theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

Zubzero
24 May 2024 10:45:12

Hmm, a message appeared mentioning a new set of forecast data on the MetO site - it took me to here.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/enhanced-forecast-weather-data-trial 

Obviously I turned it on. It's impressive - my complaints about the UKV data they currently use are that a) it underestimates maximum temperatures on a consistent basis and b) it underestimates the dewpoint.

Both of those points have been adjusted in the new data, whatever it is that they're using: today's high has gone from 19 to 21, for example, and the reality was 21.5.

Old:
https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/met0.jpg 
UserPostedImage

New:
https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/met1.jpg 
UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Retron 



I've been useing  and comparing for a few weeks now it dose seem better then the previous version. It might be using UKEP, that's in development for the 1st 36 hours?
Zubzero
24 May 2024 10:56:52

I have been using and comparing these for a few months, I also found the temperatures better. The old model tended to underestimate greatly at 5-6 days and slowly upgrade temps ( all other things being equal) but now it's better.  Symbols still not great though for rain events though. 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 



The rain symbols make zero sense, for example you can't have 50% chance of heavy rain, or 95% chance of light rain. The symbol changes with the % chance of precipitation.
Retron
24 May 2024 11:13:41

I've been useing  and comparing for a few weeks now it dose seem better then the previous version. It might be using UKEP, that's in development for the 1st 36 hours?

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


There's something more than just UKEP being used - note the forecast for Sunday in my screenshots (72 hours out at the time) - the temperature rose 3C, which is significant. I wonder if there might be better use of MOGREPS, perhaps using the most likely cluster rather than just the mean/median?
Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
25 May 2024 05:14:41
Terrible output again this morning,  settled warm weather v limited over the next 2 weeks. HLB on steroids again,  could this be the year without a summer, an 80s throwback where we don't hit 30c? It will happen again at some point maybe this is the year.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
25 May 2024 05:37:50

Terrible output again this morning,  settled warm weather v limited over the next 2 weeks. HLB on steroids again,  could this be the year without a summer, an 80s throwback where we don't hit 30c? It will happen again at some point maybe this is the year.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



I was thinking that before I saw what you have just posted. I hope not.
Furthermore, I recall back in the winter Jan/Feb? when Spain had a warm/hot spell, some were thinking "If it is this warm now, just think how hot it will be in April and May". From what I've seen, it hasn't been that hot in the Iberian peninsular this spring. So far.
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
+2
Ally Pally Snowman
25 May 2024 06:34:51

I was thinking that before I saw what you have just posted. I hope not.
Furthermore, I recall back in the winter Jan/Feb? when Spain had a warm/hot spell, some were thinking "If it is this warm now, just think how hot it will be in April and May". From what I've seen, it hasn't been that hot in the Iberian peninsular this spring. So far.

Originally Posted by: NMA 



Yes a poor summer would be genuinely depressing hopefully doesn't happen but output atm is a worry. 

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
25 May 2024 07:02:37
Ecm ends up OK again at day 8, but it's been really poor in the 192-240h range recently.  The chances of HP settling nicely over the UK with this much HLB about is low imo. We will need a lot of luck to get here.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=192&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
25 May 2024 07:28:45
Let's be positive,  the GFS Control also slaps a big HP over the UK . 192h

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=0&time=192&lid=C00&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Jiries
25 May 2024 09:21:26

Yes a poor summer would be genuinely depressing hopefully doesn't happen but output atm is a worry. 

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Why this stupid global warming that meant to push all the HP belt that run from Azores to the Med had jump over to the poles instead of over the Uk lattitude zone with occasional brief unsettled spells.    Don't understand why the HP over the poles last for months when it only last a week to few weeks max at our lattitude zone.  
LeedsLad123
25 May 2024 09:46:27

Terrible output again this morning,  settled warm weather v limited over the next 2 weeks. HLB on steroids again,  could this be the year without a summer, an 80s throwback where we don't hit 30c? It will happen again at some point maybe this is the year.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


IMO I don’t think a year where it fails to reach 30C is even possible anymore. Even the worst summers over the past 20 years have exceeded 30C i.e 2007, 2012. Likewise I’m not sure a genuinely cold summer is possible anymore.

Last July for example was terribly wet and dull but it was still warmer than average. It would take something exceptional to get an 80s-style cold summer this day and age. 
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
+1
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
25 May 2024 17:50:31

Yes a poor summer would be genuinely depressing hopefully doesn't happen but output atm is a worry. 

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

It isn’t taking much for the temperature to rise though. A bit of sun and it soon goes up. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
25 May 2024 18:41:08

IMO I don’t think a year where it fails to reach 30C is even possible anymore. Even the worst summers over the past 20 years have exceeded 30C i.e 2007, 2012. Likewise I’m not sure a genuinely cold summer is possible anymore.

Last July for example was terribly wet and dull but it was still warmer than average. It would take something exceptional to get an 80s-style cold summer this day and age. 

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 



07 and 08 only just made it by 0.1c and 0.2c I think on one day.  So for me it's definitely possible. Would take a horrendous Summer mind.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Zubzero
25 May 2024 20:02:20

07 and 08 only just made it by 0.1c and 0.2c I think on one day.  So for me it's definitely possible. Would take a horrendous Summer mind.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



All I know is IMBY-these days it takes a unique set up to get an average month CET wise, let alone below. Wonder what kind of set up it would require to get a summer 1-2C below average¿?

Don't seem possible anymore. 
David M Porter
26 May 2024 08:41:44

IMO I don’t think a year where it fails to reach 30C is even possible anymore. Even the worst summers over the past 20 years have exceeded 30C i.e 2007, 2012. Likewise I’m not sure a genuinely cold summer is possible anymore.

Last July for example was terribly wet and dull but it was still warmer than average. It would take something exceptional to get an 80s-style cold summer this day and age. 

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 



Last July was still warmer than average as you say, but only by about 0.2C if memory serves.

Going back a little further, I seem to recall that July 2015 returned a either a close to average or slightly below average CET overall despite it starting with the hottest July day on record in the UK at the time.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
cultman1
26 May 2024 09:53:56
This coming week continues with very changeable and coolish weather with no sign of things settling down anytime soon. The Met Office long ranger carries this theme on well into June.
Matty H
26 May 2024 10:22:39
The complete and utter dross continues for the foreseeable 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Brian Gaze
26 May 2024 10:26:30

Last July was still warmer than average as you say, but only by about 0.2C if memory serves.

Going back a little further, I seem to recall that July 2015 returned a either a close to average or slightly below average CET overall despite it starting with the hottest July day on record in the UK at the time.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



CET Jul 2015: 16°C
1961-1990 0.1°C
1971-2000 -0.2°C
1981-2010 -0.4°C
1991-2020 -0.8°C
1659-2020 0°C
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Ally Pally Snowman
26 May 2024 10:32:04
HP does look like it's wants to build in from about 2nd June.  So a glimmer. Most output then has HP being sucked up to Greenland.  That rarely actually happens. So we might see a stronger/longer UK high being forecast soon.
A Straw anyway.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Spring Sun Winter Dread
26 May 2024 12:04:30
Summer 2011 was notably cool, the coldest since the mid 1980s.
Notable for a severe shortage of 25c+ days. 2012, 07 and 08 weren't much better 
sunny coast
26 May 2024 18:34:38

Summer 2011 was notably cool, the coldest since the mid 1980s.
Notable for a severe shortage of 25c+ days. 2012, 07 and 08 weren't much better 

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 



Summer 2007 was preceded by an incredible April and 2011 the same plus a very hot May 
. 
Matty H
27 May 2024 09:13:03
It’s so shat no one can even be bothered to comment on it 

GFS op tries to build high pressure from the south at the end. I haven’t looked at the ens so no idea if it has any support. ECM is crap. High pressure migrates west and plunges us back into rubbish
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
27 May 2024 10:19:21
I'm actually cautiously encouraged by the latest charts. Both GFS and ECM Ops runs have a ridge of  high pressure pushing in later this week. Then they both go for a brief strong northerly in the 9 to 12 day range. On GFS this manages to force out the HLB and encourage high pressure to build in from the south west.
Cautious as I have no confidence this will still show in any of the future model runs! 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Joe Bloggs
28 May 2024 07:44:36
Quite funny.

I’m logging on and hoping for the retrogression to go pear shaped and for high pressure to remain flabby over the UK rather than move to Greenland. The exact opposite of what I’d want in the winter.

However - this time - it won’t go pear shaped and we’ll get a northerly. It’s called the law of Sod. 🤣

Still - a few days of high pressure is on the cards at least.

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
David M Porter
28 May 2024 08:52:00

Summer 2007 was preceded by an incredible April and 2011 the same plus a very hot May 
. 

Originally Posted by: sunny coast 



Agree about April 2011; the Easter weekend that year was almost like mid-summer. May started well where I live but IIRC the weather broke down towards the end of the first week of the month and never really recovered properly either during the remainder of May or the summer itself. Much the same happened in 2007 and no-one will need reminding how that summer turned out.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
overland
28 May 2024 09:42:28
It has been a pretty poor spring, winter, autumn and even most of last summer wasn't great, but are things finally settling down?! Looking at the BBC symbols on their long range forecast, for here there is not a single raindrop indicated from the 31 May to the end of the run on 10 June. For the last 10 months its been rare to find a single day without a raindrop symbol and, although it is never particularly warm, it is a big improvement.

Appreciate the BBC outlook should come with a disclaimer, but even looking at the GEFS, other than a one day wonder, there is very little rain showing up.
Mumbles, Swansea. 80m asl

Remove ads from site

Ads