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Retron
28 April 2024 13:10:51

A massive battle of the models here tomorrow and one is going to be badly wrong - but which? GFS, I suspect, but we'll see.

On the top, the 12z GFS for Leysdown. On the bottom, the UKV (via MetO)... just a 5C difference at 2PM!
https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/compare.jpg 


UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Quoting this from yesterday - the actual temperature at 2PM here was 9.1C, so MetO was far closer.

Meanwhile at Beenham, where the GFS had that wacky 3C (or 4C on this morning's run), it was 10.4C at 2PM.

A massive fail on the part of GFS, frankly... why DOES it get temperatures so badly wrong when predicting unusually cold conditions?
Leysdown, north Kent
Jiries
28 April 2024 13:11:31

GFS 0600z gives a small bit quite vigorous low moving across the UK from the SW on bank holiday Sunday.  This flies against optimistic hints on the BBC week ahead forecast this lunch time.  Fortunately, it is an outlier at that point!

Originally Posted by: UncleAlbert 



GFS can sod off and leave us alone and allow us to recover what Spring season got left.   

Edit:  It been stupid GFS lately Retron and we know it so best to ignore this model completely.   3C never happened in late of the month 
+2
Rob K
28 April 2024 19:54:23
GFS still modelling an annoying LP sticking over the UK next weekend.

ECM also now following suit albeit a shallower one.

Both look fairly promising after the weekend though, ECM especially so.

Might even see a 20C at some point before June!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
29 April 2024 07:07:33
Still looking encouraging for a bit of warmth next week.

April has been above average but largely due to the incessant cloud and wind keeping night time temps up.

Please bring on the 240 hour charts!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
29 April 2024 07:15:57

Still looking encouraging for a bit of warmth next week.

April has been above average but largely due to the incessant cloud and wind keeping night time temps up.

Please bring on the 240 hour charts!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Yes we all deserve some proper Spring weather, and we do seem to be hopefully shuffling our way to something much better. 
🤞
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
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29 April 2024 07:19:38
The Daily Star says 'Oompah. oompah, put away your jumpah! - do you need more?  Well, maybe ...

WX temps - the pool of warm air over Germany in week1 combines with increasing warmth over Iberia to produce warm and springlike weather  for all of W Europe in week 2, today shown as reaching across the Channel into S England, Scotland too noticeably milder. Some compensating cold weather moving S-wards over the Urals. A band of wet weather in week 1 stretching from S Britain to France and on E-ward across the Alps. In week 2 this retreats to the Atlantic in the west and breaks up into isolated patches in the east.

GFS Op - current LP continues to circulate over Britain this week, filling all the while, moving first to Ireland then the Channel then by Fri 3rd Holland while the source of air increasingly comes from a warm E/SE direction. Pressure then rises over Britain, uncertainly at first but by Wed 8th well established to cover the country at 1025mb. It drifts N to Scotland by Sun 12th with pressure slowly falling over France, the latter bringing up even more warmth from the south. The HP then fades as a new LP moves down from Iceland to SW Ireland 990mb Wed 15th.

ECM is less keen to dismiss the LP at the end of the week; it revives after visiting Holland and is a definite feature 1000mb E England Sun/Mon 5th/6th before pressure rises more strongly than on GFS 1035mb N Sea Thu 9th.

GEFS - briefly mild but with rain around Thu 2nd, then back to norm (the dip is more marked in the S) before a long period of mild/warm with only small amounts of rain from time to time through to Wed 15th, albeit an increasing number of colder runs (ca 8/33 in SE, more in NW) towards the end. 

 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Jiries
29 April 2024 10:33:26

Still looking encouraging for a bit of warmth next week.

April has been above average but largely due to the incessant cloud and wind keeping night time temps up.

Please bring on the 240 hour charts!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



April look well below average, did not see demands for fans and AC units fitted in this month, most of us using the heating and winter clothes.  At least the latest show we are heading to right direction for some real warmth that give us true above average temps  May for London is 18 to 19C so need to be 20c or more to pass as above average.   
marcus72
29 April 2024 13:46:37


April has been above average but largely due to the incessant cloud and wind keeping night time temps up.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Yep, the temperature plot from Chimet on the south coast says a lot .

11°C day and night for the last 12 hours 🙄.....
https://chimet.co.uk/(S(mr2o5ujjluhpyx55lo1iyov5))/temp.aspx 
Langstone, SE Hampshire
Rob K
29 April 2024 15:19:26
Not been a bad day here in Hants with plenty of sun albeit still a nagging wind. Tomorrow looks rather nice.

Next week is still very much up in the air though. 6Z GFS brings in a northerly influence once again. Hope the 12Zs don't follow suit.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
30 April 2024 07:11:00
V mixed output this morning:
UKMO = warm high pressure 
GEM = warm high pressure 
GFS = more mixed but OK.
ECM = horror show 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
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30 April 2024 08:02:27
WX temps not as positive as shown yesterday - Europe getting a little milder over the next two weeks, but anything significantly warmer staying around the Mediterranean. In week 1, rain in a band from the Atlantic (just touching S Britain) across France, and on eastwards to Turkey, the really dry area being Scandinavia. In week 2, this area shrinks and becomes centred on the Balkans, some rain in Norway, Britain rather dry.

GFS - the current LP near W Britain moving S, filling, and becoming a weak feature 1010mb covering France Mon 6th. HP moves across from Norway to cover Britain 1025mb Fri 10th, pushing the LP further south, but withdraws to the SW after that weekend as LP swings in from the Atlantic 995mb N Ireland Mon 13th resulting in a broad area of LP around the N Sea later on.

ECM - although the current LP fills, it does not move to France; by comparison with GFS, pressure remains quite high there and Britain is more affected by troughs ahead of an LP near Greenland. These troughs split form the parent LP and by Fri 10th form a separate LP over Norway with a broad ridge of HP from Iceland to France including most of S & W Britain.

GEFS - mild near Thu 2nd and later around Thu 6th with some rain at these times esp in SE, less rain in Scotland which also hangs on to milder weather between these dates. Little agreement on temps from ens members after 6th but nearly all are dry. 

GEM has elements of both GFS & ECM; like ECM there is a pressure rise over France and LP on the Atlantic but like GFS the LP stays well ti the west and there is a strong pressure rise over Britain.
 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Rob K
30 April 2024 15:55:29
One step forward, two steps back. GEM seems to be the only one still bringing in anything decent, even UKM has flipped to more crud.

Hopefully this unsettled spring will give way to summer when summer is supposed to be!

(Today has been rather nice though - only the second alfresco lunchbreak of the season!)
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
nsrobins
01 May 2024 07:49:40
Quite an unusual setup tonight with an unseasonably high ThetaE plume advecting north and west into southern UK. The rather low saturation and high CAPE suggest thunderstorms may become surface based into the early hours.
Could see a classic plume type event which would make a change after the cool, wet almost continuous autumn we’ve endured since last October. 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
DEW
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01 May 2024 07:49:41
WX summary temps showing Spring variability. Week 1, mild weather appearing patchily from the east, reaching Holland, replaced in week 2 with a thrust from the south reaching the N coast of France while cool/cold weather from the north affects countries from Poland to the Balkans. Britain on the sidelines and not seeing much change. Week 1 , a band of rain Britain - France - Alps - Turkey re-forms into an arc in week 2 N Spain - Italy - Ukraine - W Russia, with Britain and N Sea areas very dry.

GFS Op - current LP moving first S and then SW to be clear of Britain by Fri 3rd, but not really going away, coming back to nibble at western regions with support from a deeper LP near Greenland until Tue 6th. Pressure then rises to cover the country 1030mb Thu 9th, but with LP over France never far from S England. This lasts to Tue 13th when a broad trough composed of the remnants of Greenland and France LPs forms affecting mainly W/SW districts.

ECM - that LP does move away on Fri 3rd but revives more definitely 1000mb Brittany Sun 5th before filling and drifting NE across Britain. There is then a strong rise in pressure as in GFS 1030 mb again on Thu 9th but instead of beicoming a broad centre over Britain, shifts to become a N-S ridge with highest pressure over Shetland Sat 11th - and more onshore winds for the E coast :(

GEFS - in the S a brief dip to cooler on Fri 3rd but otherwise and elsewhere on the mild side (not dramatically warm) through to 17th, fair agreement from ens members though control fancies a colder outcome later. Some rain until Wed 7th in S esp SW, just a brief splash in the NE,  but then dry in nearly all runs throughout away from the NW and even there not much rain.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Rob K
01 May 2024 08:54:09

One step forward, two steps back. GEM seems to be the only one still bringing in anything decent, even UKM has flipped to more crud.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



GFS 0Z not looking too bad. I've got a long weekend in the West Country at the end of next week so hoping for something settled!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ozone_aurora
01 May 2024 09:14:24
Cautiously optimistic for settled weather for at least between 9-12 May according to GFS, but still a long way off; it needs more consistent runs, and won't be surprised if next runs brings foul weather.
DEW
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02 May 2024 07:06:16
WX temp charts looking like yesterdays with, in week 1, milder and springlike weather moving across from the east, getting to Germany before being overtaken by much milder air coming up from the south into France. Britain milder, but anything that could be called warm staying the other side of the Channel. The compensating cold air noted yesterday moving S over eastern Europe is no longer there. Rain in week 1 from France (a little in S England) to the Balkans to Turkey; in week 2 still in France and also some in E Baltic; not as absolutely dry for Britain as shown yesterday.

GFS Op - complex LP at first over S Britain/N France, filling slowly (though with a short-lived revival 995mb Sun 5th Cornwall) and moving away by Wed 8th as HP takes over, building to 1025mb N Sea Sat 11th. LP 995mb appearing on the Atlantic Tue 14th, at first reinforcing the S-lies but gradually moving to Britain and forming a broad trough linked to LP N Norway by Thu 16th, NE-lies for Scotland, SW-lies for England.

ECM - similar to GFS; the Cornish LP is not a separate feature and the HP Sat 11th is present as a ridge from the Azores rather than a centre over the N Sea, with SW-lies for Scotland.

GEFS - temps descending to norm and staying there to Tue 7th with good ens agreement,  probably milder until Tue 14th but less agreed, then back to norm. Rain, in S to Tue 7th, in Scotland only at the end of this period , after which mostly dry until much later on and at that stage more likely in N. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Ally Pally Snowman
02 May 2024 07:11:49
Nice ECM this morning,  this is what we want to see. Just out of the reliable still though.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
02 May 2024 07:31:53

Nice ECM this morning,  this is what we want to see. Just out of the reliable still though.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Even on the apps now showing decent temps of 19-21C next week only tomorrow down to 13C after today max ov 20C expected but jump back up to average then above average next week.   Let hope we see more of this pattern to persist over the summer months.
+1
DEW
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03 May 2024 07:47:40
WX temps - NW Europe teetering on the edge of being mild, a few 'yellow areas' here and there. Week 2 shows more development; S Spain hot, Britain a little milder, cool area around the Baltic retreating and the 'blue area' almost gone from the far north. Rain in both weeks mainly over continental Europe, heavier in week 2; dry in Scandinavia with this dry area just about extending to Britain, esp the east.

GFS Op - current trough across C Britain becoming more localised as small LP 995mb forms off Cornwall Sun 5th, and all LP for Britain swept away by Wed 8th 1025mb over Britain (but large area of LP extending from W Russia to Alps). HP continues to be main influence for Britain to Mon 13th though slipping slowly E-wards, finally displaced by LP Rockall 990mb Tue 14th. The centre of this LP stays out to the NW but projects troughs across Britain until Sun 19th when Azores high moves in to link with HP which has persisted over N Norway.

ECM - similar to GFS though initial trough just fades away (no Cornish LP) 

GEFS - sharp drop to norm in S, less marked decline in N but then becoming mild everywhere (quite good agreement on 3 to 4C above norm by Mon 13th), mean declining slowly after that as agreement breaks up (op run esp pessimistic). Some rain in the S to Tue 7th, then mostly dry until Tue 14th when rain appears in most but not all runs, more so in N. 
 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
White Meadows
03 May 2024 21:17:01
Short lived burst of ‘heat’ (average temps) next week followed by a return to dismal damp conditions that have plagued the entire UK spring. 

Perhaps June will deliver the first 20 degrees on the south coast of the year but the jury’s out with the broad scale pattern I.e. Scandy blocking just what we crave in Dec-Feb.

Quite astonishing in these ‘modern’ times. 
 
TheJudge
04 May 2024 06:41:05

Short lived burst of ‘heat’ (average temps) next week followed by a return to dismal damp conditions that have plagued the entire UK spring. 

Perhaps June will deliver the first 20 degrees on the south coast of the year but the jury’s out with the broad scale pattern I.e. Scandy blocking just what we crave in Dec-Feb.

Quite astonishing in these ‘modern’ times. 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



I think you may be incorrect on your statement, I would expect quite widely temps to reach above 20 degrees within the next week, to wipe out May within 4 days of the month starting is quite ridiculous, we will see.
Barby 551 ft above sea level
+1
DEW
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04 May 2024 06:42:45
WX temp - slow creep of warmer weather northwards, reaching C France and across to Hungary by week 2; Britain is little changed; the very cold weather around the E Baltic warms up but only just enough to remove the 'blue isotherms'. Generally wet over continental Europe in week 1 moving to E Europe in week2 though leaving an area over n Spain; britain dry becoming very dry in the S.

GFS Op - LP over Britain filling and HP developing by Wed 8th 1035mb Scotland (after the BH, natch!) this HP the main feature until  end (Mon 20th)  though around Fri 17th further W allowing LP Scandinavia to bring in some NW-lies before resuming.

ECM - to Sat 11th similar to GFS (I'm going out so haven't time to wait for later download; yesterdays'12z suggested a breakdown on the HP after Mon 13th)

GEFS - becoming mild and very dry around Sun 12th before back to norm and some chances of rain later esp in north.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Essan
04 May 2024 07:00:14

Short lived burst of ‘heat’ (average temps) next week followed by a return to dismal damp conditions that have plagued the entire UK spring. 

Perhaps June will deliver the first 20 degrees on the south coast of the year but the jury’s out with the broad scale pattern I.e. Scandy blocking just what we crave in Dec-Feb.

Quite astonishing in these ‘modern’ times. 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Met Office predicting temps of 21c here later in the week (and they tend to under do them a week out) - that's 3.5c above the May average (17.4c) - even today should be nicely above average.
Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
DEW
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05 May 2024 07:35:02
WX temp charts showing a steady progress of warmer weather northwards across Europe, even becoming quite hot in the Danube Basin. Britain is on the edge, between a warmer NW Europe and still quite a cool Scandinavia. Small amounts of rain in week 1 across Europe, Britain mainly dry; in week 2 heavier rain develops for France and Germany, also affecting S Britain.

GFS Op - current LP filling and moving away to C Europe by Tue, HP well in charge 1025mb covering Britain Wed 8th (perhaps some trailing weak fronts for N Scotland). This HP persists until Mon 13th when LP edges in from the Atlantic 1000mb off Cornwall Wed 15th moving slowly to France with HP over Scotland and E-lies for England. By Sun 19th the HP has dispersed and Britain is under a cooler shallow LP 1015mb before HP starts to build back from the SW.

ECM - similar to GFS though 'HP over Scotland' is less marked, more the edge of an Atlantic HP.

GEFS - a little rain at first, least in NW England, then good agreement on dry with rising temps to Mon 13th. After this some extreme variation in temp (in the S, from 15C above norm to the op at 6C below on Sat 18th) and sporadic rain in small amounts in most ens members but with one or two showing big totals. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4

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