So to yesterday, the halfway point of the month, we are on about 12°C (await the HadCET update soon). To get 14 we'd need to avarge 16 for the second half- a tall order if you consider there have only been 3 such for the whole month since 1976 (almost a half century).
Except for three supporting factors: the second half of June is likely to be warmer, as the continent heats up, the ocean starts to warm a little and the sun reaches its zenith, suggesting a 16C second half is more likely than a 16C first half or whole month; the second being that those 3 times have all occurred in the last 7 years, reflecting climatic developments perhaps. The final being, as Willow says, that models currently suggest something warmer in the wings, maybe starting tomorrow in the south and lasting.
So not fully written off yet, hopefully.
Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle