WX temps continue to show the mass of cold/freezing air over Russia making steady progress SE-wards. In week 1, temps for W Europe are a little above norm but look as if they might go a little below in week 2, including Britain. A freezing patch develops over the Alps. Very dry for Europe except the Mediterranean in week 1. Unlike yesterday the Atlantic remains quiet and Britain, along with coastal Europe, remains dry - the rain in the Med moves up into the Balkans and C Europe.
GFS Op - HP remains the dominant force over the UK for the next two weeks, but the centre is more mobile than previously. Sat 9th near the Baltic with LP close to NW Britain; passing over UK to reach W of Ireland Wed 13th and LP near Denmark giving NE-lies for SE England; centred over Britain again 1035 by Tue 19th.
ECM - like GFS Op but from Wed 13th the LP near Denmark persists longer and affects more of England as it moves to France Sat 16th
GEM - like GFS but HP remains closer to Britain so less influence from the fringe LPs on 9th and 13th
GEFS - slow decline in temps with firm ens agreement to Tue 12th; the mean continues to cool slowly to norm by Sat 16th but the divergence in ens members becomes ever wilder and by 21st everything from 10C below to 10C above norm. Chances of rain in some runs from Sat 16th, less common but heavier in S, more common but smaller amounts in N
I'm away for the next week or so, leaving very early tomorrow, so there may not be time for a review then. Later reviews will depend on suitable wifi connections and the timetable of where I'm staying.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl