GFS has for days been showing that Atlantic trough having a lot of influence over us as we move through the weekend and into next week.
Other models had, at times, downplayed that influence as they showed higher pressure around the UK keeping the worst of it at a bit of an arm's length.
Typically, the GFS solution now looks most likely, with other models moving towards that broad evolution. GFS and ECM both plant the trough over the UK for a while; GEM moves it through more quickly.
ECM keeps the trough over the UK until the end of a thoroughly miserable run.
GFS into FI moves it off eastwards... then replaces it with another low, which gets trapped over the UK between high pressure to our south and north (as happens annoyingly frequently, we are in the bad and very wet spot between high pressures).
GEM's FI is a different evolution, with a big low centred over Iceland/Faroe but spreading its influence as far as NE Russia in the east and to the UK Midlands to the south. The AH is trying to nudge into the UK from the SW, though, and the southern half of the UK would be mostly dry - but bracing westerly winds.
Martin
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