Good evening. Here is tonight's report on the midday outputs from the NWP for today Saturday February 15th 2014 and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show yesterday's storm now well away to the NE with a weak ridge crossing the UK tomorrow giving a dry night and day tomorrow with some welcome sunshine and light winds. Later tomorrow the weather deteriorates again as cloud and rain attached to a weaker Low pressure than of late spreads in from the West to give a cloudy and damp day in the West on Monday before the weather improves again on Tuesday and much of Wednesday as a weak ridge crosses from the West.

GFS then shows a more vigorous Low pressure system crossing Southern Britain soon after midweek with wind and rain for all followed by a changeable remainder of the run with rain at times in winds from a mostly SW direction giving generally milder conditions later.

UKMO looks menacing at the end of it's output tonight with a small but vigorous Low crossing Northern Britain with gales and heavy rain sweeping East across Britain with temperatures close to average before colder and showery weather follows as the Low pressure moves out into the North Sea.

GEM shows a very windy and sometimes very wet period as winds between South and West carry spells of rain and showers across all areas through the latter period of the run.

NAVGEM shows a strong Westerly flow across the UK with rain at times in temperatures close to average overall.

ECM tonight is also a little disturbing as after a brief respite next week we appear to be falling down the path of a return to deeply unsettled, windy and wet weather across all areas before the end of next weekend.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Charts show little change from this morning's with Low pressure in control of the UK weather with SW winds and spells of rain and showers, probably heaviest towards the West of the UK in temperatures largely close to average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The GFS Ensembles tonight show an unsettled period maintained throughout tonight's output. The temperatures will remain close to average for many but it could become rather mild in the South for a day or two while throughout there will be rain at times almost everywhere.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

The Jet Stream Forecast indicates the flow will remain fairly consistent within it's current location while strengthening somewhat again after a lull next week.

In Summary there appears to be growing trends shown between the outputs of the UK slipping back into a very unsettled and windy period with rain and strong winds featuring heavily again after a brief period of less unsettled conditions. With a fairly strong jet flow re-emerging again later next week the catalyst is their for some powerful depressions to affect the UK once more with the North and West and probably including the SW too for some more disruptive rainfall and severe gales.

OMG.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-20-1-192.png?12

This would do me

Ah ruddy ell more sodding wind and rain

Thank you Martin

Would a nuclear airburst in mid atlantic knock the buggers off course to Scotland at least (Ba the radiation sickness etc)

Unfortunately GFS is offering us the driest option out of the operational runs tonight, followed by GEM, then ECM, and finally UKMO which is taken to be the wettest scenario based on how it manages to bring two storms through the UK Thu-Fri rather than just one, while also supressing the Azores High more than the other models.

As it is, the models show little agreement on how the system on Thursday behaves - whether it develops a secondary low, if so how much, when exactly, and where the energy goes afterwards. It's important, as there's the potential for a substantial amount of rainfall if it unfolds like GFS or UKMO; the former brings 20-30mm across many parts as the secondary low wraps the frontal system around it.

ECM produces a very wet setup for days 7-10, and GEM isn't much better except possibly for the far south due to notable higher pressure across Europe... it's dubious though, as that model does tend to get carried away which such things just like GFS (usually felt more in summer when it leads to heatwave charts fading to westerly dross).

So... make the most of the drier interludes this week. If we get lucky, we could escape with the flooded regions seeing less than 20mm for the 7-day period. If not, we might see closer to 30mm or so.

Of course, that may seem relatively low compared to recent times, but actually it's close to half the monthly average - so about twice as much rain as you'd normally expect across 7 days of February.

Pretty much given up any hope of seeing snow this winter now.

For the sake of communities flooded, I hope the theme for drier weather continues.

Looking  0h op this morning its striking how unsettled the Atlantic remains.I count in the next two weeks six separate rain events

Mon 17th,Thu/Fri 20/21st,Sun 23rd,Wed 26th,Fri 28th,Sat>sun 1st/2nd.

Its easy to write this off on ther basis that GFS is too progressive where zonality is concerned but thats what we are stuck in!Also the ENS show a good proportion of LP,s s that remain  southerly tracking.Difficult to get idea of how heavy the rain will be but it keeps the wet theme going which hardly helps reduce the water table.

Gfs if anyhing is slightly on the cold side with around 25% of ENS cold AT 192 and 240H.

no respite apparent in the current output over the next 10 days although the systems do look like tracking on a more northerly latitude than the past couple weeks. does that mean less rainfall for the soggy south ?  theoretically yes, and a retention of euro heights will assist. however, what we have seen is a strong mobility which has pushed the intense rainfall through fairly quickly. the further we are from the depresion centre, we do open ourselves up to wave developments and, should the euro heights establish in a certain way, stalling fronts aswell. of course, those same euro heights could edge that bit closer to the uk and bring us an early spring ??  (anyone holding their breath on that one is unlikely to be around to see spring when it does eventually arrive!)

A cold unsettled start to March looks on the cards, not a great outlook if you are looking for some settled springlike weather

Good morning. The start of a new week and is it the start of better weather. Here is this morning' report on the midnight releases of the NWP for today Sunday February 16th 2014.

All models show a quieter spell of weather this week though still unsettled weather to be had by all with occasional rain but rather much less in the way of very strong winds. Low pressure areas are continuing to feature in the coming week's weather for all areas but they are shown to be either much weaker or further North than those of late restricting and changing the location for the heaviest rain and strong winds more towards the NW with some longer drier spells between the rain bands.

GFS then show next weekend as breezy and showery ahead of a drier Sunday under a weak and transient ridge sliding East later. Then through Week 2 the trend shown is for further Low pressure moving East across or to the North of the UK bringing further rain and strong winds at times but also some colder and brighter spells with sunshine and showers more likely with a wintry flavour to some of the showers over the hills later.

UKMO ends it's run opening next weekends weather with a windy and showery day on Saturday following more prolonged rainfall on Friday. It will be windy for many with temperatures near to average though it looks like it could be briefly rather chilly under the showery conditions of Saturday with snow on Northern hills within the showers.

GEM shows an unsettled start to next weekend with some rain before a milder and increasingly strong SW flow under deep Low pressure over the Atlantic spreads wind and rain quickly NE across all areas with more following off and on through the first half of the week after next.

NAVGEM also shows SW winds the main ingredient to the weather next weekend and beyond, strengthening somewhat. So this means a showery weekend will give way to some spells of more persistent rain at times in Week 2.

ECM shows a chilly start to next weekend under a cool NW flow with scattered showers. This is followed by a dry and brighter 48 hour period as a ridge crosses over from the West in lighter winds and sunshine by day. Through Week 2 the trend is for Low pressure in the Atlantic to dig down across the Atlantic and bathing the UK in Southerly winds and periods of rain, quite copious at times in the West and accompanied by a return to milder air.

The ECM Mean Charts shows that the likelihood of the UK being influenced by Low pressure out to the West and NW is high with SW carrying mild and sometimes wet weather across the UK, heaviest towards the west with any dry weather more likely towards the far east and SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The GFS Ensembles today show a very average set temperature wise with fairly wet weather for most after a couple of drier days in the SE early in the period indicative of further Low pressure dominated weather off the Atlantic.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

The Jet Stream shows a weaker flow this week with slower tracking weather systems as a result. A sine wave pattern results in the flow with periods of good and bad weather through this week while Week 2 indicates a trend for the flow to strengthen again and become responsible for more coherent Low pressure areas to affect the UK again though hopefully not to the extent of recently.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=3&carte=0

In Summary today the weather remains generally unsettled with rain at times for all areas over the coming two weeks. It is important to note that in the context of recent standards this week's weather will be much better overall. especially in the South with less new disruption from both wind and rain as a result. In the latter end of the period the trend is shown for deep Low pressure areas to offer more in the way of coherent rainfall again with gales and severe gales in exposure and we will have to see how this trend develops over coming output to see whether that could take us back into worrying territory again. The one thing that isn't shown this morning is any prospect of particularly cold conditions and therefore not too much in the way of frost, ice and snow away from the Scottish hills.

Must admit I am starting to get about worroed about my prediction that things would start improving for the later part of the month - Though the ECM doesn't look too bad I don't think?

Indeed. On friday's event the heaviest rain was over the channel and northern france

GFS 06z peps up tomorrows rainfall a bit, then drier until thursday

Yes, it has a couple of days that gives us a dry interlude but the LP's start to gather again

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014021600/ECH1-240.GIF?16-12

given where we've been for the past few weeks gavin, thats a safe prediction!!  its all relative i guess. this is our second consec dry day in the se so thats already better than we've been used to.

if the groundwater levels are as high as the experts say, then i doubt we'll see those folk in the floodrisk areas able to relax anytime soon.

Rain or shine we are going back in tomorrow I've gone past caring what the weather will do; if this is the future of the UK

weather, just going to have to accept it and adapt

Keep smiling through

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021606/gfsnh-0-276.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021606/gfsnh-0-300.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021606/gfsnh-0-324.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021606/gfsnh-0-348.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021606/gfsnh-0-372.png?6

An unsettled end to Feb and dare I say a cold and wintry ( North) in places start to March

UKMO looking very wet, GFS a bit less so for the south at least

Very quiet in here - the quietest I have ever seen it during any winter.

The output probably explains why. Some rain, relatively mild, breezy at times and with short dry interludes.

No big freeze in sight.

No 'extreme' weather on the cards too.

Regular bands of mostly light or moderate rain which may add to the flood concerns but in terms of actual weather, very much a benign affair.

In other words, it is very much a big zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz fest.

Mid Feb and I am already going to stop my daily model watching for this campaign.

Reason: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

I traditionally ease up during the spring and given the birds are chirping each morning, the daffs are in flower, the insects are busy at work and the days are lengthening, I think the season without an air frost or a single flake of snow, commonly a.k.a autumn, is fast coming to an end with spring now knocking at our doorsteps.

Come off it. It's far too early for that and it can still snow well into January February March at sea level at altitude on a mountain in Scotland   In Norway.

The funny thing is editing the above removed the strikethroughs but you get the gist.

My thoughts almost exactly. Not even a wacky cold easterly in the GEFS to look at. It's been a lovely day here with butterflies observed in the garden and the spring flowers emerging. Bugger this extended autumn, time to move on.

Indeed Rob.

A thumbs up to GFS in reference to the lack of 'eye-candy'. Gone are those old days of silly FI wet-yourself charts. The model has improved over the years and is more tuned to the reality.

Neil:  I too have experienced the strike-through probs when editing but in challenging your post, I accept that snow can and in all probability, will fall during March. My post is in reference to proper snow/winter and slightly geared to an IMBY slant. I do think it is fair to say that WIO for the vast majority of the lowland S. Yes, yes, yes... we can get snow in March but with the sun, longer days, warming ground, blah, blah, blah, it is pretty wet, short-lived and if anything, quite annoying.

Remember, the snow we got in March 2013 was pretty rare and will not happen very often. The N and the hills, of course, can consider snow during March a fairly regular event and so that is good for those who are looking for that. I, for one, am now looking forward to spring as good synoptics will not bring the real deal for most in the far S once we get into March and given the ENS show a mild/unsettled theme, I am hanging my boots up early.

PS: I'll probably be back in mid March - as sods law will bring winter synoptice in spring . I will then be back to show my support for those in the N

only a couple of months to wait mike until the new gfs is due to go live. that was the theory but the lack of any parallel output makes me wonder if its been delayed.

and lets be serious - the model is not the best. infact its 3rd/4th best. i'll grant you its the best post day 10 that we get to see !!!!

Good evening. Here is the report of the 12 noon outputs from NWP for today Sunday February 16th 2014 taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show a slowly filling Low moving in from the West tonight and tomorrow bringing rain across Western and Central areas through the night and lasting for much of tomorrow. The far East will stay dry but become cloudier later. By Tuesday the rain area weakens and decays as it crosses East on Tuesday with a slack Westerly shown with a lot of cloud and just a few showers through most of Tuesday and Wednesday. Later in the week the models do vary with a stronger SW flow looking likely as Low pressure takes control of the UK weather up to the NW.

GFS then shows fronts crossing East late in the week with rain followed by showers which then leads on to another unsettled second half to it's operational output tonight with spells of rain and showers with some drier and brighter periods too at times, these chiefly in the SE. Temperatures will be generally close to average but perhaps a little on the mild side in the South at times while conversely the North could see temporarily chilly conditions at times.

UKMO shows next weekend shows a window of drier weather on Saturday following the previous days of wind and rain. By Sunday it looks like it would become wet and windy for many again, especially towards the North and West.

GEM has the UK bathed in fresh to strong SW winds with rain at times and temperatures perhaps on the mild side in the SE. Late in the run Low pressure crosses the heart of the UK at times with appreciable amounts of rain for many as the winds remain strong and from a Westerly point.

NAVGEM has a mild SW flow late in it's run with Low pressure to the NW with relatively mild weather with bands of rain crossing NE in the flow at times.

ECM is unsettled as well through next weekend and the start of the new week. However the weekend might not be that bad as a weak ridge dampens down this week's rain to give a dry and brighter spell lasting longest over the SE before all areas gradually become wet and windy again thereafter.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts continue to indicate a strong trend for Low pressure to be close to NW Britain in 9 and 10 Days time with the resultant mild SW winds and often wet weather well established over the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The GFS Ensembles show a fairly average spell of weather with regard to temperatures and it does also look that another rather wet period will be on the cards following the quieter spell of the middle of this week.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

The Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow much weaker for the next week or so blowing steadily across the Atlantic in a somewhat undulating pattern before a marked strengthening of the flow is shown through Week 2 again close to Southern Britain.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=3&carte=0

In Summary the weather pattern remains an unsettled one. While not the severe pattern we have seen of late there is still plenty of scope for more than enough rain in the areas that don't need it to give rise to further flooding issues and very little scope for any sustained dry and fine weather lasting for any length of time. Temperatures will remain pleasant enough for this time of February with very limited amounts of fog, frost, ice or snow.

This winter seems to have been the 'in between' winter in terms of the Azores High; it's been more present than in, say, December 2010, but on the other hand, it's rarely been able to extend in our direction very much.

Next weekend could see one of those rare extensions reaching our shores, although it will only be very feeble if UKMO/JMA verify, and even those with a stronger ridge blast it away by day 7.

Beyond that, the theme is one of an Atlantic trough digging well south and coming up against a Euro Block that's too far east to save us from the rain - in fact it just makes things worse by slowing and/or stalling frontal systems and opening up the possibility of frontal waves affecting us... and as the lower latitudes warm up, the available moisture will only increase 

What alarms me is that, although there's been a lot of rain events across The South lately, not one of them has been anywhere near the high-end in terms of single-event totals; my highest is 27.7mm last Friday, whereas last December I recorded 67mm in 24 hours, with similar totals quite widely in the area.

That came from a vast trough meeting higher heights across Europe. Just like what the models are firming up on for days 7-10.