This is so close

How much more would it take for the low to push south and go under, and those high heights go north?

Wherever it goes, the MetO run has no support whatsoever at 144. Let's see what the ensembles say!

I wouldn't have thought so. It takes several weeks for the SSW to propagate down. I think this is more related to an absence of cold air being advected from Canada.

Freezing rain risk if this comes off. The geostropic wind is southerly and is pulling in warm uppers, but the surface wind is still backed south easterly and keeping things relatively cold.

These charts resemble March 2006, brought a lot of snow to western parts of England.

Unfortunately the road to this chart is one of milder air first.  But with a bit of correction this could be a nice result.

Brought blizzard conditions on a fairly last minute forecast.  Had been a dross month till then.

Some energy going south on the Parallel run.

Its telling the parallel GFS runs have been more reluctant to return to zonality.

I wouldn't say no to this set up as it would suggest some potential for a more active set up down the line, but given that it is the last frame of the GFS run this evening, I won't hold by breath.

Yes, looks like N. Ireland and Scotland will be in the milder SW air and the south and south east (ENGLAND) is still influence by a South easterly wind - as you know it's been very cold over the continent - so this would mean cold air.

I mentioned yesterday that there was evidence of the ebbing away of high pressure being delayed.  The trend over recent days has been in this direction, hasn't it?  The question is how much longer can it drift: we've gone from early next week to late next week.

It may be my faulty memory but I don't recall too many occcaions when a pattern change has been so difficult for the models to predict for so long, both in terms of timing and shape.

ECM will be interesting again. The $64,000 question remains whether and for how long enough upper warmth can get north or whether it will sit to our south wit the jet driving it aside. Still rather unclear IMO.

UKMO remains flat and progressive but many of the GEFS are more amplified at 144 and ECM is also better though it will likely end up in the same place

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017011812/ECH1-144.GIF?18-0

I remember Ian McCaskill used to say that a mild southerly could easily change to a cold south easterly.

Iceman said the other day that he thought the Scandi high would be back, I dismissed it but there is an outside chance, maybe not this time but perhaps it will have another go in early Feb

Scandi HP back-maybe but hopefully in a better position although HP to S,E as currently,is a more likely outcome.I'm reminded of a song by the AWB "lets go round again"

The way this block is fending off the Atlantic (as shown by the GFS) puts me in the mind of some of those Muhammad Ali fights all those years ago,  The opponent would be battering away with Ali on the ropes for long periods of the fight but the great champion would not give.  Can we see the block emulate the great champion, break free and deliver the sucker punch…..

Can everyone stay on topic please and don't feed the zonality machine.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see something special in the models over the next day or so if high pressure continues to keep its strangle hold over the southern half of the U.K. Meanwhile +7 degrees or lower IMBY is certainly seasonal to say the least!

18Z continues the trend.

One other interesting thing of note, the cold pool in western Greenland is much weaker. That should mean the LP will also not be able to intensify as much as on the 12Z.

18Z looks like a massive upgrade so far:

Some communication beginning to occur between the Canadian high and Greenland, much more than we saw on the 12Z. The attack face of the low continues to back further towards southerly. This is the point where it will really struggle to push through and could even undercut. 552 Isopleth continues to be projected further and further north.

yes... zonality keeps getting pushed back. WAA has more of a westerly component too.... inching towards a Scandi block perhaps?