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Saint Snow
15 July 2024 14:33:47

Well the 6Z GFS is towards the top of the pack but not unsupported.
And after tonight/tomorrow the ensemble mean is pretty dry, at last in my area.

Optimism level up a notch today.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



As it stands, it looks like any transition into summer could be a gradual and stealthy affair, rather than a fat UK high suddenly taking up residence, with the jet sneaking incrementally northwards to allow AH ridging over the UK to be more controlling from the south, and the troughs digging less southwards.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Jiries
15 July 2024 15:55:39

As is entirely typical, the MetO have continued to ninja-upgrade here - it's now looking very warm (and sultry) by the end of the week.

I'm hoping for an about-turn, but I doubt it'll happen - it seldom does in summer!

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/leys2.jpg 
UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Retron 


That would be first time to go above average for London and here going up to 25C on Friday that 2C above average and Wed-Thurs 23C on average so about time but still summer is damaged goods now so what we getting is crumbs while rest of Europe still properly summery settled warm to hot.
Retron
15 July 2024 17:09:18

That would be first time to go above average for London and here going up to 25C on Friday that 2C above average and Wed-Thurs 23C on average so about time but still summer is damaged goods now so what we getting is crumbs while rest of Europe still properly summery settled warm to hot.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


The 12z GFS continues to ramp up Friday's heat - it matches the 27 here that the MetO raw has, and with 850s of 14C across the far SE I wouldn't rule out a 29 or even 30... the 12z GFS has 28C for central London, for example.

Of course, things could still change, but it does have the feel of a burst of warmth which has gone under most people's radar so far...
Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
15 July 2024 17:12:57
12Z is much less settled after the weekend though. And has a bullseye low pressure over the north right in time for my MTB race on Sat 27, so probably spot on...
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Retron
15 July 2024 17:27:09

12Z is much less settled after the weekend though. And has a bullseye low pressure over the north right in time for my MTB race on Sat 27, so probably spot on...

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


See, I'm looking at it from the POV of someone who wants cool or even average weather and - preferably - some rain every few days. As such, the end of the working week looks hideous - very warm, dry, lots of sun and not much wind. You'll be looking at it from the other side, I guess, although I'm also sure you don't want hot weather if you're going racing on a bike!

As far as the 12z GFS goes, a weak trough then moves through over this weekend (the sort that just brings cloud rather than rain), and beyond that you're into the realms of FI anyway. GFS continues to have ridging close to or over the south of the UK, greatly weakening any rain for the southern third of the UK at least, and with lower 850s it would feel very pleasant in the sun... not oppressive and humid, as we'll be seeing this weekend.

I can imagine people being miserable "up north", and heat-hounds will of course be disappointed every day it isn't 25C or more, but for the majority - it looks like usable weather to me.
Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
15 July 2024 17:31:15
UKM going for 28C on Friday.

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Taylor1740
15 July 2024 17:39:31

UKM going for 28C on Friday.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Likely to be the hottest temperature of the month though looking at the longer term outlook. 28c as the highest temperature in July would be very poor.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
cultman1
15 July 2024 18:54:31
interesting. currently the Met Office is going for 25 here in Fulham. The upcoming weekend looks like potentially being another below par temperature wise for the London area. Hope this changes
Retron
16 July 2024 03:59:11
MetO raw now has 28C for Friday here. 30 gets ever more likely somewhere in the SE!
Leysdown, north Kent
Retron
16 July 2024 06:40:01
29 now, and Saturday's edging up too. I'm surprised there's not much more interest from the heat-hounds on here, TBH.
https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/leys3.jpg 
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Leysdown, north Kent
DEW
  • DEW
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16 July 2024 07:19:34
WX temp charts showing Europe north of the Alps as average in week 1, cooling a little in week 2 and definitely doing so for areas bordering the N Atlantic. [These are average temps across a week, and although SE England is the warmest bit of Britain, they suggest that Darren's dislike of heat, above, will only apply briefly]. Rain mostly in a band N Scotland - Scandinavia - W Russia; Spain and Turkey dry; bits and pieces elsewhere.

GFS Op - headline is for LPs to continue trundling across Britain from the Atlantic, drawing up bursts of warmth from the south as they approach and then leaving trailing W-lies in their wake. LP centres noted today England 1005mb, Sat 20th Faeroes 990mb dipping towards NE Scotland, Fri 26th Scotland 1000mb linked to Norway, Tue 30th Scotland 1000mb.Thu 1st Cornwall 1005mb.

ECM - similar  pattern though current LP more effective at drawing up warmth only for the subsequent one at the weekend to extens a trough much further S. Thus model also adds another LP, traversing S Scotland Tue 23rd 1005mb.

GEM - like GFS, though with more emphasis on a few warm days in the SE this week, gone by the weekend

GEFS - in the S, briefly warm this week, then close to norm or a little below from Sun 21st into August, very little rain. Further N, the warm spell is absent, and amounts of rain are greater the further N (esp NW) you go, though nowhere really wet. Reasonable ens agreement.
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Chichester 12m asl
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
16 July 2024 08:08:15
Looks like we're moving into a fairly average late July weather now, i.e. a few dry spells , longer and warmer further south and east, with regular rainy interruptions, longer and wetter further north and west. Southerly tracking lows look likely to give everybody some rain from time to time which will keep the gardeners happy!
In general I can see Retron complaining about the heat and dryness and Saint complaining about the cloud and rain! 

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
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Retron
16 July 2024 08:21:32
First 30s of July now appearing in the MetO raw output, which is in the "hot" category (6C or more above average). Odd that there's absolutely nothing in the trashy press about it - normally they're all over this sort of thing like a rash!
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpvjc1mn 
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpufvvhm 

Leysdown, north Kent
The Beast from the East
16 July 2024 08:36:24

First 30s of July now appearing in the MetO raw output, which is in the "hot" category (6C or more above average). Odd that there's absolutely nothing in the trashy press about it - normally they're all over this sort of thing like a rash!
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpvjc1mn 
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpufvvhm 

Originally Posted by: Retron 


I guess because its short lived, also I sense some exhaustion from the press after the Euros, election etc. 
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Saint Snow
16 July 2024 08:40:30
GFS 0z is back to horror-show territory today, after a number of previous GFS runs showed the southwards extent of the lows to be creeping ever-northwards, allowing the AH to retain more consistent influence over first the south of England, then more generally over more and more of England and Wales.

This morning, GFS is modelling a continuation of the lows repeatedly digging well south once again - FI ends with a low centred over Scilly.

ECM a similarly depressing and southern low-dominated picture. GEM not as bad as it keeps the lows a little further north, which allows the AH to ridging further northwards.

Hoping these are just usual variations. 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Taylor1740
16 July 2024 09:23:29

First 30s of July now appearing in the MetO raw output, which is in the "hot" category (6C or more above average). Odd that there's absolutely nothing in the trashy press about it - normally they're all over this sort of thing like a rash!
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpvjc1mn 
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpufvvhm 

Originally Posted by: Retron 


I'm not convinced we are going to see 30c this month even in the SE. Also in late July 29/30c is probably only like 5 or 6c above average for the SE and is something that would be expected almost every July so wouldn't be expecting the press to be all over it even though they of course like to hype up everything where they can!
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Retron
16 July 2024 09:31:29

I'm not convinced we are going to see 30c this month even in the SE. Also in late July 29/30c is probably only like 5 or 6c above average for the SE and is something that would be expected almost every July so wouldn't be expecting the press to be all over it even though they of course like to hype up everything where they can!

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


We'll scrape a 30, I'd wager. It's 7C above average if it happens here, 6C above for London, both of which qualifies as "hot" using the official MetO terminology.

Yes, it happens most Julies, but given it's been a cool first half of the month it's newsworthy (for once), hence my surprise at the lack of interest in the press... they would, as I say, normally be all over it (using their usual "hotter than someplace which is having a cold snap or in the southern hemisphere" headlines).

I guess a certain bedroom forecaster favoured by the Express hasn't spotted it yet, hence the trashy press haven't picked up on it yet! *evil grin*
Leysdown, north Kent
ballamar
16 July 2024 09:53:52
Bring on the heat for Friday - have an outdoor event couldn’t be better
Saint Snow
16 July 2024 10:53:13

Bring on the heat for Friday - have an outdoor event couldn’t be better

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



👍

It's one of those bloody annoying summers where any outdoor event is pure lottery - more so the further north you go

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
16 July 2024 10:53:39

Looks like we're moving into a fairly average late July weather now, i.e. a few dry spells , longer and warmer further south and east, with regular rainy interruptions, longer and wetter further north and west. Southerly tracking lows look likely to give everybody some rain from time to time which will keep the gardeners happy!
In general I can see Retron complaining about the heat and dryness and Saint complaining about the cloud and rain! 

Originally Posted by: GezM 


The complaints from Retron and Saint will probably reflect the difference in weather between north and south.  Maybe they should do a house swap!  I’m in the Midlands and average useable July weather will be just fine for me. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Saint Snow
16 July 2024 11:12:25

The complaints from Retron and Saint will probably reflect the difference in weather between north and south.  Maybe they should do a house swap!  I’m in the Midlands and average useable July weather will be just fine for me. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 




I'm only about 30 miles further north than you 😉

Looking at the June maps, we're both under the same temp and sunshine colour-shades (you are very slightly drier). Scotland, NI and Cumbria are having a truly abysmal summer.

I wasn't actually aware I'd been overly complaining!  😳  I've been posting about the models from a 'I want dry and settled weather in summer' perspective, and noting how unusual this pattern of a stubborn PV that keeps spawning (it's like a cell dividing!) lows over that NE Canada/Greenland area that track straight for the UK, skittling any ridging AH out of the way. Am I getting too defensive, here? 😁

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Crepuscular Ray
16 July 2024 12:38:48

29 now, and Saturday's edging up too. I'm surprised there's not much more interest from the heat-hounds on here, TBH.
https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/leys3.jpg 
UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Probably because it's a SE event and nothing out of the ordinary for you guys
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
picturesareme
16 July 2024 13:06:34
Met now have 27C for here on Friday, and we're on the coast. 
picturesareme
16 July 2024 13:17:40

Probably because it's a SE event and nothing out of the ordinary for you guys

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 


Like frost & snow in winter is for guys up north 😂
Retron
16 July 2024 13:44:31

Met now have 27C for here on Friday, and we're on the coast. 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Still 29 on the latest here (and the MetO forecast is for the beach, rather than 0.5 miles inland where I am) - the old SW'ly foehn effect of course. Saturday's gone up to 28 now, mind you...  🥵
Leysdown, north Kent

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