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four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
15 June 2024 09:46:35
10.5C (-2.8C) here at 15th - halfway through.
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
15 June 2024 09:53:46
It has been well below normal since mid-May the average for past 4 weeks is only 10.6C
Tim A
15 June 2024 10:17:49
11.2c here, chilly. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Gavin D
15 June 2024 12:39:46
Hadley

12.1 to the 14th

2.0c below the 61 to 90 average
1.6c below the 81 to 10 average
JMM2005
15 June 2024 12:40:35
Hi All 

June's predictions are as follows

windywillow                        14.33
All time CET average        14.34
ap snowman                       14.50
1991 - 2020 Average        14.64
grandad                              14.70
Spring Sun Winter Dread   14.70
bolty                                   14.80
Saint Snow                         14.80
Splinter                               14.98 
stormchaser                       15.05          
sussex snow magnet          15.10
taylor1740                          15.10
artzeman                            15.20
kendalian                           15.30            
Col                                     15.39
rickm                                  15.45
hungry tiger                       15.50
jmm2005                            15.60       
gezm                                  15.65
snowshoe                           15.80      
scillydave                            15.85
Gavin D                              15.90
bertwhistle                         15.91
frank h                               16.05
Dickieboy68                      16.17
dingle rob                        16.20
lanky                                16.28
redmoons                        16.95
 caz                                    17.00

Again, sorry its so late 
Justin
Brighton seafront
Webcam of the beach and Brighton's palace pier
https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/united-kingdom/england/brighton/brighton-pier.html 
Ally Pally Snowman
15 June 2024 13:01:29
We've all gone to high. 14c looks unlikely atm.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
15 June 2024 19:54:45

We've all gone to high. 14c looks unlikely atm.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Yes!  It looks like we’ve all gone too low. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Windy Willow
16 June 2024 07:05:55
OOpsie, I can't believe I chose the coolest temp 😂 and we've not even achieved anything close to that as yet, but there's still time as it looks like we may start to warm up towards the end of this week.
South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

Don't feed the Trolls!! When starved of attention they return to their dark caves or the dark recesses of bridges and will turn back to stone, silent again!
ARTzeman
16 June 2024 09:22:20
  IMANSEF22            13.0c           INicks' 1BATH75    12.6c
Metcheck                  12.45c         Anomaly       -1.70c
Netweather               12.93c         Anomaly       -1.18c 
Peasedown St John   12.81c         Anomaly       -2.39c.




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Bertwhistle
16 June 2024 12:59:58
So to yesterday, the halfway point of the month, we are on about 12°C (await the HadCET update soon). To get 14 we'd need to avarge 16 for the second half- a tall order if you consider there have only been 3 such for the whole month since 1976 (almost a half century). 


Except for three supporting factors: the second half of June is likely to be warmer, as the continent heats up, the ocean starts to warm a little and the sun reaches its zenith, suggesting a 16C second half is more likely than a 16C first half or whole month; the second being that those 3 times have all occurred in the last 7 years, reflecting climatic developments perhaps. The final being, as Willow says,  that models currently suggest something warmer in the wings, maybe starting tomorrow in the south and lasting.
So not fully written off yet, hopefully.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Retron
16 June 2024 13:18:53

maybe starting tomorrow in the south and lasting.
So not fully written off yet, hopefully.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


Starting today, more like... An effortless 20.9, so far, matching the 21 that the MetO raw had as a max for today. Might well squeeze a 22 too...

(And the GFS' 18 was, of course, rubbish as usual.)

EDIT: The last time it was this warm was 9 days ago, when it reached 21.5 here.
 
Leysdown, north Kent
Gavin D
16 June 2024 13:45:27
Hadley

12.1 to the 15th

2.0c below the 61 to 90 average
1.6c below the 81 to 10 average
lanky
16 June 2024 15:40:38

So to yesterday, the halfway point of the month, we are on about 12°C (await the HadCET update soon). To get 14 we'd need to avarge 16 for the second half- a tall order if you consider there have only been 3 such for the whole month since 1976 (almost a half century). 


Except for three supporting factors: the second half of June is likely to be warmer, as the continent heats up, the ocean starts to warm a little and the sun reaches its zenith, suggesting a 16C second half is more likely than a 16C first half or whole month; the second being that those 3 times have all occurred in the last 7 years, reflecting climatic developments perhaps. The final being, as Willow says,  that models currently suggest something warmer in the wings, maybe starting tomorrow in the south and lasting.
So not fully written off yet, hopefully.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 



I think the odds are strongly against hitting 14.1 (1961-90 av) this year even with recent warming

This is the table of Junes since 1772 that are this cold (12.1C) by 15th and what the final CET ended up as. Only 2 14's in there !

UserPostedImage
Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Retron
16 June 2024 15:51:53


This is the table of Junes since 1772 that are this cold (12.1C) by 15th and what the final CET ended up as. Only 2 14's in there !

Originally Posted by: lanky 


Nice to see 1985, 1990 and of course 1995 on there - as they all had massive amounts of snow afterwards!

1985 > Feb 86, a subzero CET month and it turned Sheppey into a frozen wasteland. Endless snow showers blowing in on a keen easterly, fantastic!
1990 > Feb 91, "The wrong kind of snow" for BR, with -5C maxima widespread.
1995 > Dec 95, when the all-time UK cold record was equalled, and when snow lay on the marshes around here throughout January. The icicles at a nearby bungalow reached from the eaves to the ground, a solid thick column of ice.

'Course, 1987 and 1991 were followed by absolute dross winters, but we won't mention them. 😉

 
Leysdown, north Kent
Bertwhistle
16 June 2024 17:01:24
Useful data posted Lanky, thanks, and point taken about unlikeliness. But there were other cold starts to June, including 1989, which saw sudden and remarkable turnarounds (1989 was 12.7 to this point but much lower just a few days before). I think the location of the 3 CET stations might also help us to lift this CET up a bit with a slow-encroaching HP from the west, meaning the NE suffers cooler & less settled weather for longer. I was looking at the historic charts on the chart viewer for 1995 and I can see some interesting synoptics not vastly different from this year's at times, with some low 850s well into the month (sub-zero 9th, 13th for example in S. England) and a persistence of either LP or cold HP early on. In fact the HP that delivered the final heatwave didn't come from a particularly warm source. What would be brilliant would be to see the projections then, for what things would look like in the two week timeframe!
I reiterate I accept your comment about unlikeliness- but probability is a funny thing!
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
17 June 2024 05:10:08
I certainly wouldn’t rule out a 14c finish this month. It hasn’t taken much for the temperature to rise quickly in recent weeks.  Not the expected steady rise but a sudden change within 24 hours.  At least it has here.  We saw several days in May with low 20’s, following some cooler days. As Darren says, it’s changed effortlessly. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
ARTzeman
17 June 2024 10:27:37
IMANSF22               13.0c.           Nicks'1BATH175       12.8c
Metcheck                 12.57c               Anomaly              -1.57c
Netweather              13.03c               Anomaly              -1.07c
Peasedown St John  12.87c               Anomaly              -2.33c.     




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Bertwhistle
17 June 2024 14:12:44
Bit of a delay again. Hadobs still only showing 12.1 to 14th. 
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Quantum
19 June 2024 07:32:26

Does anyone have a record of when 30C was first hit over the last 10 or 20 years or so.

We could feasibly go the entire month without getting there, is that unusual these days?
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



To answer my own question. The most common time seems to be around now, or the last week of June.

Occasionally its in July (most recently 2021 where it happened on the 17th), and occasionally its May (most recently in 2012 where it happened on the 25th). One thing that seems noteworthy is that in late may or early June it seems fairly easy to see temperatures in the 26-28C range but getting the extra couple of degrees to 30C is a challenge.

I haven't found an August yet but I've only gone back to 2009 so far.
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
ARTzeman
19 June 2024 09:55:43
IMANSF22               13.0c            Nicks'1BATH75         13.0c
Metcheck                 12.75c               Anomaly             -1.39c
Netweather              13.26c               Anomaly             -0.85c
Peasedown St John  13.43c               Anomaly             -1.77c.




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
19 June 2024 13:18:23
Hadley

12.4 to the 18th

1.7c below the 61 to 90 average
1.5c below the 81 to 10 average
lanky
19 June 2024 13:31:44

To answer my own question. The most common time seems to be around now, or the last week of June.

Occasionally its in July (most recently 2021 where it happened on the 17th), and occasionally its May (most recently in 2012 where it happened on the 25th). One thing that seems noteworthy is that in late may or early June it seems fairly easy to see temperatures in the 26-28C range but getting the extra couple of degrees to 30C is a challenge.

I haven't found an August yet but I've only gone back to 2009 so far.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



I have this data for 1 site (Kew Gardens) which goes back 140 years up to 2022

I realise this is not exactly what you want as on some years the 30C date will have already been achieved somewhere else in the UK but Kew is generally amongst the highest temps on hot days so it won't be miles out for most years !

 
Martin
Richmond, Surrey
ARTzeman
20 June 2024 09:33:51
IMANSF22          13.2c            Nicks'1BATH75     13.2c
Metcheck            12.80c               Anomaly         -1.35c
Netweather         13.34c               Anomaly        -0.77c
Peasedown St John 13.16c           Anomaly        -2.04c.           




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
20 June 2024 12:57:36
Hadley

12.5 to the 19th

1.6c below the 61 to 90 average
1.5c below the 81 to 10 average
Quantum
21 June 2024 06:33:44

I have this data for 1 site (Kew Gardens) which goes back 140 years up to 2022

I realise this is not exactly what you want as on some years the 30C date will have already been achieved somewhere else in the UK but Kew is generally amongst the highest temps on hot days so it won't be miles out for most years !

 

Originally Posted by: lanky 



Am actually quite enjoying filling this in manually. Seeing the data appear as I do!

Some interesting points

- Last week of June seems to be far the most common time for the first 30C
- Lots of near misses in May and June. I see 27-29 alot and it does not guarantee the same hot spell will see 30C, in fact most of the time 30C is not breached.
- Since 2002 (23 years) 13 years have been in June. Of the remaining 10:
- 3 have been in May
- 6 have been in July
- 1 has been in August.
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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