I don't know if there has been any comment on the tornado in Suffolk, but the video is shot a couple of hundred yards from my holiday park. Managed to completely miss it myself which is incredible since our clubhouse where I was working looks over the sea.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1530416/stunning-pictures-of-giant-tornado-tearing-towards-village-pub-in-suffolk/

 

And this is my view, how is it possible I missed it!

 

risky forecasting IMO

 

*September*
Models have consistently hinted at pressure builds through September.
Rather than a month dominated by high pressure, this probably means that there will be a tendency towards rising pressure.
The first part of the month is likely to be dry with sunny spells and perhaps very warm too.
Turning cooler and more unsettled in the second half of the month, with most rainfall in western and southern areas.

*October*
The high pressure may well be building again into the early parts of October. This is going to be bringing fair conditions, especially in the first part of the month. Perhaps very warm.
Becoming more unsettled later in the month, a breakdown into more autumnal conditions.

Simon Keeling

 

Have you got a link for that?

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 right here MR Brain, http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Seasonal-outlook

Summer not over yet according to the Beeb 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/36947625

 

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Warmth returning in Mid-August? Just in time for the end of our school holidays up here. Yes, that would be typical!

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Well no sign of this rather odd forecast yet. Also no mention of the insane northerly either.

 

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Tonight's GFS and ECM runs look a bit better for later next week and into the following weekend, and that is approaching the timeframe that Tomasz S was referring to the other night.

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Yes the crazy northerly is getting pushed further and further east hopefully this can continue.

 

 

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But then the week ahead forecast tonight is totally at odds with yesterday's saying it's going to be unseasonably cool.
Basically the complete opposite of yesterday.
They really haven't got a clue.

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True, but neither do the models that they (and we) are following. Hence the uncertainty.

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Friday 12 Aug 2016 to Sunday 21 Aug 2016:

A north-south split to the weather is likely on Friday and into the weekend, with cloudier and windier conditions in the north and outbreaks of rain, whereas further south and east should see drier, brighter weather, and lighter winds. Into the start of the week, there is a low chance of hot and fine weather briefly pushing in from the near continent into southern parts but also bringing a risk of thunderstorms. Thereafter, probably changeable and breezy for most, even across the southeast, with showers or longer spells of rain interspersed with drier and brighter spells. Northwestern parts should see the heaviest rain and the southeast the driest and brightest weather. Temperatures generally around normal, though likely to be rather warm at times in the south.

UK Outlook for Monday 22 Aug 2016 to Monday 5 Sep 2016:

There remains some uncertainty in the forecast during late August and early September, but the most likely scenario is for it to turn more unsettled for all parts. Most places are likely to see showers or longer spells of rain along with stronger winds, these interspersed with drier and brighter weather. The heaviest and most persistent rain is likely to occur in northern areas, with the best of the drier, brighter weather in the south. The temperature will probably average out at around normal for the time of year.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

BBC Monthly outlook

Monday 8 August—Monday 15 August
Cool and breezy start but warming up again later

This week will start on a cool, showery and breezy note, with most of the showers likely across Scotland and Northern Ireland. In between the showers, there will be plenty of sunny spells and in any shelter, it will feel quite pleasant, especially in the south. Nighttimes, however, will be much cooler than the weekend just past, with a touch of grass frost possible in the north particularly Monday on night. Wednesday will see a band of rain move eastwards across the country, with some heavy bursts possible in the north, whilst some southern areas will see very little rain. From Thursday onwards we are likely to see a north-south split develop across the UK, with southern areas seeing plenty of dry and bright weather. Northern areas will see some further rain at times and the rain will occasionally be accompanied by a brisk breeze. Temperatures for all areas will gradually recover to nearer normal for the time of year, with southern areas becoming very warm in the sunnier spells by the weekend

Monday 15 August—Monday 22 August
A very warm start, but cooling down later

Next week is set to start on a largely dry and bright note with high pressure in charge across most of the UK. There will be warm spells of sunshine for many, particularly in the south. The far northwest, however, is likely to see some breezy and wet weather at times, with this gradually moving southeastwards across many northern and western areas. At the same time southern and eastern areas may perhaps see some very warm or hot conditions moving up from the south, but this, in turn, may bring the risk of some thundery downpours developing. During the second half of the week and into the weekend, the changeable weather is likely to win the battle and gradually move eastwards across many parts of the UK. Temperatures are also likely to fall back to around normal for the time of year.

Monday 22 August—Sunday 11 September
Signs of an unsettled start to autumn

As we end August and start September it is looking likely that the weather will remain rather changeable, with frequent spells of rain and strong winds moving across the UK. In between the wind and rain we are likely to see some drier and brighter intervals, with southern and eastern areas perhaps more favoured to see these. Temperatures are likely to be near normal for the time of year, but it could feel rather cool in the wind and rain.

Next week

Will Summer end on a high or a low?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Saturday 13 Aug 2016 to Monday 22 Aug 2016:

Predominantly fine weather can be expected this weekend, with Sunday probably the best of the two days in regards to both sunshine and warmth. On Saturday, there is a likelihood of catching one or two showers across central and northern areas, but that risk becoming confined to northern Scotland by Sunday. At the start of next week, it's expected to turn hot and humid with a good deal of hazy sunshine, especially across southern, central and eastern Britain. However, by mid-week, this short spell of hot weather is expected to break-down as rain spreads from the west, potentially with thunderstorms for a time. By next weekend, a return to somewhat cooler, changeable weather is anticipated, with the weather generally driest and warmest in the south.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 23 Aug 2016 to Tuesday 6 Sep 2016:

Early indications suggest a trend towards increased mobility of weather systems from the Atlantic during this period. This would mean an increased likelihood of spells of wet and windy weather across all parts, though particularly to the north and west of the country. Still some dry and sunny weather around at times, especially in the south and east. Temperatures are expected to be near or just below the seasonal norm.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Sunday 14 Aug 2016 to Tuesday 23 Aug 2016:

Sunday looks likely to be dry and warm across the bulk of the British Isles with sunny spells and only light breezes. Then during Monday and Tuesday the latest indications are that it will remain dry and that it will become very warm, or perhaps locally hot, as a southeasterly airflow develops. A good deal of sunshine is likely during this period. However, as we head into the middle and latter part of next week there are signs that this short spell of hot, settled weather will break down as thundery showers or longer spells of rain encroach from the southwest. Therefore by next weekend a return to somewhat cooler, fresher, changeable weather is likely to have occurred, with the weather generally driest and warmest in the southeast.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Aug 2016 to Wednesday 7 Sep 2016:

The current indications are that the latter part of August and the first week of September will be changeable, or perhaps unsettled at times, with periods of rain or showers interspersed with drier brighter conditions with sunny intervals. The rain and showers are likely to be most prevalent across northwestern areas, more especially during late August, whereas the best of the drier, sunnier conditions are more likely to occur in the southeast, perhaps more so during early September. There should be some warm days at times, especially in the south, but overall the temperature should average out at close to normal for the time of year.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

They have done it again. The weekly forecast contains a out-take at the start they have not edited out...but be quick they will realise soon.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/37029140

Still suggesting we might just see an isolated 30C next week if we are really lucky.

 

 

 

Uppers of 15'c would likely deliver that

Finally a tabloid weather article that's not a complete load of hyperbolics :)

http://metro.co.uk/2016/08/11/heres-what-the-spanish-plume-two-week-heatwave-actually-looks-like-6060753/ 

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Brian, you have at last been recognised up here for your forecasting skills by our local daily paper the Courier. I just hope that your forecast warmth contains some dryness!!
a soggy Symon

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https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/local/dundee/268451/sunshine-after-the-gloom-for-courier-country/ 

"The Weather Outlook forecaster Brian Gaze added: “Scotland will share the warmth. The warm southerly flow will be a big contrast to the week’s chilly airstream.”"

 

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">http://metro.co.uk/2016/08/11/heres-what-the-spanish-plume-two-week-heatwave-actually-looks-like-6060753/