Good morning. A new week but will the weather be any different as we continue the run up to Christmas 2013. Here is my visualization of the output from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday December 9th 2013.
All models continue to show a period of benign weather for most areas of the UK away from the NW where it will be cloudy and windy but mild with rain at times through the coming week. Towards England and Wales the weather remains more settled and with a SW wind backing towards the SE for a day or two midweek it will become less mild for a time with a greater risk of mist, fog and a touch of overnight frost slow to clear for several days. However, by the end of the week and certainly through the weekend SW winds will bring milder air back across all areas and as winds increase generally the risk of some rain increases as weak fronts are shown to cross the UK by some output delivering occasional rain for some, even in the South.
GFS shows this well next weekend with one such band of rain crossing early in the weekend and another on Monday with the general trend to change the orientation of the wind flow to more of a West or NW directon as High pressure builds from the SW this time. Eventually this is shown to cover the UK with a marked drop in temperature and delivering much colder nights with widespread frost and fog problems but some crisp winter days with plenty of sunshine. The customary collapse of the High SE is shown right at the end of the run with milder SW winds slowly returning.
UKMO shows a weak front crossing East at the end of the week with a little rain for a time before the pattern resets somewhat though there would be more wind and troughs look like having a greater impact on many areas as we move towards next week in a mild SW flow.
GEM gradually shows things becoming much windier next week with the North in particular shown to experience gales and heavy rain at times as small depressions zip NE. Rain will reach the South too at times where it will stay mild but windy here too.
NAVGEM too recedes High pressure a little right at the end of the run but the pattern remains the same with High pressure to the SE and Low to the NW with a mild SW flow carrying troughs NE across the North and bringing these areas rain at times and there are hints that this may reach the South too with time.
ECM shows signals today of a much more mobile pattern eventually showing up later next week. Before we get there though there are many days of benign and quiet weather with mild SW winds just bringing the occasional weak trough East across the South next weekend while the NW sees more in the way of wind and rain throughout. Low pressure then looks like digging in closer to the WNW of the UK with troughs making inroads to more areas, but it should stay reasonably mild.
The GFS Ensembles are a little better this morning with the trend at least the right way for more average levels of temperatures, both aloft and at the surface to show up. It may come at a price of wind and rain at times but never much in the SE.
The Jet Stream continues to orientate itself NE across the Atlantic to the NW of Britain for some considerable time to come. The only change of note is likely to be a shift towards a more West to East orientation across the Atlantic and the UK at least for a time in Week 2 but there is no major signs of a major shift that would deliver anything cold to the UK as of today's output.
In Summary then there remains little to offer in the way of colder weather for the UK as a whole from this morning's output. With pressure high to the SE and the South later, West or SW winds are likely to predominate throughout. Through this week it looks like there may be a few days of chillier air across the South with fog and frost possibilities but these look like being swept away by the weekend by an increasing SW breeze and a little rain at the weekend. The trend thereafter appears to be a slow progression to more changeable weather with rain at times in a fresh to strong SW flow later next week.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset