You can take it seriously, just not too seriously. It does appear it will be cold, as I have said earlier, the devil is in the detail. Lets just get his pattern changed to something more seasonal and worry about the specifics a couple of days beforehand.

Maybe the reason why the METO forecast hasn't changed. The cold air may retreat from the south very soon.

This country always finds a way to avoid snow

Based on tweets from professional forecasters I would say the reason it hasn't changed yet is because of the uncertainty, not because mild options are the favourite (they're not).

I don't see what people are worried about with the Azores low. It is the Azores low that is allowing the block to stay up in the first place. The Azores low can't scupper a cold spell, the only thing that can is the block collapsing or retreating way out west.

And the control run goes blizzard crazy in la la land  

LOL!  Some of us have gone all winter without an airfrost.  Or even a day with below average maximas.  Now it's looking cold and frosty from early next week for at least 10 days - with a risk of snow just about anywhere.  The best winter charts in years.   And some are bemoaning the fact it might turn a bit milder again in 2 week's time and the rest the fact that it might not be be incredibly exceptionally cold.

Well, I guess if we don't see -15c in London by Wednesday then winter is over .....

.... and the long ones out too now: http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016010706/graphe3_1000_301_146___.gif

COLDEST OF THE WINTER SO FAR.

That's a hell of a precip spike too!

 A decent cluster keep it at -7C or so right out to the end.

Comfortably the coldest so far. The train may have left the station...

My ''look west'' post yesterday appears to be coming to fruition and this low looks to be potent whether it falls as rain or snow so we could have more flooding problems next week - maybe for different areas - the Somerset levels come to mind.

I know I will be against the trend of thought here but the GFS 06z to my eyes does not show an elongated period of cold and if anything hints at a flattening of the pattern with a succession of northerly lows weakening the greenie high - this would tie in with the Meto's suggestion of a brief colder incursion. However that is all F.I. and I for one look forward to a pattern change and relief from this dross no matter how brief.

completely agree - that Azores low is absolutley key to anything happening.  It stops the GH disappearing to lower latitudes, whilst also drawing down the cold air in the correct direction.. otherwise you can wave goodbye to the cold air as it merrily drifts over to Germany and we're left with nothing but a few coastal wintry showers over wales.

And no early mild options this time - that 'risk period' seems to be less risky now.

And to think we were getting stressed about it.

What I find very interesting is the growing signal for a more prolonged cold spell here.  Lot's of re-loads from the north, with brief Easterlies in the mix.

The METO forecast hasn't changed for a few days, the Azores Low affair is a separate issue - to my mind the forecast still relates to toppling - not ending in a a complicated set-up involving lows from the SW.

Not sure where you get that from ?? Being some 30 miles from you I avidly watch all the runs daily and I cannot remember seeing GFS saying snow this week .

Haven't yet worked out how to paste a screenshot here, but the GEFS 6z ensembles are beautiful. Mean is now -6/7 for a good 4 days 

These look very good for cold but I've not stepped through the Ps yet.

you cant paste screenshots.  unless you post it on an image hosting site - such as Imgur.  Other copy and paste elements ie from a GFS picture which is already hosted by a webpage else where will copy and paste.

So if you are trying to copy and paste the ensmbles - then right click and copy image - or copy the link.  Then paste that into a reply - note: do not use quick reply as the paste funcationality doesnt work there. you have to click at the top or bottom of the forum page on post a reply to allow that to work.  If you see the Smileys on the left - then you can paste.

destination Greece

Cheers! Seems to be an unwritten rule that Brian pastes the ensembles first anyway 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/21_210_850tmp.png?cb=27

850 Mean not looking too shabby at T210