theweatheroutlook

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David M Porter
26 April 2024 20:04:44

IBM are forecasting 18 degrees and sunshine for Friday next week for me. First time I’ve seen anything resembling it this spring. 

also hardly any rain in my forecast for the foreseeable.

Originally Posted by: Martybhoy 



Thank goodness for that. We've already had way more than enough here already in recent weeks, as have so many areas. That said, things have been a bit drier in my area for the most part since mid-month.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Retron
27 April 2024 05:31:20
I see GFS is at it again this morning. 3C at 1PM tomorrow at the wolf centre near Reading... yeah, right!

We saw this in the winter, of course, and temperatures were inevitably several degrees warmer come the time.

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/been.jpg 
UserPostedImage

 
Leysdown, north Kent
Jiries
27 April 2024 05:54:40

I see GFS is at it again this morning. 3C at 1PM tomorrow at the wolf centre near Reading... yeah, right!

We saw this in the winter, of course, and temperatures were inevitably several degrees warmer come the time.

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/been.jpg 
UserPostedImage

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



More like an idiot wrong temperature so won’t happen at all as this weekend finally slowly warming up to mid to high teens by early week.  11C tomorrow so Reading should be 13C not 3C.
White Meadows
27 April 2024 06:40:42
Euro cooling continues this morning…
Still shockingly below average temps for the time of year. Only one instance of 15 degrees in this mornings 2m temp suite for my location on the south coast. 

This is MID MAY. To be honest I can’t remember a year like that. 

I’m now seriously writing off May seeing 20 degrees or at least until the end of the month. 
Anyone would think there’s been some type of global volcanic event. 

 
doctormog
27 April 2024 06:46:04
Good to see the cold anomalies disappearing over the coming week on the GFS op run.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

UserPostedImage 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Jiries
27 April 2024 06:58:11

Good to see the cold anomalies disappearing over the coming week on the GFS op run.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

UserPostedImage 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Spain is the coldest spot after north Russia which is very wrong to happen after they had warm to hot end of winter over Spain.   At least the charts are correcting to adhere the season called Spring mean should be warming up phrase not other way around and the date today is 27th April not 27th October.
+2
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
27 April 2024 07:02:45
WX temps looking like yesterday though a little less optimistic. Week 1, W Europe still cool though something a little warmer approaching from Poland. In week 2 continental Europe generally looking mild and springlike, though not making it across the Channel. Quite a temp gradient from S to N Britain, and similar on the other side of the N Sea with Scotland and S Norway if anything cooler than at present. Rain in week 1 for S Britain, France and on across the Alps; in week 2 for S Britain and France. Dry in various parts of E Europe in both weeks.

GFS Op - current area of LP, not particularly deep, circulating around (mainly W) Britain until Thu 2nd when it moves S-wards to Biscay. Pressure rises but with no real centre near Britain before new LP approaches the SW 1000mb Thu 9th moving SE-wards into France by Sun 12th with some warmer E/SE-lies for Britain albeit with some embedded troughs for the S.

ECM - differs from GFS after Sat 4th when the LP moves from Biscay to Germany, generating E-lies at first but then a more definite pressure rise, 1025mb covering Britain Tue 7th.

GEFS - temps moving from a little below norm to a little above by Wed 1st and staying there though with ens members disagreeing increasingly after Sat 4th. By Mon 13th there is a range of 20C between warmest and coldest! (op run becomes notably cold in Scotland)  Rain for this weekend esp in England, some in many places probable around Fri 3rd, small amounts intermittently in many runs at other times, always wetter in the west.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
doctormog
27 April 2024 07:03:11

Spain is the coldest spot after north Russia which is very wrong to happen after they had warm to hot end of winter over Spain.   At least the charts are correcting to adhere the season called Spring mean should be warming up phrase not other way around and the date today is 27th April not 27th October.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



A modelled persistent Low is responsible for that cool weather in Spain. I suspect when it shifts there will be a rapid rise in temperature (as shown on the ECM 00z op run)
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
27 April 2024 07:17:02

Euro cooling continues this morning…
Still shockingly below average temps for the time of year. Only one instance of 15 degrees in this mornings 2m temp suite for my location on the south coast. 

This is MID MAY. To be honest I can’t remember a year like that. 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



A longer memory helps - there were a number of years in the late 60s/early 70s when temps at least in NW England didn't reach 20C until well into June, including but not limited to the county cricket match snowed off at Buxton June 2nd 1975.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
27 April 2024 07:36:23
In 1979 England had snow falling somewhere every day during the first week of May.
There have been many far worse periods of cold and wet but the longer it goes on the more dramatic is the sudden change that inevitably follows.
https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2016/04/27/snow-in-late-april-more-common-than-you-may-think/ 
North York Moors weather 
+5
Chunky Pea
27 April 2024 07:41:47

Euro cooling continues this morning…
Still shockingly below average temps for the time of year. Only one instance of 15 degrees in this mornings 2m temp suite for my location on the south coast. 

This is MID MAY. To be honest I can’t remember a year like that. 

I’m now seriously writing off May seeing 20 degrees or at least until the end of the month. 
Anyone would think there’s been some type of global volcanic event. 

 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



It all looks pretty average and typical for the time of year to me. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
White Meadows
27 April 2024 08:09:23
Last April snow was 2008 here. 16 year break from such cold for April but that was a short lived affair much as the other highlighted events.
What we’re experiencing now is a prolonged cool and wet period meaning spring just has not sprung. 
richardabdn
27 April 2024 09:27:35

A longer memory helps - there were a number of years in the late 60s/early 70s when temps at least in NW England didn't reach 20C until well into June, including but not limited to the county cricket match snowed off at Buxton June 2nd 1975.

Originally Posted by: DEW 



Don't need to have a long memory when you have weather records. The relentless cold, bleak and unsettled rubbish we are enduring this year was absolutely not typical during the 60s or 70s. 

The highest temperature here in the second half of April has been 12C and there has been one dry day. Going back to 1961 only 1973, 1983 and 2012 had a comparable lack of warmth during the second half of April and none were as unsettled.

1969 was the only year of the 60s to have a second half of April as cold as this and the main difference is that it followed on from an exceptionally cold and snowy February so we weren't still getting the same temperatures for three months solid. Also the cold weather back then was not as hideous as this as evidenced from it actually being possible to get frost,  something that has not happened this month due to the relentless cloud/wind/rain.

Only two years in the 1970s (1972 and 1974) at Dyce failed to reach 20C by June whereas currently we are on a run of three years where that has not happened and wouldn't be surprised if this is a fourth. Even in the colder 1960s there were only four years the entire decade that 20C was not reached by June (1961, 1962, 1963, 1968). 1980-82 all reached 20C in May so the 19 year period 1964-82 only had three years in total that 20C was not reached by end of May compared to 10 since 2005 i.e. the majority.

A truly awful time to be alive 👎
Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
+2
Jiries
27 April 2024 10:45:11

Last April snow was 2008 here. 16 year break from such cold for April but that was a short lived affair much as the other highlighted events.
What we’re experiencing now is a prolonged cool and wet period meaning spring just has not sprung. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



There possibility of positive signs to see temperatures reaching to normal warm Spring days of low 20;s to mid 20 's in May from what I read on NW as all of them seeking for normal warmth.  Just hope it sticking to it and not to take away our rights for normal warm Spring days and must be sooner than later.
+1
White Meadows
27 April 2024 13:15:04

Don't need to have a long memory when you have weather records. The relentless cold, bleak and unsettled rubbish we are enduring this year was absolutely not typical during the 60s or 70s. 

The highest temperature here in the second half of April has been 12C and there has been one dry day. Going back to 1961 only 1973, 1983 and 2012 had a comparable lack of warmth during the second half of April and none were as unsettled.

1969 was the only year of the 60s to have a second half of April as cold as this and the main difference is that it followed on from an exceptionally cold and snowy February so we weren't still getting the same temperatures for three months solid. Also the cold weather back then was not as hideous as this as evidenced from it actually being possible to get frost,  something that has not happened this month due to the relentless cloud/wind/rain.

Only two years in the 1970s (1972 and 1974) at Dyce failed to reach 20C by June whereas currently we are on a run of three years where that has not happened and wouldn't be surprised if this is a fourth. Even in the colder 1960s there were only four years the entire decade that 20C was not reached by June (1961, 1962, 1963, 1968). 1980-82 all reached 20C in May so the 19 year period 1964-82 only had three years in total that 20C was not reached by end of May compared to 10 since 2005 i.e. the majority.

A truly awful time to be alive 👎

Originally Posted by: richardabdn 


Fantastic post…
and importantly puts things in perspective  just how poor this spring has been in general. 
There sometimes seems to be an air of superiority and self righteousness from remembering 60’s weather events first hand. Such memories must be skewed and decayed. 
fairweather
27 April 2024 14:25:13
Warm then average with some rain. What I would call good weather for gardeners.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
BJBlake
  • BJBlake
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
27 April 2024 14:49:05

In 1979 England had snow falling somewhere every day during the first week of May.
There have been many far worse periods of cold and wet but the longer it goes on the more dramatic is the sudden change that inevitably follows.
https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2016/04/27/snow-in-late-april-more-common-than-you-may-think/ 

Originally Posted by: four 

yes I remember that. I fed then at 300ft A.S.L and we had snow flakes gently falling from small cumulus clouds on a few days in early May and the ground temp was 7 degrees C, but the upper air was very cold, and some hard night frosts. 
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
BJBlake
  • BJBlake
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
27 April 2024 14:50:49

Fantastic post…
and importantly puts things in perspective  just how poor this spring has been in general. 
There sometimes seems to be an air of superiority and self righteousness from remembering 60’s weather events first hand. Such memories must be skewed and decayed. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



No - the old memories are clear and crisp and accurate, but I couldn’t tell you where i left my glasses!!!
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
+2
Steve
27 April 2024 15:43:21



A truly awful time to be alive 👎

Originally Posted by: richardabdn 



I wouldn’t say it’s quite that bad ! 😀

Yes, it’s cool, dull and wet for the time of year, but the garden is full of flowers, birds are singing and everything is green and lush. We are also heading in the right direction for summer. Things will get better, don’t worry.
doctormog
27 April 2024 15:47:30

I wouldn’t say it’s quite that bad ! 😀

Yes, it’s cool, dull and wet for the time of year, but the garden is full of flowers, birds are singing and everything is green and lush. We are also heading in the right direction for summer. Things will get better, don’t worry.

Originally Posted by: Steve 



Yes, it’s grim today: 😎https://www.seacroftmarine.com/webcams/east-webcam/  
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
Retron
27 April 2024 17:28:47
A massive battle of the models here tomorrow and one is going to be badly wrong - but which? GFS, I suspect, but we'll see.

On the top, the 12z GFS for Leysdown. On the bottom, the UKV (via MetO)... just a 5C difference at 2PM!
https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/compare.jpg 


UserPostedImage
Leysdown, north Kent
ozone_aurora
27 April 2024 19:42:34

In 1979 England had snow falling somewhere every day during the first week of May.
There have been many far worse periods of cold and wet but the longer it goes on the more dramatic is the sudden change that inevitably follows.
https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2016/04/27/snow-in-late-april-more-common-than-you-may-think/ 

Originally Posted by: four 


Yes, I remembered that very clearly.

Woke up one morning near Lincoln in early May 1979 and looked outside just after sunrise - it was really a winter wonderland, with blue skies and heavy covering of snow on trees, buildings and garden; I think it was at least 3 inches deep! However, the snow had almost gone by late afternoon.

Yes, 1979 had a very unsettled and cold Spring, following a bitter cold, snowy winter. The summer I seem to remember was a mixed bag - a rather poor, often slack, westerly type June with frequent showers, quite a good July though, with plenty of fine, dry weather, but a rubbish August that was mostly unsettled with westerlies, with a notable Fastnet Storm gales.

September, however, was a very nice, dry month with plenty of sunshine.
sunny coast
27 April 2024 20:47:27
Cool dull and wet although April rainfall hasn't been top far from average 
Despite the persistent coolness the feature that stands out is the lack of frost this past 2 months . Nature is a couple or more weeks ahead of normal around here. 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
28 April 2024 07:30:39
WX temps show springlike weather (defined by the 14C day-night isotherm) moving to NW Europe from both south and east; Britain is getting milder but the isotherm doesn't cross the Channel. Continuing rather cold in far N of Russia, very warm E of the Caspian, and parts of the Med also warming up. In week 1 rain from the Atlantic across Britain, France, and patchily on to Turkey. In week 2, wet mostly over mountainous areas, but much drier for S Britain.

GFS Op - Current LP circulating around Britain next week (today, N Sea; Mon, Shetland; Tue, Ireland; Thu, Cornwall; Sun, Scotland) before finally filling and disappearing into the mix near Iceland. Unlike previous forecasts, this LP does not move south and settle over France. From Mon 6th HP develops over N France (1025mb by Wed 8th) with W/SW winds from well south and although this weakens Sun 12th with LP near Scotland, it's back 1030mb Wales Tue 14th.

ECM - The LP circulates as above but at the end of the week it moves SE to Italy not NW to Iceland. HP nevertheless develops over N France Mon 6th 1025mb as above but shows a tendency to move NW to the Atlantic by Wed 8th.

GEFS - temps soon rising to norm, or a few degrees above in Scotland, then mean staying near norm though op and control warmer in the S around Sat 11th. After this weekend's rain has gone, more for the S around Thu 2nd  but relatively little thereafter; rain persistent in the NW; fairly dry in the NE throughout.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
UncleAlbert
28 April 2024 12:53:30
GFS 0600z gives a small bit quite vigorous low moving across the UK from the SW on bank holiday Sunday.  This flies against optimistic hints on the BBC week ahead forecast this lunch time.  Fortunately, it is an outlier at that point!

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