theweatheroutlook

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Chunky Pea
30 May 2024 15:55:09

Cool? i mean this week has been a little unsettled but 4/7 days have reached at least 20C, and only one failed to reach 18C. For late May that's at least average perhaps a little above! 
 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



About 13c here today and it doesn't feel anyway cool at all. Would love if it stayed at these temps all Summer. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
+1
Saint Snow
30 May 2024 16:08:08

About 13c here today and it doesn't feel anyway cool at all. Would love if it stayed at these temps all Summer. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 




How did I know that the 'Like' would be from Retron 😁

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+3
Ally Pally Snowman
30 May 2024 19:28:44
Shocking output for the start of June. Wet and cool . HLB hanging around like a bad smell.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Joe Bloggs
30 May 2024 20:55:07
Impressive northerly plunge on the 12z ECM. 

Exact opposite of what happens in winter - its potency and longevity upgrades as we get closer. 🤣🤣🤣
 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
30 May 2024 21:00:22
Looks like we can write off first 10 days of June. If HLB doesn't go away we could be on for a 60s Summer.  Wet and cool. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
30 May 2024 21:09:53

we could be on for a 60s Summer. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Are you talking about the decade or the expected temps in Fahrenheit?

😊

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
White Meadows
30 May 2024 22:07:46

About 13c here today and it doesn't feel anyway cool at all. Would love if it stayed at these temps all Summer. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Be nice if it didn’t feel cool in less than double layers though, eh?
I stand firm in that this June is not going to be ‘flaming’ in the slightest. 
 
Gandalf The White
30 May 2024 22:11:51

Be nice if it didn’t feel cool in less than double layers though, eh?
I stand firm in that this June is not going to be ‘flaming’ in the slightest. 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Which models go out over a month, let alone with any accuracy?
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Chunky Pea
30 May 2024 23:04:08

Be nice if it didn’t feel cool in less than double layers though, eh?
I stand firm in that this June is not going to be ‘flaming’ in the slightest. 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Not a fan of double layers no matter the season or temp. Today was very comfortable in a teeshirt. Not cold, not warm. Stiff enough breeze to prevent the air from becoming stagnant. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
picturesareme
31 May 2024 01:26:44

About 13c here today and it doesn't feel anyway cool at all. Would love if it stayed at these temps all Summer. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



It's 2:30am and its still just about warmer than that. It would make for an awful day time high at this time of year... unless you're retron.
White Meadows
31 May 2024 05:08:25

It's 2:30am and its still just about warmer than that. It would make for an awful day time high at this time of year... unless you're retron.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Sadly though this typifies the story of spring 24: mild nights and lack of any proper daytime warmth. Just a soup of boring low teens, often windy, wet and mostly dull. 
currently the pattern looks locked in for at least a fortnight as others have said, most likely due to HLB and absence our old friend the Azores High. 
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
31 May 2024 07:38:26
Chilly Ecm this morning,  GFS offers a little more warmth for the South at least but its slim pickings.  Can the CET actually be below the 61-90 average for the first 10 days? 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
31 May 2024 07:40:56
WX temp charts like yesterday's, the unusually warm weather over the E Baltic being displaced by something unusually cold, while further west warm conditions are moving up through France and affecting at least England in week 2. (But it's not a stable forecast - last night the chart showed the whole of Europe N of the Med becoming cool). Week 1 rain for the Alps and E/NE of there; week 2 further S and affecting Pyrenees , Alps and Balkans. Britain esp the S fairly dry.

GFS OP - HP nudging in from the west and just about retaining control over Britain until Mon 10th, though LP never far from NE Scotland (some cool NW-lies) or SW England (thundery weather over France?). From the 10th the traditional pattern of a ridge from the Azores giving fine weather in the S and unsettled in the far N.

ECM - similar to GFS but has the LP off NE Scotland deeper and more extensive esp around Wed 5th before it moves away.

GEM - follows ECM

GEFS - warmer until Sat 4th then cooler until Mon 10th, the latter more pronounced and with better ens agreement in Scotland, after which a general spread either side of norm. A little rain in the E at first, then dry until 4th in Scotland or 7th in England, after which increasing chances of rain anywhere
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
Saint Snow
31 May 2024 09:01:17
Subtle changes from recently - and a little more divergence after this weekend.

Each of GFS, ECM and GEM stick with the initial phase of high pressure building in over the UK from the west, then a low to move over the top of if, causing it to decline as we start next week.

Whereas previously the models had aligned to have that low then sinking broadly SSE'wards down the North Sea, all now show rising pressure over Central Europe, which blocks this southwards route for the big low and keeps it bottled generally to the NNE/NE of the UK. 

GFS spins an active front south over the UK through the middle of next week, but then quite quickly fills the low, causing it to fragment into a messy picture from Iceland to Scandinavia (wet over Scotland, drier as you move south under a flabby ridge). It then builds the retreated high back in over the UK from the SW as we hit next weekend. Into FI and, after briefly sitting over the UK, the high then links northwards with a ridging Greenland High. A low well to our north severs that link and a resultant weak high over the UK is soon toppled SE'wards by a new train of Atlantic lows

ECM keeps the influence of the initial high over the UK for an extra day, but then has the low much more active and persistent, sitting just north of/over Shetland. The whole of the UK is unsettled through the middle of the week. All the while, the high sits in the mid-North Atlantic to our west and eventually drifts back eastwards. Right at the end of the run it makes it back over the UK - but there's a nasty low with a huge front stretching S from Greenland to level with Southern Spain waiting to hit us.

GEM also keeps the low intact, but meanders it around the Norwegian Sea, so it's [wet] influence on the UK waxes and wanes through next week. GEM then, unhelpfully, spawns a little low over France and migrates it northwards in time for next weekend. It dissipates pretty quickly, leaving most of the UK more under the influence of the high camped off the SW tip of Ireland.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Ally Pally Snowman
31 May 2024 11:52:39
Output continues to be between underwhelming and vile. 25c looks unlikely for the first half of June. Which is rubbish 🗑. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Retron
31 May 2024 12:48:39

Output continues to be between underwhelming and vile. 25c looks unlikely for the first half of June. Which is rubbish 🗑. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Average high in Reading in mid-June (91-20): 20.4C. Saying it's "vile" because it's not 25C (4.5C above average) is frankly hilarious - think you'd be better off in the moaning thread!

Or put it another way... on a day like today, when it's been wet, windy and cloudy all morning, with the wind from the NW at that, and only just  brightening up now, it's just 3C below average... what I wouldn't give to see a day where it was 4.5C below average, but it's frankly impossible this time of year down here. It'll warm up further as soon as the sun comes out, of course, as it's damned strong this time of year, almost as strong as it gets in the UK.

EDIT: Remember, folks, we're not in the Med. Just as we're not Norway in the winter, neither are we southern France in the summer. I do wonder what the whinging would be like if we were to get an 80s summer, mind you... the 61-90 Reading mid-June average high was 19.4, and even in July and August it was only 21C!

 
Leysdown, north Kent
Jiries
31 May 2024 13:04:08

Output continues to be between underwhelming and vile. 25c looks unlikely for the first half of June. Which is rubbish 🗑. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Surely it will waste potential warm with longest daylight hours in June.  So glad the conseratory is a game changer like today so cold and unexpected overvast skies just becausek UK climate cannot cope with 15-16C under full sun on 31st May.  I saw the horrible bank of thin dirty clouds roll in as soon the sun came up.  That the sign of the HP cloud enter here this morning so it need to sod off or replace new clearer HP.

The models need to stop play games, check the date which is June and give us well over due summery settled patterns.  
cultman1
31 May 2024 13:39:33
I don't call 13 degrees with added windchill from the N gusting at 30 mph in London normal  for late May . This sceanario is well below what we should expect for this time of year . Going forward despite high pressure moving in the temperature as we move into the working  week shows once again a dip in temperature thanks to brisk winds at least for the SE 
+2
White Meadows
31 May 2024 14:41:33
25c remains a distant memory confined to 2023 most likely for the next 3 weeks with this awful  pattern were stuck in. Usually we’re talking about the 2nd or 3rd instance of 30c by this point in the year. No we’re not in the Med or Norway at least they are experiencing average or above sunny conditions. 
Unlike the relentless dull murk that will characterise Spring 2024 for the record books. Not cold, but It's been cloudier than normal in March, April and May and as a consequence, frosts have been rare.
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
31 May 2024 15:07:28

25c remains a distant memory confined to 2023 most likely for the next 3 weeks with this awful  pattern were stuck in. Usually we’re talking about the 2nd or 3rd instance of 30c by this point in the year. No we’re not in the Med or Norway at least they are experiencing average or above sunny conditions. 
Unlike the relentless dull murk that will characterise Spring 2024 for the record books. Not cold, but It's been cloudier than normal in March, April and May and as a consequence, frosts have been rare.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



And very wet too of course. At least in this part of the UK. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
01 June 2024 07:07:49
Very optimistic GFS this morning sadly other models less so. Basically GFS has less HLB so the high builds over the UK. It can be very good at spotting pattern changes before the other  models. But feels like a long shot atm.

GFS 168h = Summer 
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=0&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 


ECM 168h = Autumn
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
01 June 2024 07:11:04
WX charts accentuate the temp trend noted yesterday with cold weather driving south over Finland and the eastern Baltic while by week 2 warmth moves north over France and Germany, even to some extent over England esp the SE (Scotland may have to wait). Rain in week 1 for the Danube Basin up to the Baltic, in week 2 in separate patches for France, N Atlantic and Russia, touching Britain in the far SE and far NW.

GFS Op - HP nudging in from the west for a few days but retreating again as LP near Faeroes brings in NW-lies Wed 5th, HP then re-asserts itself to cover Britain 1025mb Sat 8th. This moves eastwards and weakens as a trough develops near Rockall and as the following week progresses the pattern is for fine weather in the SE, unsettled in the NW, but with the trough dipping further south and linking with slack LP over France at times.

ECM - agrees with GFS to Wed 5th, but HP then stays out to the SW, and depressingly the Faeroese LP drops southwards, filling, and lies off the east coast of Scotland 1000mb Sun 9th.

GEM - agrees with ECM but also throws in an extra LP approaching from the SW Mon 10th.

GEFS - temps near norm now, cool Wed 5th for a few days esp in NE, after which ens agreement breaks up but most runs near norm (operational run is a wildly hot outlier on Wed 12th). Rain increasingly likely from Fri 7th in SE, from Wed 5th in NW, in small amounts at first.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
briggsy6
01 June 2024 09:40:15
The trouble this year has been LP has dominated much of time. Any HP has been transient (lasting a few days only) and usually centered too far out into the Atlantic allowing cloud to topple over the top and down over the UK. We need the Jet Stream to b*gger off north across Iceland and then we might just get some decent Summer weather.
Location: Uxbridge
cultman1
01 June 2024 10:36:14

The trouble this year has been LP has dominated much of time. Any HP has been transient (lasting a few days only) and usually centered too far out into the Atlantic allowing cloud to topple over the top and down over the UK. We need the Jet Stream to b*gger off north across Iceland and then we might just get some decent Summer weather.

Originally Posted by: briggsy6 

unlikely in my opinion for at least the next couple of weeks especially in the East 
Ally Pally Snowman
01 June 2024 10:56:12
Sadly the GFS 6z has the HLB back and we have a northerly flow for 2 weeks. Very cool. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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