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Taylor1740
18 March 2024 10:55:01
Absolutely terrible yes, and we are now getting to the time of year where it should be starting to dry out but looks like more low pressure systems and relentless rain. Must be one of the longest periods ever without a substantial anticyclonic dry spell now, it really is horrendous a thoroughly miserable Winter looks like being followed by a continuation of that through Spring. It's like the seasons don't exist anymore.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
The Dub Version
18 March 2024 13:30:50
Hey guys , haven't posted or looked at charts for weeks

Hows the back loaded winter going? (sic)
Massive SSW? AO NAO PFJ LBGTQ@+ Mountain bike torque?

Met still going for nothern bollocking and easterlies?
Berkshire
+1
Gandalf The White
18 March 2024 13:57:20

cold or no cold...

Im just sick to the back teeth of seeing front after front.  Everywhere is just mud.  The Roads and pavements are going green with moss and algae.  Playing fields near here are waterlogged, something ive very rarely seen.

This is conditions akin to December/January.  Not March.

I just want a week or 2 of dry weather.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



This week doesn’t look too bad but the ensembles paint a picture of a descent in a colder and wetter period; some of the perturbations bring another 50-60mm of rainfall and even the driest has around 10-15mm.   It looks worse the further north west you go.  I looked at a location in Cumbria and some runs are up to 80-90mm.

Like you, it’s absolutely sodden here and has been since around mid autumn.

The new recreational cricket season is going to be impacted if it does stay this wet; it’s only a month away now.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


cultman1
18 March 2024 20:13:33

Absolutely terrible yes, and we are now getting to the time of year where it should be starting to dry out but looks like more low pressure systems and relentless rain. Must be one of the longest periods ever without a substantial anticyclonic dry spell now, it really is horrendous a thoroughly miserable Winter looks like being followed by a continuation of that through Spring. It's like the seasons don't exist anymore.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

totally agree I dont see any end in sight all so depressing. Are there any signs of  a pattern change?
Ally Pally Snowman
19 March 2024 08:11:01
Looks like it's going to get worse before it gets better. Awful spell coming up cool, wet and windy.  Grim.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Quantum
19 March 2024 08:58:21
Snow risk next Monday. Never underestimate a strong warm/occluded front moving into established cold air.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
19 March 2024 09:07:34
One of those days when WX charts look like a copy of yesterday's: week 1, freezing weather over Scandinavia and N Russia, temps more or less on the norm for Europe as a whole. Today's forecast for week 2 has a change with a significant retreat of the coldest weather to the far N, W Europe and Britain still rather cool but Spring warmth moving N from the Black Sea. Rainfall in week 1 general across Europe with a heavier area around Slovakia; in week 2 the focus is on Britain, Italy, France and Portugal and any very dry area, unlike previously, has departed to the Black Sea and N-wards from there, the exception being that the rain in week 2 has shifted a little S-wards and no longer affects Britain as much. 

GFS Op - As yesterday, LP travelling up the W coast of Britain, then standing off a bit  at the end of the end of the week before dropping S into the N Sea Sun 24th with N-lies setting in. These N-lies direct a trough from the Atlantic down into Spain 990mb, more active than shown yesterday and combining with the original LP to put Britain under cold E/SE-lies by Wed 27th. Further LPs from the Atlantic follow the same track but stick over Cornwall 990mb Sat 30th with cold air from Greenland entrained. This LP takes time to push the continental HP out of the way, getting to S Germany 1000mb Wed 3rd, all the while with cool E/NE-lies for Britain. Only in the last frame if pressure beginning to rise over NW Scotland.

ECM - agrees with GFS until Wed 27th when the LP does not move to Spain but stops to form a large deep LP 970mb Wales with much colder air from the Arctic then reaching Britain. Although the centre of this LP then moves to Norway it trails a trough behind it so even by Fri 29th Britain is under LP with air from a cold source. [Wed 27th could be the coldest day of the 'winter' for England and Wales on this model]

GEFS - mild temps dropping off a cliff Sat 23rd (though the N is currently cooler it becomes briefly mild before 23rd), becoming cold and only slowly recovering to norm by Sat 30th, with fair agreement of ens members. After this most ens members stay with the mean near norm but both high and low outliers appear. Small amounts of rain from the 23rd, mostly concentrated and more intense around the 30th esp in SW. Don't be surprised by Spring snow showers almost anywhere!
 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
The Beast from the East
19 March 2024 09:17:59
Horrific looking ECM . Just as well Sunak has bottled calling the election, who would want to canvass is those conditions! 
More flooding on the way by the looks of it
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Taylor1740
19 March 2024 11:21:40

Horrific looking ECM . Just as well Sunak has bottled calling the election, who would want to canvass is those conditions! 
More flooding on the way by the looks of it
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Horrific GFS 6z also, will be well into May at this rate before the ground dries out. Shocking spell of weather!
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
moomin75
19 March 2024 17:50:29

Horrific GFS 6z also, will be well into May at this rate before the ground dries out. Shocking spell of weather!

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


Absolutely horrendous indeed. Our cricket ground remains under water and looks like the first month of an already short season will be no chance of any cricket at all. To be honest, apart from last September, we've had relentless rain for nigh on 9 months. The whole of last summer was a disaster from a cricket perspective. 
Surely there will be a pattern change soon?
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
White Meadows
19 March 2024 23:06:31

Hey guys , haven't posted or looked at charts for weeks

Hows the back loaded winter going? (sic)
Massive SSW? AO NAO PFJ LBGTQ@+ Mountain bike torque?

Met still going for nothern bollocking and easterlies?

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 


Total joke mid and long range forecasting since the much touted ‘back loaded’ winter forecasts in the contingency planners. 
Repeat car crash forecasting since Christmas for the Met office, even at reasonably short ranges. 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
20 March 2024 08:48:10
WX summaries; freezing weather continues its retreat to N Scandinavia and N Russia though not quite as far as shown yesterday, staying on the cool side in W Europe (though not far from long-term average), warmth in E Europe near the Black Sea and also close to Mediterranean coasts. Rain in week 1 for Atlantic coasts, over the Alps (spring snow at higher levels?) and E Turkey; in week 2 the Atlantic dries out and rain moves to England and Spain linking with that over the Alps; some very dry weather over the Mediterranean linking with the Black Sea to match the warmth above.

GFS Op - looking like yesterday; LP moving around W then N Scotland before dropping into the N Sea (deepest 990 mb Orkney Sun 24th) with brief N-lies. Then a slider from the Atlantic brushing Cornwall on its way to Spain 985mb Tue 26th followed by the main event, deep cold LP reaching NW Ireland 965mb Wed 27th. This dominates British weather for the following week, filling but portions moving across first Scotland then England where it is still found 995mb Sun 31st. This LP, now shallow, wanders around Holland and then N France where it is still generating cool E-lies for England Fri 5th while pressure rises over Scotland.

JET matches the GFS with marked loops around and to S of  Britain w/b Wed 27th

ECM - something like GFS at first though the 'slider' is only the S end of a trough extending N-wards, and then the LP forming the 'main event' is deeper (950mb), colder but fortunately stays further out on the Atlantic. After that, unlike GFS it stays clear of Britain, becoming a SW-NE trough near S Iceland, with NW Scotland marginally affected but SE England influenced by continental HP 1030 mb Poland Sat 30th and SW-lies for all. Quite a difference there!

GEFS - Good ens agreement on sharp drop in temp Sat 23rd then rising steadily to norm by Fri 29th. The mean stays near norm or a little cooler away from the SE through to Fri 5th with moderate spread of runs on either side. Heaviest of rain w/b Sun 24th, notably in S & W,  fairly dry until then but continuing damp afterwards. 

 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
20 March 2024 09:06:34
No sign of a let up in the mainly unsettled weather , especially if GFS Ops verifies. Day after day of rain on that model. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Russwirral
20 March 2024 10:09:45

Total joke mid and long range forecasting since the much touted ‘back loaded’ winter forecasts in the contingency planners. 
Repeat car crash forecasting since Christmas for the Met office, even at reasonably short ranges. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



It will be a back loaded winter, with that winter arriving in spring and summer, once the cold has been watered down to cool by the looks

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Russwirral
20 March 2024 10:13:39
Slightest hints of something a little drier and warmer on the ECM this morning

GFS remains a washout

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Russwirral
20 March 2024 12:28:03

Slightest hints of something a little drier and warmer on the ECM this morning

GFS remains a washout

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



Update - GFS looking similar to ECM in that Easter might not be a washout for most, and looks not all that bad...  Hopefully a developing improving situation

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Jiries
20 March 2024 22:13:11

Update - GFS looking similar to ECM in that Easter might not be a washout for most, and looks not all that bad...  Hopefully a developing improving situation

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



In the past any developing improving situation I used to be very confident to come off but now absolutely not a single confident it seeing it happening after locked in 1 year of poor weather bar few weeks in total in June and Sept.   Settled patterns ahd been widely absent and not easy to tap into,   I remember viewing the models days I always see HP readily move in but now seem either refused to move in or move in with rain and cloud with it.
RHannam
20 March 2024 23:03:56
I thought a few days ago the Easter North Easterly showing on a few runs would probably gain support and verify based on the law of sod after the winter shenanigans. Just like the winter though, these charts remained firmly in F1 with the output generally reverting back to zonal pretty quickly. The output continues to look horrendous with that low coming in early next week setting up residence over us for days on end. The ECM 12z ens appear to have the low slightly further west, but not a great improvement on the other models. I'd probably have taken the North Easterly over what's been shown. At least it would have been drier if a tad chilly. May have to cancel the Easter barbecue!
Ray
Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne, 63m ASL
Jiries
21 March 2024 07:04:17

I thought a few days ago the Easter North Easterly showing on a few runs would probably gain support and verify based on the law of sod after the winter shenanigans. Just like the winter though, these charts remained firmly in F1 with the output generally reverting back to zonal pretty quickly. The output continues to look horrendous with that low coming in early next week setting up residence over us for days on end. The ECM 12z ens appear to have the low slightly further west, but not a great improvement on the other models. I'd probably have taken the North Easterly over what's been shown. At least it would have been drier if a tad chilly. May have to cancel the Easter barbecue!

Originally Posted by: RHannam 



As usual models had poorly useless to bring in settled weather at all and always happy accurate insult us with never ending lows like this one and wanted to park the nasty low over us but won’t allow to move east as it should be on Earth movement and winds flow from west to east like in USA their system move freely across the continent by jet stream flow.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 March 2024 08:26:22
WX charts back to the scenario in the freezing area in the far north of Europe in shrinking rapidly. Unfortunately for Britain, this is due a major push of Spring warmth up through Romania and Poland, while NW Europe incl Britain remains cool, both in terms of absolute temps and relative to longterm average. Rain in week 1 for Britain, France and the Alps, also Turkey. The former area moves south to become very heavy over N Spain, France and the Alps, leaving something less intense behind over Britain, Germany and Norway. Becoming v dry in E Europe esp Ukraine.

GFS Op - current LP moving N of Scotland and then S to S Norway 990mb Sun 24th with Britain on the fringe of its N-ly circulation. New LP from Atlantic with cold core makes a move towards Spain but then (unlike yesterday) pulls up and stops over Cornwall 955mb Wed 27th, looking stormy for Britain generally. It fills and moves N-wards slowly but is still present 985mb Sun 31st Hebrides. It or its successor then tracks as a shallower feature across England (Tue 2nd) to Norway (Thu 4th) and back to Holland (Sat 6th). At that final stage pressure is rising to the NW but in the SE there are strong NE-lies.

ECM - looks quite different to GFS after Sun 24th. Oddly, this model has changed outlooks with GFS. Previously it had that LP sticking over Britain and rejected the idea of LPs sliding down to Spain, but now it's predicting a series of LPs moving SE to Spain - 990mb Biscay Tue 26th, 985mb Cornwall Thu 28th, 990mb Portugal Sat 30th, but always with a trough extending back towards Britain.

GEFS - less active than the models above would suggest. A sharp dip to a cold day or two Sat 23rd then good agreement around the mean which is close to or just a little below norm until Apr 1st when variation sets in. Rain heaviest in w/b Mon 25th, esp in west, mostly dry before that, still appreciable amounts in some runs afterwards. Snow quite likely for northern hills.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
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