you’ve got quite a stash of stuff up there in the north east, Nick😛😛

Originally Posted by: Chichesterweatherfan2 

Massive, massive underestimate of asymptomatic cases (and the likelihood they were in Europe far, far earlier), and they are big spreaders. The death rate being quoted is based on symptomatic cases. I'm not sure I agree with what I've been told, but I'm more shocked now than before, hence the booze...

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Agreed, it’s ridiculous. Lots of people got a bad cold/chest infection around Christmas. What else is new. So many posts in social media trying to claim they had this virus “before it was cool”. I’m reminded of this. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/health/hipster-claiming-to-have-covid-18-20200309194292%3fformat=amp

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Sorry but that doesn’t make any sense at all. Why would all  of the first wave of cases be asymptomatic or mild, with severe and fatal cases suddenly appearing later on in a classic exponential curve? I just don’t see how that could happen. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Back to Ursula von der Leyen and her completely irresponsible comment today - irresponsible, because people will see the headline comment and expect a vaccine in the autumn.

I have tried to spread some realism about that and now the BBC Website has posted the following:

How close are we to a vaccine?

Let's dig a little deeper into this.

The head of the EU commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has said a German company could have a vaccine ready by the autumn.

But how likely is this? And what needs to happen for us to get there?

So far, researchers have developed vaccines and are starting to test them. There could be human trials by the end of the year if these tests go well.

But, even if a vaccine is developed before 2021, there's still a major hurdle beyond that in the shape of firms being able to successfully mass-produce doses.

It means, realistically, one would not be ready until at least the middle of next year.

Here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51921683

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

 I bought 3 houses for my no deal stockpiling

Originally Posted by: NickR 

I've now had a full debrief on the science. My last post on the subject now as I've chosen to drink quite heavily. Please don't be complacent. Good news - there might be a chance are we're already up to near 20m+ (virus has been here since Dec19, undiagnosed deaths etc.), but we need to push for antibody tests. Do not push for the viral tests. Worthless.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Walked out of my local Sainsbury's tonight. The place has been stripped. It's getting worse now as all the fresh fruit and veg has gone this time. Fresh meat, Baked beans, Soup, Tinned veg, Pasta, Eggs, Dog and Cat Food, Toilet Rolls..... It's fxcking madness. I can only shop at that time as I start work so early. I feel so sorry for people who really need this stuff and can't because of these selfish and profiteering cxnts

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

The problem, never mind the task of thorough testing, is the sheer number of doses required.  Just covering the most at risk means hundreds of millions are required. For comparison around 160m flu shots are made each year, so as much as five times as many.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

You have no idea!

To be fair, the vast majority is my no deal stockpile. It's split into 3 areas of the house. Unfortunately I only did an inventory for the stuff under the stairs. All I know is there are a sh_it tonne of various types of beans somewhere, so when the good stuff runs out, it's chilli sin carne for 2 months!

Glad I did non-food stuff too, though as I proudly announced to Mrs R that I had bought a 96 wash pack of laundry detergent, she asked if I'd bought fabric conditioner too. Reader, I regret to say that I had not.

Originally Posted by: NickR 

I said I wouldn't say any more but...

12 to 18 months bare minimum on a vaccine.

In terms of tracked cases the best immunity we have is now nearly 3 months post infection. There have been a very small number of cases of re-infection after being cleared. That's a worry. Very early days on tracking post infection cases - if there are more recurrences on infection then all bets might be off in a vaccine. As I said before, this may turn into a flu type situation where new vaccines need to be formulated each year in several flavours. Make no mistake, this is a nasty fucker of a virus.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Only one thing to stop this IMO: Rationing!

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

I think Beast is a socialist and his mates are right wing nationalists. Your point is valid regardless.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

He bangs on about spivs and shysters who care nothing for anybody else. Imagine my surprise when he also turned out to be a selfish pr1ck.

Edit: I had it confirmed by a GP today that I am in the 'high risk' category. So while Geoff (Beast) can stick two fingers up at everybody and lord it in the pub, I and 1.5 million others face being confined to our homes for 12 weeks from Saturday.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

Well that’s good then. We only have to have a breath of wind in N Norfolk and the power goes awry, so we are used to having power cuts. 

Originally Posted by: chelseagirl 

I'm not buying it. Look at the surge in deaths in Italy and increasingly France and Spain. Britain too has started to measure an increase in recent days.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Tesco are closing 24-hour stores between 10pm and 6am for staff to restock the shelves 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Well I had whatever was going around between Christmas and New Year and I've never ever had anything like it before. The symptoms matched Covid (mild) to a tee. Dry cough that developed over a couple of days, shortness of breath where every breath triggered more dry coughing etc. 

I would not be at all surprised if THIS covid we see now is a mutation of the original pathogen.

As I understand it, there was a peak in pneumonia cases around this time too.

Originally Posted by: CreweCold 

Indeed.
From the start things have not quite added up, this could turn out to be a fine example of little more than accidentally engineered mass hysteria over a disease with death rate no worse than normal flu.
Now you think - but Italy.
It's a hotspot but the antibody tests need to be rolled out fast to know what's going on

New coronaviruses emerge all the time, if you aren't careful it's way too easy to misinterpret things.
If you suddenly assign all 'normal' flu deaths to the strain you just found, it suddenly looks alarming.
This is what happened in Wuhan and the media ran with it and now we are where we are - for no good reason most likely.

Just some thoughts, don't be complacent but the International panic is a complete over-reaction we will see this soon.

Originally Posted by: four 

 Whilst talking to a vet as he was doing a caesarian on a cow he was saying much the same. The mas hysteria has over whelmed the science. As you comment testing is vital as quick as possible.

Originally Posted by: bledur