bitterly cold airmass to produce widespread snow. That event was not an ideal greenland vortex but still produced a crazy cold airmass.

We have a greenland vortex developing, we also have a weak area of deep high pressure to the west; at the moment its too weak to give us the northerly BUT it cannot be ruled out. This needs watching carefully. Look out for those <-20C T850 ensembles.

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WX charts show a mild week 1 for most of Europe though with freezing weather still in the usual area of N Scandinavia and W Russia, even with a link to Iceland. Then in week 2 there is a major retreat of the coldest weather back into the extreme N & E, though conversely Europe as a whole is less mild. Some very hot weather appearing in the SE corner of the map, i.e. Iraq. Rain in week 1 fairly general across Europe, heaviest in N & W; then in week 2 a very dry area in N Europe pushing any rain back to the Atlantic. At the same time a major storm develops in the Tyrrhenian Sea with more bits and pieces along the N coast of the Mediterranean.

GFS Op - LPs running NE-wards close to W Britain and trailing troughs across Britain as a whole, these troughs having got better defined in the last couple of days (Fri 15th LP Norway, trough 995mb to Irish Sea; similar Thu 21st but trough 1005mb to E Anglia; again Mon 25th; brief ridges of HP between). Final chart Fri 29th shows LP 965mb settling W of Ireland. Generally mild weather from S or W.

ECM - similar though trough Thu 21st is not so extensive and more of a pressure rise afterwards.

GEFS - for the S, generally good agreement of ens members on mild weather to Thu 21st (ca 3 C above norm) after which much variation both mild and cold with mean descending to norm. Rain most likely and heaviest w/b Sun 17th, not much in E, irregular amounts in some runs after that. For N England and Scotland, again good agreement i temp to 21st but here mild and cold periods alternating, mostly the former, and Fri 22nd both op & control show a marked dip within the medley of outcomes; the week of rain begins a couple of days earlier, on Fri 15th

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As someone once said, "will the ends, will the means."

IMO, it is trying to do the latter that is the problem.

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Gfs 06z pert 18 is the way forward in FI. 

WX temp charts as yesterday show a retreat of freezing weather over the next two weeks, clearing the Baltic, parts of Norway and W Russia - but not quite as much as yesterday, and there's a reminder that Spring can produce cold weather with some ultra-cold returning in the far NE. Europe as whole is quite mild this week, cooler next week, again as yesterday. As for rainfall, Europe is generally damp for both the next two weeks, mainly the Atlantic fringe in week 1, then looking stormy in E & W Mediterranean in week 2.

GFS Op - To start with, LP stretching from mid Atlantic to Svalbard tends to bring in SW-lies but with troughs and disturbances embedded or breaking away to affect Britain (Fri 15th 995mb Scotland, Tue 19th 975 mb Galway, Sat 23rd 995mb NI). The last of these transfers to the N Sea, there is a pressure rise over the Norwegian Sea by Wed 27th and then the Atlantic LP links with that last trough, by now over Poland, to bring in a cool E-ly for Britain.

ECM - like GFS to Tue 19th, but then ridge of HP arises from the SW, mainly over England with W-lies for Scotland. Interestingly, the HP stops short of Scandinavia which resumes this year's semi-permanent Arctic LP from Sat 23rd.

GEFS - continuing mild until Wed 20th (a dip on 16th) with good ens agreement, after which the mean returns to norm in the midst of a wide spread of outcomes, with op and control leading the cold faction from Sat 23rd. Rain in the week from Fri 15th, heaviest early in the N but later in the S, small amounts in most runs continuing later.

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Nice" oh I wish it was January" charts on the gfs 0z run this morning....hoping for a spring summer 2018 start  this year

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WX temp charts show freezing weather retreating well to the N by week 2 though N Europe still cool in week 1. Some promising warmth appearing in Spain and S France in week 2; Britain just about on the mild side of norm. Rain in modest amounts over most of Europe in week 1, heavy close to Atlantic. In week 2 very dry weather spreads from the Mediterranean N to Britain and to a lesser extent across N Europe, still excluding N Scotland.

GFS Op - current trough clears then to Wed 20th LPs run NE-wards close to W Britain but troughs encroaching on Britain less than shown yesterday. After that HP extends irregularly from the SW eventually Fri 29th 1025mb England as N edge of area S to Spain, but W-lies and nearby LPs still passing close to N Scotland. By Sun 31st the HP has moved to N Atlantic with LP over Finland giving Britain weak NE-lies, not the direct E-ly shown yesterday.

ECM - differs from GFS in keeping LP closer to Britain after Wed 20th, with any HP only brief, mainly staying close to the Azores ( Sat 23rd LP Norwegian Sea with N-lies for Britain, Mon 25th 990m b Fair Isle and trough covering all Britain)

GEFS - mild to about Fri 22nd (dip esp in N tomorrow) with good ens agreement after which mean back to norm in the middle of a wide spread, op trending mild, control trending cold/ Less rain than shown yesterday, a couple of bursts at first, then very little in SE, small amounts irregularly elsewhere, until increasingly shown in some runs from Fri 29th. 

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I know many don't rate it, but nonetheless the ECM32 shows no major pattern change, slightly mild and slightly wet for the foreseeable, albeit the NW actually looks a little drier... I don't hold out much hope for the trout season down here, the Lambourn is still at 2013/4 levels with little more than half the rain of that winter

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More tabloid type nonsense from the GFS OP although some support from its suite between day 7 and 10 and the GEM OP.
Early spring can surprise I suppose.

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Looks like an Easter snow flurry and settling on the highest hills - and may be elsewhere in the early morning, if the GFS Op is to be believed in +300 hours.  However, I have a hunch this tease of the tail end of wintry possibility might verify, against all odds, but I am prepared to be woken from my dream of seeing a flake before summer, and perhaps with a slap from a wet salmon. Fingers crossed. Spring snow is very special in its crystalline beauty - even if it melts within a hour or two.  
 

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Any suggestion promoted yesterday by WX charts that 'winter is over' has been totally overturned this morning. The week 1 situation is much as before, freezing weather in much if Scandinavia and N Russia, and the rest of Europe a little above norm for mid-March. But now in week 2, there is a major push of freezing conditions SW from Finland to cover the Baltic, and cold conditions(2-4C) for N Europe including most of Britain. ANy real warmth has been pegged back to the N coast of Africa. Pptn much less than yesterday with week 1 mainly dry for Europe, some on Atlantic fringes and also E Turkey; in week 2 the Atlantic reaches down into Spain, and there is also some rain from the Black Sea NE-wards.

GFS Op - As yesterday, LPs running NE-wards off the W coast of Scotland with the Azores HP extending into W Europe, Britain affected by one or the other in turn. The pattern changes after Thu 21st when the last of these LPs reaches the Norwegian Sea, deepens and moves SE-wards to cover the Baltic 990mb Sun 24th, winds for Britain slowly turning from the N into the E by Thu 28th. As the Baltic LP sinks S-wards and combines with LP over Spain and HP over N Norway, a cold and strong E-ly develops over N Germany and extends to Britain Sat 30th. The Norwegian HP moves S to cut off the E-lies but leaves Britain with a cold pool based on LP 995mb Irish Sea Sun 31st.

ECM - agrees with GFS to Sun 24th but then takes the Baltic LP away E-wards. By Tue 26th there is an E_W ridge of HP 1025mb lying along the Channel with gentle W-lies for Britain, mild in the S, cool in the N. So is this another GFS phantom winter? WX is based on GFS output.

GEFS - mild (+2 or 3 C) util Sat 23rd (Scotland cooler around 21st); cool (-2 or 3 C) to Sat 30th, the latter with most ens members following op and control into the fridge but quite a number of stand-out milder runs. Rain this weekend, then mostly dry but probability of rain increasing towards 1st April (rain always threatening the W). 

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Bit of a stinker at the moment with early April looking potentially severe for the time of year. 

Let’s hope the models are having a hormonal moment the last couple of days and we end up with some spring warmth instead. 

 

WX temp charts showing nothing special though freezing weather over Scandinavia and W Russia is being slow to clear, and temps for rest of Europe, slightly above norm for week 1 showing a slight cooling in C Europe in week 1 and more toward the S incl Spain in week 2. A very dry area over S France in week 1 moving N to the Baltic in week 2, with Britain on the fringe of this in both weeks. Rain following into Spain in week 2.

GFS Op - looks very much like yesterday until Sat 23rd with LP moving up the W coast of Britain (V close to N Scotland Tue 19th) and then dropping S into Scandinavia with N-lies for Britain. HP from Atlantic then drifts across Britain becoming established over W Europe/ Baltic from Tue 26th while Britain suffers from a persistent trough off the W coast, stretching from Iceland to Spain and still there Mon 1st (most active FRi 29th). Note - rather like what ECM showed yesterday when GFS went into the freezer after 23rd but ECM didn't.

ECM - Similar to GFS though the N-lies Sat 23rd are stronger and last a couple of days. In compensation the Atlantic HP sticks over Britain 1025mb Wed 27th instead of moving on.

GEFS - mild to Sat 23rd (Scotland cool briefly on 20th) then abrupt drop to cool lasting 2-3 days with good ens agreement. Mean back to norm thereafter with increasing spread, op positively warm in April. Mostly dry but with increasing chance of rain from Tue 26th esp in W, and rather more at any time in the NW

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Wait 6 hours and it's different😁

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WX temps continue as before in week 1, freezing weather over Scandinavia and N Russia, temps more or less on the norm for Europe as a whole. Today's forecast for week 2 has a change with a significant retreat of the coldest weather to the far N, W Europe and Britain still rather cool but Spring warmth moving N from the Black Sea. Rainfall in week 1 general across Europe with a heavier area around Slovakia; in week 2 the focus is on Britain, Italy, France and Portugal and any very dry area, unlike previously, has departed to the Black Sea and N-wards from there.

GFS Op - zonal W/SW-ly for this week, with a deeper trough embedded for Tue/Wed. On Sat 23rd, LP deepens 985mb Shetland and the wind goes round to give strong N/NW-lies for Britain. This LP fills but drags in troughs from the Atlantic in its wake, weak, but nevertheless cool, and sliding SE-wards to Spain at first, but deeper later, finishing with a dartboard LP 965 mb Ireland Sat 30th (new feature here!), cold and stormy. This moves across Scotland, filling, and by Wed 3rd the situation is back to a standard zonal under the influence of 980mb Iceland. For most of this fortnight HP is centred over Ukraine or to the east of there.

ECM - as GFS to Sat 23rd, but less mobile as pressure rises and the main LP is not followed up by the weaker troughs referred to above. Instead LP stays on the Atlantic but deepens sooner than shown on GFS, 960mb S of Iceland Thu 28th with winds having moved back to a mild Sw-ly for Britain. Also the weekend LP does not fill in situ as per GFS but moves SE to the Black Sea with pressure lower there.

GEFS - mild to Sat 23rd (as before, dipping 21st in the N) with then a sudden drop to cool, mean rising to norm slowly but ens agreement breaks down after Mon 25th, op and control on the cold side of mean to end of March. Mostly dry in S, but occasional rain in N & W, for a week then some rain for all, nothing dramatic, appearing in most runs. 

 

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cold or no cold...

Im just sick to the back teeth of seeing front after front.  Everywhere is just mud.  The Roads and pavements are going green with moss and algae.  Playing fields near here are waterlogged, something ive very rarely seen.

This is conditions akin to December/January.  Not March.

I just want a week or 2 of dry weather.

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It's definitely getting depressing now. It's basically rained since the heatwave in September ended. We must be due a High pressure period soon. No sign just yet though. 
 

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