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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
11 June 2024 07:02:41
WX temp charts continuing to show a recovery in NW Europe from the current low point. Still cool in week 1 from N Spain to Scandinavia but in week 2 looking like average as far N as the Channel and across to the Baltic; milder for England and Scotland but not high summer. A large mass of much warmer air working its way westwards as far as Poland by then. Rain still quite general across Europe except Spain and the Med, focused on France and points to the east or north-east in weeks 1 & 2 respectively.

GFS Op -Current LP no longer significant but new arrival 990mb Donegal Thu 13th, broadening out but moving away N-wards by Tue 18th while shallow LP over France slips into S England. A rise of pressure from the SW creates a ridge across Britain by Sat 22nd (SW-lies in Scotland, NE-lies along the Channel). Areas of  LP and HP both aligned N-S alternate in the week following.

ECM - similar to GFS until Tue 18th but the shallow LP from France becomes deeper and moves to Norway 990mb Thu 20th with the return of the N-lies for the E coast (again!)before a zonal W-ly pattern establishes.

GEM - closer to GFS this morning, but the ridge created by the rise of Pressure Sat 22nd reaches no further than the N Sea coast

GEFS - cool now, rising to norm around Mon 17th, becoming warmer from Sun 23rd, all with moderately good ens agreement. Rain quite likely at any time in irregular amounts; heavier in the west though dry at first there
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
White Meadows
11 June 2024 07:52:48
Another ‘summer’ day another Retro(n) top temp of 15 degrees on the partly sunny south coast. Dare we dream of breaching the big two-zero degrees C this month at all? As the rest of the northern hemisphere burns to a crisp we sit in the fridge for the foreseeable. 
 
The Beast from the East
11 June 2024 07:58:52

Another ‘summer’ day another Retro(n) top temp of 15 degrees on the partly sunny south coast. Dare we dream of breaching the big two-zero degrees C this month at all? As the rest of the northern hemisphere burns to a crisp we sit in the fridge for the foreseeable. 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



I love it! Long may it continue! No doubt later in the summer you will get your wish of extreme heat, so lets enjoy the pleasant weather for now!
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
11 June 2024 10:01:40
Chart of the day probably the ECM ensembles SLP. By the 24th a mean of 1020hpa (plenty go higher). Certainly no guarantees but better than nothing. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=23&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
11 June 2024 10:29:03

Chart of the day probably the ECM ensembles SLP. By the 24th a mean of 1020hpa (plenty go higher). Certainly no guarantees but better than nothing. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=23&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



But how reliable it is?  We due to see 20's this weeks but instead all cold low to mid teen temps for next 10 days due to back tracking to average temperatures.  When it kept back tracking it mean the models are extremely unreliable and worst then in the past.  There was some backtracking in the very past but not last weeks or months of back tracking it, just few days then stick to it.  At that rate I would not see 20C here until I go to Philippines on 25th June to 2nd July and possible seeing same low temperatures in early July if they kept back tracking.   
Ally Pally Snowman
11 June 2024 10:39:39

But how reliable it is?  We due to see 20's this weeks but instead all cold low to mid teen temps for next 10 days due to back tracking to average temperatures.  When it kept back tracking it mean the models are extremely unreliable and worst then in the past.  There was some backtracking in the very past but not last weeks or months of back tracking it, just few days then stick to it.  At that rate I would not see 20C here until I go to Philippines on 25th June to 2nd July and possible seeing same low temperatures in early July if they kept back tracking.   

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



It wouldn't surprise me if the unsettled cool weather continues until July as the ensembles still have plenty of rubbish in them.  Latest GFS Op 6z being an example. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
11 June 2024 10:48:52

It wouldn't surprise me if the unsettled cool weather continues until July as the ensembles still have plenty of rubbish in them.  Latest GFS Op 6z being an example. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Saw that as well right to my trip date so for now to survive this nasty cold June is using my conservatory to keep me warm at corrected warm indoor temps.  I having my garden make over on 16th Sept, not my choice but the workers available so i think is a right timing to do it than in the summer that likely be void this year.
White Meadows
11 June 2024 10:53:45

Chart of the day probably the ECM ensembles SLP. By the 24th a mean of 1020hpa (plenty go higher). Certainly no guarantees but better than nothing. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=23&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



that’s all well and good Ally but sadly the temps and precipitation more akin to standard October fayre:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=202&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

could be on a record breaking cool and miserable Summer Solstice. Then further HLB spiking the long daylight hours into July. 
Ally Pally Snowman
11 June 2024 12:35:59

that’s all well and good Ally but sadly the temps and precipitation more akin to standard October fayre:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=202&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

could be on a record breaking cool and miserable Summer Solstice. Then further HLB spiking the long daylight hours into July. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



I do get your point, there's certainly no heatwave in sight. But I do find those 2m temp charts tend to be 2c to 4c below actual temps. And the pp chart often look wet as there are 50 ensembles and some will always produce rain. My punt is 50/50 for an significant improvement by the 24th.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
11 June 2024 12:46:21
6z continues the general theme of low after low after low, interspersed with only brief ridging over the UK. 

Totally impossible to plan any events or days out with any shred of confidence, even 2/3 days out.

It's right at the end of FI before anything remotely stable-looking appears (and we all know reliable the end of FI is!!)

It's not even 'typical' HLB. I mean, pressure's low over Greenland/Iceland/Norway for most of the run. What I do see is every time the PV looks like being scattered to the four winds, it re-gathers itself and sends a lobe spinning over the North Atlantic.

 

Martin
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Aneurin Bevan
+1
Retron
11 June 2024 13:07:51

What I do see is every time the PV looks like being scattered to the four winds, it re-gathers itself and sends a lobe spinning over the North Atlantic.
 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


This might interest you - few look at it in the summer, but it shows the negative zonal flow is weaker than normal for summer, and in the next few days is likely to brush the 10th percentile in terms of strength.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202406100000 

(It being summer means the PV as we know it doesn't really exist, it's a permanent SSW if you like! You can see how the negative zonal flow weakens as summer progresses, ready to spin up again in the autumn.)
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
White Meadows
11 June 2024 13:28:21
Are we finally seeing the death of the polar vortex touted by Met office which was due to take place late winter/ early spring?!
Ally Pally Snowman
11 June 2024 17:35:13
Absolutely horrific 12s. 😢 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
11 June 2024 17:42:50
I note the new MetO model is keen on some unseasonally strong winds on Saturday - we might get into the 30s in terms of gusts in the typical "Euro monsoon", but getting into the 40s in summer is much less common.

GFS has mid 30s at the same time, and as we saw time and again during winter, GFS tends to overestimate gusts... by a good 10mph or more.

Seeing the MetO output have much higher wind gusts makes me raise an eyebrow... I'll be keeping a close eye on this one, as high winds are my least favourite weather. 40+ gusts with the trees in full leaf will be "interesting", put it that way!

Screengrab from the MetO site for reference - I'll post an update, assuming I remember, on Saturday.

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/wind.jpg 

EDIT: Looks like this is going to be a fascinating test of the new model! The older UKV output, seen on the "current forecast" version of the MetO site, has localised highs in the mid to high 30s, with high 20s, low 30s more generally.

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Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Retron
11 June 2024 17:46:58
Here's the "current model" version of the above screenshot - a massive difference to how it'll appear on the ground, a windy day versus a remarkably windy day.

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/wind2.jpg 

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Leysdown, north Kent
cultman1
11 June 2024 18:50:22
winds of this intensity for this time of the year is really scary. Are we in for a sustained autumnal onsluaght over the next 2 weeks or so?
johncs2016
11 June 2024 19:06:05

winds of this intensity for this time of the year is really scary. Are we in for a sustained autumnal onsluaght over the next 2 weeks or so?

Originally Posted by: cultman1 



We've even had named storms during the summer in recent years, so could we end up with one in the near future?

If so, the next storm on the list if that is officially named by either the UK Met Office, Met Eireann or the Dutch Met service would be Storm Lilian.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
White Meadows
11 June 2024 19:12:28

Here's the "current model" version of the above screenshot - a massive difference to how it'll appear on the ground, a windy day versus a remarkably windy day.

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/wind2.jpg 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

About 5mph or so 🤷‍♂️ 
Zubzero
11 June 2024 19:20:14
Summer version of zonal crud. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0 

I wont post the latter stages of the GFS, I fear it would be to horrific for hot weather fans. 
White Meadows
11 June 2024 21:39:55
ECM about as bad as it gets for a Uk summer. A large, often deep area of low pressure with stalling fronts. High winds and persistent showers particularly for the north. Any real hint of heat bottled up over the Balearics. 
The question is, how much longer can this sh**fest last?
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