As I said yesterday some people are speculating that it will have an impact on the NH circulation for years. There's no doubt in my mind that something changed after 1987 and there's no reason to think it couldn't happen again.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I find that incredible.

Originally Posted by: polarwind 

But not a new idea, eh? I'm glad you can now see the possibilities.

*Yes, if spring is put back a month, that will increase albedo with the obvious consequences on temperature and circulation - as discussed and often dismissed by many, for umpteen years in the Climate Forum.

Originally Posted by: polarwind 

I can still remember being sent hom early from school on the morning of 1st March 1995 following heavy snowfall here the previous night. Should the current output verify, I would submit that there is a chance of history repeating itself next Thursday.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Maybe they are seeing output that means extreme warnings are still not justified. Hard to tell from the view we see but the UKMO 168 chart looks like it could be headed for a relatively rapid breakdown. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Are you still at school?

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

Maybe they are seeing output that means extreme warnings are still not justified. Hard to tell from the view we see but the UKMO 168 chart looks like it could be headed for a relatively rapid breakdown. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Are you still at school?

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

I share your concern though the artic has nothing whatsoever to with SSW or the fact that it’s weather that’s happened many times berfore.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

This is not the place for discussion of the MET and their warnings, but I would say this - we all know that snow predictions fro next week are almost impossible. It is highly likely, if not certain, that snow will be falling, probably widely in the East with the potential to spread further west with troughs etc. Local features will pop up. But it is unreasonable to expect warnings for this at this time scale. Once we are with 48-72 hours I think warnings will be released, but at the moment you would have to ask - what should you warn about? As an example - in Wilts what would a warning look like? You can be pretty confident that it will be very cold by Monday and Tuesday, but you really can't say that it will snow, or how much, or that it will be disruptive.

As so often said - get the cold in and the snow will (may) follow. I do suspect some of us will be disappointed next week. Getting significant, countrywide snow is very very hard to do. What has been impressive is the consistency of the modelling. Is this the influence of the SSW over-riding the more normal patterns with a very strong signal? Perhaps.

Enjoy it folks, but try not to be upset that the MET is (rightly) taking its time before putting warnings out. Don't forget there are many (including on here) who will decry them warning of 1-2 cm of snow etc

Originally Posted by: turbotubbs 

I agree to a point, but, the way the temperature in the Arctic Basin, is much above average for this time of year, much because of the SSW, suggests that the Arctic is radiating heat to space at a rate above the average, possibly much above the average, of what we've seen for the last few decades. 

If SSW's are found to be the result of a drop in the sun's activity (an MM etc) then, the extraordinary synoptics presently seen, should be expected to be seen more often, with consequences that appear to be momentous. 

Originally Posted by: polarwind 

Do you mean in an even milder way or an unknown change? Only it has generally been milder since 1987.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Maybe they are seeing output that means extreme warnings are still not justified. Hard to tell from the view we see but the UKMO 168 chart looks like it could be headed for a relatively rapid breakdown. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I agree to a point, but, the way the temperature in the Arctic Basin, is much above average for this time of year, much because of the SSW, suggests that the Arctic is radiating heat to space at a rate above the average, possibly much above the average, of what we've seen for the last few decades. 

If SSW's are found to be the result of a drop in the sun's activity (an MM etc) then, the extraordinary synoptics presently seen, should be expected to be seen more often, with consequences that appear to be momentous. 

Originally Posted by: polarwind 

As others have said, if you were to draw the perfect winter snowstorm charts, it would very much like something the models are producing. It could be we will never see the likes of these charts for a long time or ever again, who snows.

On another angle, we go into a period of very high tides next week peaking between Friday 2nd to Monday 5th March and with low pressure progged to be close by will need caution for those around the coast.

There could be a lot going on!

Originally Posted by: Phil G 

Are you still at school?

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

The SSW has turned the UK into the new Newfoundland and Newfoundland into the UK. Just shows what happens at our latitude when normal synoptics go into reverse - if the earth spun the other way round, Western Europe would be as Canada weatherwise and east Canadians would be moaning about their relentlessly mild and damp winters :-)

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

As I said yesterday some people are speculating that it will have an impact on the NH circulation for years. There's no doubt in my mind that something changed after 1987 and there's no reason to think it couldn't happen again.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze