We've all gone to high. 14c looks unlikely atm.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

maybe starting tomorrow in the south and lasting.
So not fully written off yet, hopefully.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

So to yesterday, the halfway point of the month, we are on about 12°C (await the HadCET update soon). To get 14 we'd need to avarge 16 for the second half- a tall order if you consider there have only been 3 such for the whole month since 1976 (almost a half century). 


Except for three supporting factors: the second half of June is likely to be warmer, as the continent heats up, the ocean starts to warm a little and the sun reaches its zenith, suggesting a 16C second half is more likely than a 16C first half or whole month; the second being that those 3 times have all occurred in the last 7 years, reflecting climatic developments perhaps. The final being, as Willow says,  that models currently suggest something warmer in the wings, maybe starting tomorrow in the south and lasting.
So not fully written off yet, hopefully.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

This is the table of Junes since 1772 that are this cold (12.1C) by 15th and what the final CET ended up as. Only 2 14's in there !

Originally Posted by: lanky 

Does anyone have a record of when 30C was first hit over the last 10 or 20 years or so.

We could feasibly go the entire month without getting there, is that unusual these days?
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

To answer my own question. The most common time seems to be around now, or the last week of June.

Occasionally its in July (most recently 2021 where it happened on the 17th), and occasionally its May (most recently in 2012 where it happened on the 25th). One thing that seems noteworthy is that in late may or early June it seems fairly easy to see temperatures in the 26-28C range but getting the extra couple of degrees to 30C is a challenge.

I haven't found an August yet but I've only gone back to 2009 so far.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I have this data for 1 site (Kew Gardens) which goes back 140 years up to 2022

I realise this is not exactly what you want as on some years the 30C date will have already been achieved somewhere else in the UK but Kew is generally amongst the highest temps on hot days so it won't be miles out for most years !

 

Originally Posted by: lanky