The models seem to be drifting together, with the combined theme being one of a trough between the UK and the Azores with blocking to the north of that.
Due to the trough positioning, there is a net southerly/near southerly flow across much of NW Europe, bringing warmth up towards the UK.
Meanwhile, the blocking high across Greenland drives Arctic air southward, towards the UK...
There is serious scope for the UK to be simultaneously affected by both airmasses, which the ECM 12z op run shows very nicely - in fact it's remarkably consistent with previous runs in that respect. GFS is showing similar things now... in fact, GFS has shifted towards ECM far more than ECM has come the other way.
With light winds and a continental drift originating somewhere in Africa, the ECM day 10 chart could deliver 20*C or more in parts of the south, provided there was enough dry air in the circulation to prevent excessive cloud build-up, or at least a high enough cap in the atmosphere to allow convection to stand tall rather than spread out.
At the same time, NE Scotland could see a few snow showers, though perhaps not to low levels given the weakness of the flow.
This sure is fascinating stuff - I will have to fight to not let it distract me from my revision too much!
Unfortunately, the natural progression from the above situation is towards troughing closer to the UK or over us. Retrogression of the mean trough is possible, but we would be getting very lucky indeed if we saw that!
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser