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White Meadows
10 May 2024 05:06:42

That analysis says the month was 0.4c above average , with minima 0.8 above, meaning maxima averaged 0.4c below.  In other words, only very marginally cooler by day; hardly noticeable surely?

 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

add in the other aforementioned factors; lack of sun, strong winds particularly along the coast, sixth wettest April in nearly 200 years.. and yes, very noticeable indeed. 
 
DEW
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10 May 2024 06:23:34
WX temps with a more optimistic display this morning. Week 1, 'springlike' over continental W Europe, fringing into S Britain, cool weather spreading S-wards only as near as W Russia. In week 2, much warmer weather spreading in from the SE as far as Germany though not by then near enough to raise temps in Britain. Rain in week 1 for W Britain and France, very dry for Scandinavia and S Spain. In week 2, rain widespread over continental W Europe, becoming less noticeable towards N Scotland.

GFS Op - current HP off to the Baltic by Sun 12th; at first pressure drops slowly and generally over Britain but by Tue 14th a definite depression develops 990mb Cornwall. This circulates around (mostly western) Britain, progressively filling but still identifiable until Tue 21st when it gets sucked into an LP which has suddenly developed over Norway. After some days with an indeterminate pressure pattern, HP appears as a ridge from the SW Fri 24th, steadily extending NE-wards but with lower pressure over the continent bringing E-lies to S Britain.

ECM - similar to GFS as far as it has downloaded ATM (to Fri 17th); yesterday's 12z differs after that as HP continues to dominate Scandinavia and links to HP from the SW, while the LP which has been cruising around Britain just drifts S-wards into the continent.

GEFS - Rain and a drop in temp 12th/13th Sun/Mon arriving first in the west and spreading everywhere. Temps continue near norm with only a gradual spread in ens members, rain in most places at many times, heaviest and most persistent in SW, light and patchy in far NE.

Weekend reviews may be either brief or absent as I'm involved in organising a major orienteering event.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
The Dub Version
10 May 2024 07:43:02
Unbelievably on BBC south today, a grass fire warning  in some areas. How?? 2 days of sun?

To the models, a the sh*t fest weather comes back Monday....
 
Berkshire
Saint Snow
10 May 2024 09:31:55

Whereas up here, the forecast has changed over the past few days from glorious and sunny with temps up to 23c on a beautiful easterly flow from a big high centred over Norway, to positioning the high further SE to centre over Poland/southern Baltic, bringing a more southerly flow and allowing fronts to encroach from the west leading to showers here and temps maxing at 19c/20c.

🤮

I keep getting my hopes up for a high to establish itself over northern Scotland/Shetland/Faroe like in early summer 2018.

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 




Next run after posting that, things flipped back somewhat.

Saturday lovely, Sunday thundery showers pm.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
White Meadows
10 May 2024 11:19:54

Unbelievably on BBC south today, a grass fire warning  in some areas. How?? 2 days of sun?

To the models, a the sh*t fest weather comes back Monday....
 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 

Daft isn’t it? Any excuse to bang the ‘we’re all burning up’ drum. 
Tim A
10 May 2024 12:11:51
I am thinking it doesn't look that bad next week . Low to the SW , warmish, lots of opportunities for some decent sunshine at times especially further NE.  Will rain yes,  but not horrendous all the time .
June like weather. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
DEW
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11 May 2024 05:18:30
WX temps - week 1, patches of mild/warm weather scattered across W Europe, even up into Sweden. Week 2, this spreads to all the the continent though reluctant to cross the Channel; Scotland still definitely cool (and Iceland still freezing). Rain for France and W Britain week 1, for Scandinavia and W Britain week 2, also by then in the Balkans

GFS Op - LP 990 mb replacing HP and in W Approaches by Mon 13th, moving around that area but becoming slack LP over France by Sat 18th. A few days in which N britain esp is dominated by LP, 995mb Shetland Tue 21st, before pressure rises and is centred over Britain 1030mb Sat 25th.

ECM 12z (0z not yet downloaded) - as GFS

GEFS - cooler from 13th (the dip less marked in Scotland) but rising again and becoming pleasantly mild/warm by Sat 25th (a few cold outliers spoil the party). Rain, in places heavy around Mon 13th esp in W, then small amounts anywhere at any time
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+6
Zubzero
11 May 2024 12:42:55
What's the reason that the  GEFS keeps underestimating max temps by 2-4C 

Today for example it's showing a max of 19-20c when it's been 22-23c.

Tomorrow it could be up to 5c out, that's a massive difference at such short range. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=320&y=106&run=6&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1 
DEW
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12 May 2024 06:53:57
WX temp - week 1 much like shown yesterday, patches of springlike weather here and there across W Europe as far N as Sweden (indeed rather warm there) but in week 2 unlike yesterday the increased warmth generally is replaced by average-looking temps everywhere. Britain trundles on near norm both weeks. Rain in week 1 Ireland - France -Italy extending further E in week 2, Very dry in Scandinavia, UK on the fringe of this

GFS Op - trough over Britain developing to 990mb Cornwall Tu 14th, drifting S to  France while HPs Atlantic and Scandinavia link up over Scotland Sun 19th (E-lies for England), this ridge weakening but still present until Sun 26th when LP begins to move down from Iceland reaching SW Approaches 985mb Mon 20th

ECM - like GFS but the trough moves E to Holland, not France, with the following rise in HP covering all Britain

GEFS - temps dropping (close) to norm Tue 14th (more of a steady decline in Scotland) this rising a little and staying there to Tue 27th, with good ens agreement to Tue 20th after which variation. Rain definite for 13th/14th looking showery throughout after that but very little in far NE.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
DEW
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13 May 2024 07:17:50
WX temp predictions (based on GFS) are by no means stable.  Today's offering has, for week 1, has mild/warm weather intensifying around the S Baltic,  areas to the SW and E of this below norm, Britain just average. In week 2, there is a general increase in temp for W Europe reaching S England (Scotland simply mild) while colder air stays well east, pushing S along the line of the Urals. Rainfall pattern similar for both weeks; very dry for Scandinavia, but rain for S Britain, France, the Alps and in patches across the Balkans to Turkey. In conjunction with GFS this implies thunderstorms likely for England in week 2.

GFS Op - LP near Cornwall, deepest 990mb Tue, slowly filling and moving to France by Sat 18th, continuing to affect England while ridge of HP establishes from Atlantic to Norway including Scotland, with generally warm source of air for Britain. This pattern persists to Sun 26th but with the addition of LP in Biscay, This links with LP moving down from Iceland to set up a trough with much cooler weather by Tue 28th (the end of the BH weekend, what did you expect?)

ECM - similar to GFS but the LP 'in Biscay' develops earlier, Wed 22nd, and while not at that stage affecting Britain directly, prevents HP developing as strongly over Scotland, and thus the LP over France extends further N into Britain.

GEFS - good agreement of ens members on temps a little above norm in S, notably above in N, to Tue 21st after which the mean continues at norm, op and control warmer but a number of cold outliers appearing. Rain in small to moderate amounts throughout, heaviest and most persistent in S esp SW, patchy in NE and dry at first there but  a few runs with sharply heavier falls later.

 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
DEW
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14 May 2024 06:38:32
WX temp predictions for once build on the previous day's charts. In week 1 the local 'heat island' in the S Baltic is more marked, Britain near norm, rest of W mild enough but below norm for time of year. The increase in warmth from the south is even more marked than shown yesterday, even hot over parts of France and Germany, fringing into England while the Baltic cools down. W Russia remains cool throughout. Very dry for S Scandinavia, week 1 rainfall from England through France to the Balkans, this area moving E-wards and shrinking in week 2.

GFS Op - LP currently off Cornwall, filling, spreading out and moving to France by Sat 18th, still close enough to affect England. Some rise of pressure close to NW Scotland, rather uncertain and giving way to slack LP for all of Britain by Thu 23rd before pressure rises Sat 25th and links to that which has been sitting over Sweden. Pressure than falls over the Atlantic and Scandinavia while Britain just about hangs on to warm HP but this fades out Thu 30th.

ECM - 0z available ATM to Tue 21st similar to GFS but LP over France a touch further N; 12z after this (may edit later) shows an Atlantic LP moving close to Ireland and projecting a trough across Britain EDIT - now much more like GFS, Atlantic LP no longer shown but the 'slack LP' rather more in evidence, moving from France N-wards up the N Sea to W of Norway Fri 24th with pressure rise behind

GEFS - temps close to or a few degrees above norm until Thu 23rd with good ens agreement but a wide spread of predictions ensues, both above and below norm with op and control going in opposite directions in the S but in the N both cool. Rain intermittent but frequent and persisting in the S; in the N mainly dry to the 23rd, then small amounts from time to time.





 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+6
Saint Snow
14 May 2024 07:42:57
Pressure building to the N and NE of the UK, then being shunted away by Atlantic lows is becoming a loosely recurring theme over the past month or so. Happens again in the 0z GFS

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Chunky Pea
14 May 2024 07:54:29
Rainy weather does seem to return quicker than normal this year, which is in contrast to previous years. A bigger, broader pattern change seems to have occurred sometime over the last 6 months or so. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Caz
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14 May 2024 10:29:44

Rainy weather does seem to return quicker than normal this year, which is in contrast to previous years. A bigger, broader pattern change seems to have occurred sometime over the last 6 months or so. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

It very quickly turns to above average temperatures as well.  At least it has been doing in my neck of the woods.  
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
DEW
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15 May 2024 07:17:16
WX temps with minor variations from yesterday. The warm area near the S Baltic is still there in week 1, cooler both to east and west of this. In week 2, it becomes even warmer and is joined by warm/mild temps moving N over France and reaching E Britain. The rest of Britain stays near norm. In the east, NW Russia becomes quite cold. For both weeks, very dry over Scandinavia and the N Sea while a large wet area is covering France, the Alps and on to Greece, and just touching S Britain.

GFS Op - depression near Cornwall drifting SE-wards and becoming a broad area of LP over France and Germany by Sat 18th. Northern Britain has higher pressure as a link between HP on the Atlantic and HP over Scandinavia develops and is stronger or weaker depending on competition from the LP over the near continent. LP more influential Wed 22nd and Tue 28th, HP at other times but final frame Fri 31st shows a breakdown of HP as a trough from Iceland joins the mix.

ECM - similar to GFS until Thu 23rd when the ridge of HP moves further S and sets up over the Channel while a N Atlantic LP moves in 1000mb Western Isles Sat 25th with a trough extending S over Britain. By this stage the near continent has high rather than low pressure, contrasting with GFS.

GEFS - In S England, temps near or a little above norm to Thu 23rd with good ens agreement; after this a spread of about +/- 5C soon develops either side of the norm with op and control in opposite directions; small amounts of rain at any time. In Scotland and N England (the boundary somewhere N of Birmingham), temps above average at first declining to norm by Thu 23rd, thereafter a wider spread of temps; almost no rain until 23rd, then again small amounts of rain frequent but with some runs showing occasional heavier falls.

 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Saint Snow
15 May 2024 12:51:27
Everything is a bit transient in the short-term.

GEM the pick of the FI bunch so far today, anchoring a high to our E/NE to bring in a SE'ly flow. GFS not terrible, with suggestions of a ridging AH. ECM not so good, with Atlantic lows making more progress over the UK.
 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
cultman1
15 May 2024 13:43:47
So with a looming bank holiday which option do you think is the likely outcome? 
Saint Snow
15 May 2024 13:54:39

So with a looming bank holiday which option do you think is the likely outcome? 

Originally Posted by: cultman1 




I always lean toward the Law of Sod

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Roger Parsons
15 May 2024 14:05:19

Everything is a bit transient in the short-term.

GEM the pick of the FI bunch so far today, anchoring a high to our E/NE to bring in a SE'ly flow. GFS not terrible, with suggestions of a ridging AH. ECM not so good, with Atlantic lows making more progress over the UK.
 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I'm concentrating on Friday. We are booked on an RSPB birding cruise into "The Wash". 🦆😬🤢
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
DEW
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16 May 2024 07:17:50
WX temp charts similar to yesterday with the extra warmth over the S Baltic in week 1 spreading to the rest of W Europe in week 2, though not so markedly as before, and Britain catching less of it as temps here stay near norm. Still rather cool over W Russia. Rainfall pattern also much as yesterday, an area of rain England (perhaps a bit wetter than previously) - France - Balkans both weeks but less intense week 2. Very dry for Scandinavia and northern N Sea.

GFS Op - LP near SW Britain moving to France and staying there for a week, extensive enough to affect England, and a ridge of HP off NW Scotland. The LP is often positioned further N than yesterday e.g. Thu 23rd 1005mb E Anglia. On Sun 26th this is replaced by a new LP from the Atlantic setting up 1000mb off SW Ireland slowly filling but with HP far off over Iceland. Something of a warm S-ly flow.

ECM - rather like GFS but on Thu 23rd Lp extends even further N to affect all of England. After that however the HP is much closer to NW Scotland 1030mb Rockall Sun 26th.

GEFS - In the S, temps near norm, a little above at first, a little below in a week's time, and rain from time to time in most runs. In the N, starting rather more above norm but also cooling as the week progresses, and dry until the 23rd after which small amounts of rain intermittently. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Saint Snow
16 May 2024 08:46:19
What struck me about the 0z GFS was how some of the synoptics in that run look like they'd be great in January! Not the first time, obviously, but it always does leave me thinking "why can't the weather just play ball?" 🤣

Here at +156
UserPostedImage

At +192
UserPostedImage


+229 (fronts moving in from the SW into frigid air)
UserPostedImage

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
White Meadows
17 May 2024 06:06:34
The early June monsoon looks set to continue in this mornings output. Particularly in the south. 
daytime max Temps poor, too. 
 
DEW
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17 May 2024 07:42:10
WX temps start from yesterday's position with an above average area from Scandinavia south to the Balkans (and especially warm around the Baltic) with cooler weather on either side. This extra warmth subsides to norm in week 2 as the areas to west (i.e. France) and east (i.e. W Russia) become warmer though in the former case not as much as yesterday. Britain watches from the sidelines with little change from the present. In week 1, very dry for Scandinavia and Spain, wet for most of continental Europe, Britain merely damp; week 2 the rain moves north from France to Britain which then links with the rest of Europe.

GFS Op - the charts begin with a wide area of LP over France affecting S Britain while the N is under a weak ridge of HP extending from the SW. By Tue 21st the continental LP has linked to another LP from Iceland generating a trough for Britain with HP to E & W. After a brief re-set, LP near Iceland again becomes active, beginning to control British weather from Sun 26th and getting closer 1000mb Ireland Thu 30th and swirling around NW Britain to Sun 2nd while there is some rise of pressure in the S.

ECM - differs from GFS after Tue 21st; the 'brief re-set' is instead a major rise of pressure 1025mb covering Britain Sat 25th, intensifying over Scotland Mon 27th with E/NE winds for England with a hint of something cold on the way from a Scandinavian LP.

GEFS - in the S, temps near norm, perhaps a little above at first, a little below near Fri 24th, mean then stays near norm but with a wide range of uncertainty, and small amounts of rain at any time. In the N, temps start above norm and steadily decline to norm shortly after 24th and then as above are uncertain; little rain until a major event Thu 23rd, and frequent small amounts after that

 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Saint Snow
17 May 2024 09:40:56
Fair bit of divergence in the models this morning. The Atlantic remains active but there's a fair bit of high pressure around - I know this is stating the obvious, but it's the relative locations of each that causes the different outcomes.

GFS is by far the worst. It starts to build pressure from the SW before spinning some weird low formed over central Europe NW'wards over us, then brings in a trough to sit to our west, which first spawns a spin-off that moves over us, before the main trough joins it. Miserable throughout FI with high pressure kept to our NE and SW.

GEM not much better at first, as it also has that little Euro-low, this time moving NNW'wards to centre over the eastern part of England. But GEM then ridges the AH quite strongly over the southern UK at least as we move into FI

ECM the pick of the models for a dry evolution - although not very warm. Yes, the same Euro-low bothers us in the first half of next week, but ECM then migrates the AH first to the west of the UK, then centres it over northern Scotland before inflating it to cover all of the UK. It does then retrogress it a bit back northwards, but almost all the UK (barring the far South, perhaps) remains under the influence of the high with an easterly drift.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
Jiries
17 May 2024 10:33:30

Fair bit of divergence in the models this morning. The Atlantic remains active but there's a fair bit of high pressure around - I know this is stating the obvious, but it's the relative locations of each that causes the different outcomes.

GFS is by far the worst. It starts to build pressure from the SW before spinning some weird low formed over central Europe NW'wards over us, then brings in a trough to sit to our west, which first spawns a spin-off that moves over us, before the main trough joins it. Miserable throughout FI with high pressure kept to our NE and SW.

GEM not much better at first, as it also has that little Euro-low, this time moving NNW'wards to centre over the eastern part of England. But GEM then ridges the AH quite strongly over the southern UK at least as we move into FI

ECM the pick of the models for a dry evolution - although not very warm. Yes, the same Euro-low bothers us in the first half of next week, but ECM then migrates the AH first to the west of the UK, then centres it over northern Scotland before inflating it to cover all of the UK. It does then retrogress it a bit back northwards, but almost all the UK (barring the far South, perhaps) remains under the influence of the high with an easterly drift.

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



What ever the unreliable rubbish models had been in this decade I still not seen a decent blue skies since last BH weekend.  Make you wonder the EV and Hybrid cars made matter worst than all fully petrolled cars in the past but still got lot of blue skies around.    If they are all unreliable best to ignore them and look from outside and plan your day ahead that the best you can do. as we had very lack of reliable forecast and models.
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