theweatheroutlook

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Jiries
23 April 2024 14:37:50

Can confirm this somewhat. Many of the winter lows passed directly over my head, which help quell storm potential and leaving us stuck in a sort of dank, grey dondrum for much of the time. Big storms that used to affect this part of the world depend tightly wound lows passing between here and Iceland, but that never really happens anymore. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



All type of LP and HP had changed a lot now we get same LP for months, HP in wrong place so we not getting any seasonal weather with summery weather in summer or wintery weather in winter.  On the old days of model watching I used to see LP or HP move east freely so we get more varietyof weather, that including warm dry settled spells but something now preventing it happening and get stuck with same LP or wrong placed HP is a lose-lose for UK.
+2
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 April 2024 07:35:54
WX temps less optimistic than yesterday. Week 1 is still cool for NW Europe incl Britain, though towards the east temps are nearer to norm. Then in week 2 warm weather approaches; from the east but as shown today only gets as far as E Germany, and from the south but does not cross the Pyrenees. Britain and the Baltic still cool. Rain forecast quite generally for Europe in both weeks, in week 1 a less wet area near Poland and in week 2  less wet areas for Spain and N Norway.

GFS Op - opening consistently with yesterday, starting with LP over the N Sea feeding N-lies affecting esp the E Coast followed by another cold LP running SE-wards to Biscay 990mb Sat 27th which then reverses direction. Its centre performs anti-clockwise circuits over all parts of Britain, central pressure ca 1000mb, but this persists for longer than shown yesterday, not relenting until Wed 8th when it moves to Denmark (yesterday shown as moving to France). After that HP moves up from the SW to become centred Brittany bringing much milder weather.

ECM - is briefly better than GFS; the LP Sat 27th only does one circuit before departing S-wards reaching Portugal Thu 2nd 1000mb. However pressure then falls over S Norway 1000mb Sat 4th bringing back the N/NE-lies albeit this time not directly linked to the Arctic.

GEFS - temps rise back to norm Sun 28thand the mean stays there through to Fri 10th but with ens agreement breaking up after Wed 1st - typically one very cold run balanced by 2 or 3 very warm ones out of the 33. Rain in small quantities from time to time, most likely around Sat 27th (heavier in N & W at this time) but dates around Thu 2nd and Mon 6th also to be watched, and more likely to be continual in the west.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Viking3
24 April 2024 10:56:00

You could argue that prevalence of south westerlies has been increasing for Hertfordshire.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Ulric 




The Open-Meteo resource is amazing! I've done something similar for a point offshore Aberdeen at 57.0N 1.5W - winds over land here can be quite strongly influenced by topography so I wanted an open water location to try and sample the gradient rather than local flow.

I used hourly data from 1940 to 2023 and split winds into 8 bins each of 45 degrees, so SW ranges from 202 to 247 degrees. The chart shows the annual percentage of winds from SW, ranging from just 15% in 2010 up to 31% in 1990. I've added a 15-year average and this shows that SW winds have been more prevalent in the second half of the series compared to the first half.

See the chart here 
Keith
Aboyne, Aberdeenshire
135m asl
+1
Taylor1740
24 April 2024 11:16:39
Some very grim looking charts taking us well into May - could be a very condensed Summer season this year.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
doctormog
24 April 2024 11:39:51

The Open-Meteo resource is amazing! I've done something similar for a point offshore Aberdeen at 57.0N 1.5W - winds over land here can be quite strongly influenced by topography so I wanted an open water location to try and sample the gradient rather than local flow.

I used hourly data from 1940 to 2023 and split winds into 8 bins each of 45 degrees, so SW ranges from 202 to 247 degrees. The chart shows the annual percentage of winds from SW, ranging from just 15% in 2010 up to 31% in 1990. I've added a 15-year average and this shows that SW winds have been more prevalent in the second half of the series compared to the first half.

See the chart here 

Originally Posted by: Viking3 



Very interesting, thanks Keith!
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 April 2024 17:06:12

 The chart shows the annual percentage of winds from SW, ranging from just 15% in 2010 up to 31% in 1990. I've added a 15-year average and this shows that SW winds have been more prevalent in the second half of the series compared to the first half.

See the chart here 

Originally Posted by: Viking3 



Interesting, and thanks for the effort.

SW winds on the 15-year average are, yes, more prevalent, but to be miserable and 'rain on your parade', is the difference significant?

To my eye, the change has been from having some years in the last millennium with a high proportion of SW-lies, and equally some without, to this millennium with years in which the year-on-year variation is much smaller. Since the human memory is selective and more readily retains extreme events, I wonder if all those high values in the last millennium have been condensed into a perception of every year, from 20 years ago, having frequent SW-lies?
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
doctormog
24 April 2024 18:08:26
This chart seems to sum up the recent weather nicely up here.

UserPostedImage

it would be so good to see some wamrth or at least “warm-feeling” sunshine. 

I think there continue to be signs of an improvement as we head into May but that is still quite uncertain.

The next 24 hr over Central Europe look equally un-springlike. https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/run/gensprob-26-24.png?12 

 Nothing unprecedented of course just unwelcome given the weeks that have preceded it.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Jiries
24 April 2024 18:28:29

This chart seems to sum up the recent weather nicely up here.

UserPostedImage

it would be so good to see some wamrth or at least “warm-feeling” sunshine. 

I think there continue to be signs of an improvement as we head into May but that is still quite uncertain.

The next 24 hr over Central Europe look equally un-springlike. https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/run/gensprob-26-24.png?12 

 Nothing unprecedented of course just unwelcome given the weeks that have preceded it.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



At least in Europe they had decent warm weather that we did not get any in here and it normal for April with wide swings and you have confident it will warm up asap than here zero confident to get anything remotely warm enough.
+1
Viking3
24 April 2024 19:17:13

Interesting, and thanks for the effort.

SW winds on the 15-year average are, yes, more prevalent, but to be miserable and 'rain on your parade', is the difference significant?

To my eye, the change has been from having some years in the last millennium with a high proportion of SW-lies, and equally some without, to this millennium with years in which the year-on-year variation is much smaller. Since the human memory is selective and more readily retains extreme events, I wonder if all those high values in the last millennium have been condensed into a perception of every year, from 20 years ago, having frequent SW-lies?

Originally Posted by: DEW 



It was a very coarse analysis of course! Doesn't say anything about what weather occurred with those SW winds, and it would need to include other parameters such as dewpoint, 850mb temperature and precipitation to try and tease out a more nuanced picture. Having said that the Open-Meteo interface will do that in a few seconds so it's certainly feasible.
Keith
Aboyne, Aberdeenshire
135m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
24 April 2024 19:23:10
Lots of high pressure on the 12s but in the wrong place for us Easterners. North Sea muck. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Chunky Pea
24 April 2024 20:03:11
Some great data by Viking about using that great site. I tested wind direction data for my own location regarding winds from an easterly direction (>45 / <135) there has been very little change in frequency between each decade since the 50s, which is surprising to me. 

Decade / % of hours with easterlies
50s: 15.19
60s: 15.26
70s: 16.06
80s: 16.13
90s:15.89
00s:15.78
10s:15.91

Only the slightest uptick during 70s and 80s, with the last 3 decades (up to the end of 2019) more or less the same. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Jiries
24 April 2024 20:44:03

Lots of high pressure on the 12s but in the wrong place for us Easterners. North Sea muck. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Isn't the only way we can get more dryness and sunshine out of it?  They always clear off around 10am to 11am including the SE when i lived there before which is nearer to the east than W Midlands, we get clear skies around 10am average clearance.
Ally Pally Snowman
25 April 2024 05:27:13
Horrific output continues.  2024 the year without a Spring! 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
25 April 2024 07:06:09
WX temps taking two steps back this morning. For week 1, near-average temps in E Europe but below in W Europe incl Britain, and then in week 2 (unlike yesterday) the whole of the continent north of the Alps and Hungary becoming cooler, with some near-freezing weather becoming more extensive into the Baltic. Rain mostly in France in week 1, with some overspill into Britain; generally quite wet except for Spain week 2.

GFS Op - large but shallow LP on the eastern side of the N Sea moving west and combining with the Atlantic to be located over Britain by the weekend, continuing to affect the western coast until Thu 2nd when it moves to S France, pressure rising over Britain but the E-lies are back. Then from Sun 5th to end (Sat 11th) a series of LPs run across or near to N Scotland with winds backing first N-ly then W-ly. 

ECM - similar to GFS though the LP is located further N, over Biscay/N France, with stronger E-lies for Britain.

GEFS - temps rising to slightly above norm by Wed 1st (good agreement between ens members), dropping back to slightly below by Mon 6th (fair agreement) and predictions then spreading over a wide range. Some rain in many runs on many days, most likely to be heavy around Sun 28th for all except far NW where more persistent over a longer period.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Matty H
25 April 2024 08:29:03

Horrific output continues.  2024 the year without a Spring! 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Yep, absolutely dreadful. There’s not even any real hint across the models of anything remotely spring/summer-like in the offing
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
+2
Essan
25 April 2024 08:57:49

Horrific output continues.  2024 the year without a Spring! 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Spring?  I'm still waiting for winter .....
Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
+2
Saint Snow
25 April 2024 09:33:44

Spring?  I'm still waiting for winter .....

Originally Posted by: Essan 




And where was last summer?

😄


It's basically been November for the last 18 months

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+2
sunny coast
25 April 2024 16:13:00

And where was last summer?

😄


It's basically been November for the last 18 months

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 




It was hot last June and at times September ! 
+1
doctormog
25 April 2024 16:38:22
Still signs of things warming up to something more akin to average/springlike as we move into May. The next few days are still on the cool side but tentative signs of something better beyond that, more so in the ensembles and GFS runs than the ECM op runs so caution is needed.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Retron
25 April 2024 16:48:43

It was hot last June and at times September ! 

Originally Posted by: sunny coast 


How quickly people forget, eh?

Here's the CET graph for last year. June was astonishingly warm, with a few records set, as was September. August was your standard "average" (for 91-20) month, i.e. warm compared to the 61-90 averages, and July... started hot, but was then a little below average for most (it was around average here).

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2023/daily_maxtemp_cet_2023.png 


Only one day last summer managed to get into the bottom 5% of all time temperatures, whereas there were loads (as usual) in the top 5%... and that goes back centuries, remember!

Back to the models, and there's no doubt about it - we'll be recording another warmer than average month, which will be 16 in a row. Will the streak finally break in May? Not much chance of that, and I note the Met Office text forecast contains the somewhat ominous (from my POV) text saying:

Temperatures likely to trend upwards, with the chance of a warm to very warm spell in some southern and eastern parts,

and for the longer range bit, a reminder of what we expect at this time of year:

Also worth noting that average temperatures themselves rise by around 1C per week at this time of year.

In other words, it'll get warmer regardless of whether we remain in a northerly flow. Certainly the GFS isn't at all keen to move the jet north, which is quite unusual at this time of year!
 
Leysdown, north Kent
fairweather
25 April 2024 18:20:16
I must be mis-interpreting the charts? Certainly no Spring heatwave but surely much milder, especially in any sun and less windy? The Azores High is heading this way and may nudge the odd ridge in our direction. Bearing in mind, here at least, the mean has been 13C for the last ten days with no max above 15C, hardly any sun and mostly dull and windy. Yes, there may be some rain about, but surely an improvement and better than the last few months?
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 April 2024 07:33:13
WX charts have suddenly developed a dose of optimism. Week 1 shows NW Europe still cool but with things beginning to warm up over Poland, more so than yesterday; then in week 2 much milder weather spreads to the whole of continental Europe (14-16C 24hr average). It doesn't quite cross the Channel but Britain is nevertheless milder than shown yesterday. The rainfall pattern has changed too - in week 1 mainly on the Atlantic near SW Britain and into France; in week 2 for the Atlantic near NW Britain and into Norway. The very dry areas are Poland and then further east.

GFS Op - The current slack LP over Britain hangs around until Wed 1st, mostly around the west, before departing S-wards as pressure rises from the SE and more strongly from the NW. Then a brief intrusion of LP from Norway Sun 5th before HP 1020mb Low Countries Mon 6th brings up strong S-lies, and after LP has had a final bite at NW Scotland the Azores HP is strongly established 1030mb southern N Sea Sat 11th.

ECM - something like GFS at first though the initial LP spends more time in the SE at the weekend before moving to the west and disappearing south. The rise in pressure following is less marked by Sun 5th and in contrast originates from the NE and SW with no LP from Norway.

GEFS - becoming mild after Wed 1st with good ens agreement but after Sun 5th any agreement disappears, mean chugs on near norm but e.g. in the S Thu 9th op is very warm 8C above norm, control is 6C below, similar but less extreme in N. In the S runs have rain Sun 28th or thereabout, some rain likely in many runs around Wed 3rd, otherwise on the dry side; in the N there is less rain but could occur any time. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+7
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
26 April 2024 07:56:37
I’m really looking for a rise in temperature for the Bank Holiday weekend.  Our son. daughter-in-law and 2 year old granddaughter are going glamping on the East Coast.  Rather them than me!  
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
26 April 2024 08:01:55
Mild to warm weather looks set to return for a few days next week but I'd not get carried away with the 0z GFS Ops run just yet. It is a significant outlier between May 7 and 9 down south.

Incidentally I've noticed in recent months that ECM picks up on the mild/warm spells more accurately than GFS at a 5 to 10 day range. This is happening again now with the 1st week in May bump. ECM was showing 5C 850 means a few days ago while GFS is only just moving up there having previously shown more like 2-3C. I suppose it hasn't verified yet though! 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Martybhoy
26 April 2024 18:29:28
IBM are forecasting 18 degrees and sunshine for Friday next week for me. First time I’ve seen anything resembling it this spring. 

also hardly any rain in my forecast for the foreseeable.
200m above sea level
Rural East Ayrshire
Near to the village of Sorn

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