theweatheroutlook

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KevBrads1
13 August 2016 05:47:13
Front page of Mirror has 90F scorcher.

Met Office only goes for 24C for London has a high next week.

The heatwave has vanished, just looks warm to very warm.
MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
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tallyho_83
13 August 2016 21:29:33


MR FISH WEATHER FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK,http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=7545;sess=


very interesting


Originally Posted by: sizzle 


 


My gosh! He is still doing it!! ? well done to him!!


What are your thoughts on this especially the last sentence at bottom or still too early to tell?


http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/uk-winter-weather-forecast-201617/


 


 


 

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Jiries
14 August 2016 08:33:58

As I am expecting around 30-31C on Tues/Wed, the BBC forecasts only put low 20's?  I checked the graph this morning and a few day heatwave is still on.  Not sure why they put it very low but I guess they are using daily mean of 23-24C so likely around 17-18C at night to 30-31C by day time.

LeedsLad123
14 August 2016 08:40:29


As I am expecting around 30-31C on Tues/Wed, the BBC forecasts only put low 20's?  I checked the graph this morning and a few day heatwave is still on.  Not sure why they put it very low but I guess they are using daily mean of 23-24C so likely around 17-18C at night to 30-31C by day time.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 


No, they are using daytime max temps. Most places will be lucky to see 25C let alone 31C.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
doctormog
14 August 2016 09:01:28


As I am expecting around 30-31C on Tues/Wed, the BBC forecasts only put low 20's?  I checked the graph this morning and a few day heatwave is still on.  Not sure why they put it very low but I guess they are using daily mean of 23-24C so likely around 17-18C at night to 30-31C by day time.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 


Are you in the UK currently?  As LeedsLad says 31°C is not predicted for the anywhere in the UK in the coming week. The BBC forecast just now did suggest somewhere in the west of England or Wales may possibly reach the high 20s.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
idj20
14 August 2016 09:03:17


As I am expecting around 30-31C on Tues/Wed, the BBC forecasts only put low 20's?  I checked the graph this morning and a few day heatwave is still on.  Not sure why they put it very low but I guess they are using daily mean of 23-24C so likely around 17-18C at night to 30-31C by day time.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Can tell you go through several days without looking at the models.  The perils of placing too much confidence on a forecast that was still five days away and thus there'll still be some mind changings. Indeed for a time the models had been playing about with the idea of 30 C over the South East on the above mentioned days, but it had been downgraded since then and the BBC medium range forecast is having to follow suit - but that said, it'll still be feeling summer-like at least in the first half of this coming week anyway.

Folkestone Harbour. 
Jiries
14 August 2016 09:11:16




Can tell you go through several days without looking at the models.  The perils of placing too much confidence on a forecast that was still five days away and thus there'll still be some mind changings. Indeed for a time the models had been playing about with the idea of 30 C over the South East on the above mentioned days, but it had been downgraded since then and the BBC medium range forecast is having to follow suit - but that said, it'll still be feeling summer-like at least in the first half of this coming week anyway.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


I only look at the ensembles now and it haven't change at all as it still showing 15C uppers so why they removed 30C for no reason? unlike they don't like the heat and decided to go for low 20C.

tallyho_83
14 August 2016 11:32:14
Yes been a downgrade in next weeks heatwave' or short-lived one as John Hammond forecasted on Thursday and Friday:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20160814 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


idj20
14 August 2016 12:20:48


 


I only look at the ensembles now and it haven't change at all as it still showing 15C uppers so why they removed 30C for no reason? unlike they don't like the heat and decided to go for low 20C.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Correct me if I'm mistaken but I'm not sure if 15 C uppers is enough to produce 30 C at surface level? I usually get "excited" about hot weather when the 850's exceed 20 C within the "reliable" forecast range (four days or less) and even then surface conditions could still end up being different anyway.

In fact, placing the latest model run under a magnifying glass shows only 10 C to 13 C uppers over the South East at the "peak" of the so-called "heatwave" on Tuesday afternoon as we have lost that modelled long fetch airflow in from Africa - so it's little wonder how there is that downgrade. The folly of putting too much faith on an output that was still a long way off in forecasting terms.

Folkestone Harbour. 
doctormog
14 August 2016 12:51:50

Spot on Ian. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
springsunshine
14 August 2016 15:48:46


As I am expecting around 30-31C on Tues/Wed, the BBC forecasts only put low 20's?  I checked the graph this morning and a few day heatwave is still on.  Not sure why they put it very low but I guess they are using daily mean of 23-24C so likely around 17-18C at night to 30-31C by day time.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 


In your dreams!! Aint going to happen! Some places will see 25c-27c at the most with the bulk of the uk between 20c-25c so no heatwave,pleasant August weather nonetheless.The chances of seeing 30c+ are very remote to non existant now,for this year!

moomin75
15 August 2016 05:17:39


 


In your dreams!! Aint going to happen! Some places will see 25c-27c at the most with the bulk of the uk between 20c-25c so no heatwave,pleasant August weather nonetheless.The chances of seeing 30c+ are very remote to non existant now,for this year!


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 

Remote maybe, but certainly not non-existant as this chart would suggest.


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2522.gif


 


Anything is possible....Remember we touched 30c in October a few years ago....so to say that it's non existant chances is a bit premature IMO.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
doctormog
15 August 2016 06:31:07

A high of 15°C here today according to the BBC. Let's see, given their track record on temperature forecast for the last few years, how accurate this one this.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
turbotubbs
15 August 2016 15:20:10

This may not be the right place for this, and we are in the silly season, but I couldn't resist posting this!


 


http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/537535/britain-mini-ice-age-widespread-blackouts


 


Bound to get Joe Public talking about how it will be a cold winter etc etc etc.


 


I know they have to sell papers but do they really have NO standards at all?

sizzle
16 August 2016 07:45:35


 


 


My gosh! He is still doing it!! ? well done to him!!


What are your thoughts on this especially the last sentence at bottom or still too early to tell?


http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/uk-winter-weather-forecast-201617/


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

I think still early days on winter we all know how models flip but then again I did hear/read somewhere winter may be colder and crispier than last year/previous years. have to wait and see,

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
16 August 2016 13:00:14


I think still early days on winter we all know how models flip but then again I did hear/read somewhere winter may be colder and crispier than last year/previous years. have to wait and see,


Originally Posted by: sizzle 


Almost impossible for it not to be colder than last year's. 


I took a photo of an American friend having coffee with us in shirtsleeves last January on an outdoor cafe terrace. I've had to send her a copy now she's back in the States  because her friends there won't believe midwinter could be so warm in the latitude of e.g. Quebec

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
LeedsLad123
16 August 2016 13:14:40
Most places in the US are capable of being warmer than us in January though, but also much colder. Such is the nature of continental climates.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Crepuscular Ray
20 August 2016 16:13:54
Just watched the week ahead from the BBC. Looks like a damp cloudy week for Scotland 17-19 C. An uninspiring week to end an uninspiring month!
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Gavin D
26 August 2016 19:42:53
UK Outlook for Wednesday 31 Aug 2016 to Friday 9 Sep 2016:

A band of rain will move southeastwards across the country on Wednesday. There is a risk of thundery showers breaking out ahead of the rain across central and southeastern parts of England. Brighter but showery weather will follow into the northwest, but southern and eastern parts are likely to become mainly dry. The weather through the rest of the period is likely to be changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed by some dry and brighter periods. The wettest and windiest weather is likely to occur in the north and west, although there is a low risk of thundery showers affecting the south at times. Temperatures will be generally near or a little above normal, although there is the chance of some warmer spells, especially in the southeast.

UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Sep 2016 to Thursday 22 Sep 2016:

There is some doubt in the detail of the forecast for this period, but the most likely scenario is for westerly or southwesterly winds to dominate. This will bring changeable weather, with showers or longer spells of rain interspersed by some dry and bright periods. The heaviest and most persistent rain is expected to occur in the north and west, where it could also be windy at times. The best of the brighter weather probably occurring in the south and east. A trend towards drier and more settled conditions looks more possible during the second half of September. Temperatures through this period are likely to be generally above average, with any colder spells being transient.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 
Gavin D
27 August 2016 11:14:51
UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Sep 2016 to Saturday 10 Sep 2016:

Thursday is likely to be dry for many, apart from a few showers in the northwest, and a band of patchy rain across parts of Wales and central England. This weakening band of rain will gradually move southeastwards on Friday, but at the same time another band of rain will move in from the northwest, which will be accompanied by some strong winds. Thereafter the changeable pattern is likely to continue, with showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed by some drier and brighter periods. The wettest and windiest weather is likely across the northwest, although there is a low risk of thundery showers occasionally affecting the south. Temperatures, generally near or a little above normal, although there is the chance of some warmer spells, especially in the southeast.

UK Outlook for Sunday 11 Sep 2016 to Sunday 25 Sep 2016:

There is some doubt in the detail of the forecast for this period, but the most likely scenario is for westerly or southwesterly winds to dominate. This will bring changeable weather, with showers or longer spells of rain interspersed by some dry and bright periods. The heaviest and most persistent rain is expected to occur in the north and west, where it could also be windy at times. The best of the brighter weather probably occurring in the south and east. A trend towards drier and more settled conditions looks more possible during the second half of September. Temperatures through this period are likely to be generally above average, with any colder spells being transient.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 
Brian Gaze
27 August 2016 11:23:54

UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Sep 2016 to Saturday 10 Sep 2016:

Thursday is likely to be dry for many, apart from a few showers in the northwest, and a band of patchy rain across parts of Wales and central England. This weakening band of rain will gradually move southeastwards on Friday, but at the same time another band of rain will move in from the northwest, which will be accompanied by some strong winds. Thereafter the changeable pattern is likely to continue, with showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed by some drier and brighter periods. The wettest and windiest weather is likely across the northwest, although there is a low risk of thundery showers occasionally affecting the south. Temperatures, generally near or a little above normal, although there is the chance of some warmer spells, especially in the southeast.

UK Outlook for Sunday 11 Sep 2016 to Sunday 25 Sep 2016:

There is some doubt in the detail of the forecast for this period, but the most likely scenario is for westerly or southwesterly winds to dominate. This will bring changeable weather, with showers or longer spells of rain interspersed by some dry and bright periods. The heaviest and most persistent rain is expected to occur in the north and west, where it could also be windy at times. The best of the brighter weather probably occurring in the south and east. A trend towards drier and more settled conditions looks more possible during the second half of September. Temperatures through this period are likely to be generally above average, with any colder spells being transient.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


This made me laugh. Isn't there always doubt at this range? 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
sizzle
27 August 2016 18:31:44

This made me laugh. Isn't there always doubt at this range?  that's why I laugh at forecasters who forecast 3 months ahead at best do a month ahead but atleast  tweek it half way thru the month like 2 weeks in . but seriously, this is why I like terry scholeys forecast 1st and 15th of the month

Gavin D
28 August 2016 14:38:39
Met office update

UK Outlook for Friday 2 Sep 2016 to Sunday 11 Sep 2016:

Outbreaks of rain in the northwest, occasionally heavy, will move erratically east or southeast on Friday and Saturday, weakening as it does so. This will clear to brighter, but showery conditions with the showers most frequent in the northwest. Thereafter there is some uncertainty, however it is most likely to remain changeable, with showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed with drier and brighter conditions. The wettest and windiest weather is likely across the northwest with the driest and sunniest conditions in the southeast, though even here there is a low risk of thundery showers at times. Temperatures will generally be near or a little above normal, with warmer spells in the east at times.

UK Outlook for Monday 12 Sep 2016 to Monday 26 Sep 2016:

Confidence remains low in the forecast for this period, however the most likely scenario is for the changeable, and at times rather unsettled, weather to continue, at least through the start of this period. This will bring showers or outbreaks of rain, these interspersed with drier and brighter interludes. The heaviest rain and stronger winds are likely in the northwest, with the drier conditions and lighter winds in the southeast. A trend towards drier and more settled conditions looks possible during the second half of September. Temperatures are likely to be above normal.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 
Gavin D
29 August 2016 10:13:51
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook 

Monday 29 August—Sunday 4 September
Autumn starts on a positive note

Climatological autumn starts on the 1st September and there should be a good deal of dry and bright weather to go with it. The best of that is expected in the southeast of the UK, where it will be quite warm with light winds for most of the time. The northwest of the UK is more likely to see some rain at times, that may well arrive on a keen breeze. Some rain is likely in the northwest late on Monday and late on Tuesday, maybe some showers lingering into Wednesday. A more active band of rain is expected to come in from the Atlantic by the end of the week. That will move south and east into the weekend but weakening as it does so not much rain in the southeast. Brighter but more showery weather will follow with most of the showers in the northwest.

Monday 5 September—Sunday 11 September
A warm spell for some.

Ex-Gaston does not look like it will have direct impact on our weather but more of a remote influence. It looks like it will be pushing some warmer air our way. The most likely scenario is to see pressure rising across the south of the UK with low pressure to the north, maintaining the west or southwesterly air flow. It looks like quite a warm spell will develop under the high in the south with the highest temperatures in the southeast, temperatures further north and west look nearer the norm. Some parts of the north and west could see a bit more rain than you might expect, amounts should be closer to normal elsewhere.

Monday 12 September—Sunday 25 September
A mobile westerly?

While confidence in the detail is quite low the most preferred solution at this stage is to keep a mobile westerly going but with uncertainties associated with any tropical developments in the Atlantic. The pressure pattern will probably be quite similar with high pressure to the south and lower pressure to the north. In this sort of set up you would expect, the strongest winds and most of the rain in the northwest and it looks like Northern Ireland may well see more than average amounts of rain while East Anglia may well be a lot drier than normal. It looks like it'll stay quite warm for many with temperatures above the average but in Northern Ireland and northern Scotland we'll be nearer to normal.

Next week

We'll take a look at the last few days of September and the first weekend of October. Will the warmth last?

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