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ballamar
04 November 2024 14:25:53
Not seen a uniform cooldown on the GEFS like the 6z in a long time. Time for it to change but could become more seasonal by mid Nov
Gandalf The White
04 November 2024 14:27:43

Not seen a uniform cooldown on the GEFS like the 6z in a long time. Time for it to change but could become more seasonal by mid Nov

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Yes, if the trend continues we might even get an air frost in the south before autumn is over….

Whoopee!
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Jiries
04 November 2024 20:27:46

Yes, if the trend continues we might even get an air frost in the south before autumn is over….

Whoopee!

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


At this same set-up under the HP we should had been looking at severe early frosts and sunny days by now.  This HP need to sod off asap.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
05 November 2024 08:19:44
WX temp charts slowly shifting; most of W Europe above norm and not much change for Britain and the near continent over the next two weeks. But the area of freezing weather over Russia is getting colder in the N and also approaching the Polish border while E Europe experiences a cool down in advance of this. Very dry for most of Europe in week 1 (storms in the Med moving east, Atlantic rain on the western fringes of Ireland). The dry area shrinks S-wards in week 2 - rain for N Scotland and ScandinaviaH.

GFS Op - HP continues to dominate, moving a little E-wards at the weekend allowing LP to approach the NW but HP returning to be centred over Britain for all of the following week i.e. until Fri 15th. It then moves to France and W/NW-lies set in, looking unsettled in the N but still HP-dominated in the S. Any N-lies no longer show up, despite press speculation.

ECM - similar to GFS but the LP near the NW is delayed to Sun 10th rather than 8th/9th.

GEM - like GFS though a suggestion at end of run Thu 14th that the HP may move NW-wards, not to the S

GEFS - Mean temp supported by ensembles at first steadily declining to norm by Thu 21st; ens agreement begins to break up  around Thu 14th more so in north than south. Chances of rain after Sun 17th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
The Dub Version
05 November 2024 13:20:48

Late month cool down showing it’s hand?
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=2&bw=1&geoid=49069 
This would chime with Exeters front loaded winter/ backloaded autumn/ mid loaded pre Christmas loadings. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Problem is, it never loads. Always full of bad sectors, and CRC errors, (cyclical regurgitated crap)
Best to look out the window this winter.
Berkshire
AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
05 November 2024 13:35:25

Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow / Creeps in this petty pace from day to day...
'''

Originally Posted by: DEW 


I think of it as Groundhog Day weather - the same thing over and over and over again, like the film of that name.

Looks as though it will continue for the next 10 days according to GEFS. 
Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
White Meadows
05 November 2024 20:48:27
Been checking over past cold drop years ‘La gota fría’ in Spain. 
Seems a major one occurred in September 1962, preceding the memorable freezing winter in Europe. 
I’d be interested to hear any thoughts on whether this may have a bearing on winter and how it might impact our shores, if any. 
+1
dagspot
05 November 2024 21:52:53
are there ever any true recurrent patterns? I am not convinced. Far too many variables that would need to align over centuries not popping up again within decades. What will be, will be. 
Neilston 600ft ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
06 November 2024 08:18:59
WX temps continue to show the mass of cold/freezing air over Russia making steady progress SE-wards. In week 1, temps for W Europe are a little above norm but look as if they might go a little below in week 2, including Britain. A freezing patch develops over the Alps. Very dry for  Europe except the Mediterranean in week 1. Unlike yesterday the Atlantic remains quiet and Britain, along with coastal Europe, remains dry - the rain in the Med moves up into the Balkans and C Europe.

GFS Op - HP remains the dominant force over the UK for the next two weeks, but the centre is more mobile than previously. Sat 9th near the Baltic with LP close to NW Britain; passing over UK to reach W of Ireland Wed 13th and LP near Denmark giving NE-lies for SE England; centred over Britain again 1035 by Tue 19th.

ECM - like GFS Op but from Wed 13th the LP near Denmark persists longer and affects more of England as it moves to France Sat 16th

GEM - like GFS but HP remains closer to Britain so less influence from the fringe LPs on 9th and 13th

GEFS - slow decline in temps with firm ens agreement to Tue 12th; the mean continues to cool slowly to norm by Sat 16th but the divergence in ens members becomes ever wilder and by 21st everything from 10C below to 10C above norm. Chances of rain in some runs from Sat 16th, less common but heavier in S, more common but smaller amounts in N

I'm away for the next week or so, leaving very early tomorrow, so there may not be time for a review then. Later reviews will depend on suitable wifi connections and the timetable of where I'm staying.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+9
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
07 November 2024 06:51:19
WX temps: after a week 1 in which most of Europe is still above norm, colder weather continues its march across Europe from the NE, Scandinavia and the Alps shown as freezing by week 2  and everywhere cooler. Rain in the far N and far S of Europe in week 1, the gap slowly filling in in week 2 though Britain and Spain remain largely dry.

GFS Op - HP continues to dominate Britain, with LP nibbling at the edges (the NW this weekend, the SE next weekend. On Thu 21st LP moves from Iceland to Scandinavia and as the HP retreats W-wards, cold N-lies appear down the N Sea (last night's 18z showed this LP over E Scotland with a full-on N-ly storm for Britain)

ECM - after the 11th the LP does more than nibble at the SE; a shallow area of LP develops over S England and France through to Sat 16th (the 0z hasn't downloaded for the weekend to follow but the preceding 12z fancies N-lies for Britain)

GEM - HP maintains its dominance as for GFS Op but the N-ly plunge starts Fri 15th and is more directly aimed at Britain

GEFS - current mild temps declining to norm by Mon 11th with good ens agreement (milder again for a couple of days in Scotland 13th/14th); mean staying at norm as ens members spread out though spread is less than shown yesterday. Small amounts of rain randomly occurring in some runs from the 11th (later in SW), again varying from yesterday in its earlier arrival. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+6
Russwirral
07 November 2024 10:57:38
Fairly consistent signal for the end of the month now for a cold spell developing....

The first chase of he year begins

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
+2
Jiries
07 November 2024 16:34:26

Fairly consistent signal for the end of the month now for a cold spell developing....

The first chase of he year begins

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Priority chase is to find a pattern to remove this nasty HP out as it outstayed it welcome.  
doctormog
07 November 2024 16:39:59

Fairly consistent signal for the end of the month now for a cold spell developing....

The first chase of he year begins

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


I’m not sure I would go as far as “cold spell” but a cool down to average or below with airflow from a northerly quarter seems favoured for a time from mid-month. This is shown again on the 12z GFS op run.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Ally Pally Snowman
07 November 2024 17:29:43
Definitely an eyebrow raiser at the end of the GFS 12z.  
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=12&time=384&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=12#mapref 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Heavy Weather 2013
07 November 2024 18:13:15
Oh 12z is a lovely run - reminds me of the lead up to 2010.
There has been a trend over recent runs to bring a northerly in.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
+1
Taylor1740
07 November 2024 18:26:54

Fairly consistent signal for the end of the month now for a cold spell developing....

The first chase of he year begins

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Yes it's becoming a consistent signal, however I expect it will either get moderated and flattened out nearer the time, or even if it did come off as modelled then it will probably just be cold drizzle and 5c temps at best.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
+1
doctormog
07 November 2024 18:33:46

Yes it's becoming a consistent signal, however I expect it will either get moderated and flattened out nearer the time, or even if it did come off as modelled then it will probably just be cold drizzle and 5c temps at best.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


So, you won’t mind when people quote this when the time comes then? 😝

You could very well be correct but it’s far too early to say that it is anything other than a trend. It could be a blizzard when the time comes, or slightly cool or knowing our luck still anticyclonic conditions. Having said that, the recurrence of this pattern for the second half of the month is definitely worth noting. 

The trend is becoming a bit clearer on the ensemble data too: 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.25 

This is for my locations, other locations are obviously available!

UserPostedImage
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Brian Gaze
07 November 2024 18:44:49
The ensemble mean is surprisingly consistent at t+10 days. A northerly incursion of sorts looks quite likely and I'd not be at all surprised to see the first snow of the season in northern Britain.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
07 November 2024 18:53:29
Looks like something is stirring. At this time of the year I'd expect the risk of wintry conditions to be low in the south, but there could be a fair amount of interest in the north, particularly over high ground.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Matty H
07 November 2024 20:37:32

Oh 12z is a lovely run - reminds me of the lead up to 2010.
There has been a trend over recent runs to bring a northerly in.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


I’d be happy enough with this. Won’t be at all cold down here, but would be sunnier. This current high is amazing, but it’s a bit more murky than I’d like 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
+1
White Meadows
07 November 2024 21:55:41

Oh 12z is a lovely run - reminds me of the lead up to 2010.
There has been a trend over recent runs to bring a northerly in.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Took the words out of my mouth.
Very similar to the end of November 2010. I remember studying every frame of every run, lapping up every moment as I couldn’t believe my eyes.
By the last weekend in November this forum went into complete meltdown. Site crashes were commonplace that year!
Of course, it won’t pan out like that this time. 2010 was a one in 100 year event, probably more like one in 150 yrs by now. 
Gandalf The White
07 November 2024 22:40:54

Took the words out of my mouth.
Very similar to the end of November 2010. I remember studying every frame of every run, lapping up every moment as I couldn’t believe my eyes.
By the last weekend in November this forum went into complete meltdown. Site crashes were commonplace that year!
Of course, it won’t pan out like that this time. 2010 was a one in 100 year event, probably more like one in 150 yrs by now. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


IIRC that cold period was triggered by a SSW and was well signalled ahead of the event.  I’ve been looking at the 10hPa wind forecast charts and they don’t show anything particularly unusual at the moment.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Heavy Weather 2013
08 November 2024 07:21:24
0z is not a great run, but it swings violently through the run suggest modelling is trying to find the right solution.
Interestingly the 850s go below average from the 11 November. Now keep me honest here, that feels like significant shift compared to even a few days ago. The 850s stay below average from the 11th for the entire run with some good clustering.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Ally Pally Snowman
08 November 2024 07:32:23
ECM 0z has a potent northerly at the end of its run. Can we actually gets some Greenland blocking , models are normally terrible at accuracy in that region though.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
08 November 2024 09:18:24
WX charts show a potent advance of cold/freezing weather from NE Russia into C & E Europe over the next two weeks, but not yet reaching France and Britain which remain  a little above norm. (This model doesn't appear to be picking up the N-;les shown in other models). Europe remaining fairly dry over the next two weeks; some rain for the Med in week 1, and for Britain and Turkey in week 2.

GFS Op - Current HP slipping a little E-wards with troughs for NW Britain at the weekend but HP returning from the SW early next week 1040mb and persisting though weaker to Sun 17th. Then LP from the north brings in a brief N'ly but 'pulls its punches' as it doesn't get close and winds go back to NW-ly and then W-ly by Tue 20th, before a long N-S trough develops to the W if Ireland with S-ly gales for all from Fri 22nd.

ECM - Like GFS - the LP from the north deepens significantly more over Scandinavia by Mon 18th but the wind field of the strong N-lies in this case mainly affects the N Sea and its coasts

GEM = more like GFS than ECM - something from the N by Mon 18th but not strong or penetrating

GEFS - mean temp back to norm by Tue 12th and staying a little below norm throughout. Not much agreement between ens members after the 12th, a range of +/- 5C from norm applies for most of the time and at the end the op run is wildly mild (13 C above) and the control is pessimistic (6C below). Rain appearing in many runs at random intervals after Tue 13th, perhaps a slight emphasis on this occurring in the S


Apologies for late review - struggling with network errors where I'm staying
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3

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