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The Beast from the East
03 August 2018 18:37:42

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0


LOL ECM at it now


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Brian Gaze
03 August 2018 18:40:53


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0


Still looks warm in the SE on Thursday, but those liking the 30 stuff should enjoy the next few days as Darren says. I don't think they will return till next year


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Possibly but in 2016 34C was reached in mid September IIRC. Personally I'd sooner see a cold and wet September despite being a heat lover.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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LeedsLad123
03 August 2018 18:50:30
GFS shows maxes of 11C-13C on Friday next week for much of England! Seems absurd and unbelievable.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Justin W
03 August 2018 18:59:50


 


Possibly but in 2016 34C was reached in mid September IIRC. Personally I'd sooner see a cold and wet September despite being a heat lover.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


September is my favourite month as summer fades to autumn. Dry and pleasantly warm with chilly nights through till late October would suit me fine.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Arcus
03 August 2018 19:11:07


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0


LOL ECM at it now


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Possibly RIRO - fun to see the 00zs though.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
White Meadows
03 August 2018 22:07:30
The hope casting Autumn watchers really can’t hack it this weekend.
Just look at the improvement on the 12z ensembles- more heat to come late August?
Retron
04 August 2018 03:44:47

The hope casting Autumn watchers really can’t hack it this weekend.
Just look at the improvement on the 12z ensembles- more heat to come late August?

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


It amuses me that posting what the models say winds some people up so much! The GEFS and EPS both show a marked dip next week, recovering to average or rather warm conditions. Hot conditions (as in 6C or more above average, as per the Met Office) are shown as a 10% chance on the GEFS and a 5% chance on EPS.


Or, in other words, the hopecasters actually are those saying things the ensembles simply don't show.

Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
04 August 2018 06:21:24

Not looking bad in the south next week.



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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sunnyramsgate
04 August 2018 06:39:43
Not looking cold in the lakes which is good.
marco 79
04 August 2018 07:09:27
00z GFS op keeps giving....ridging is stronger...temps picking up in the South by next weekend to high 20'a after a minor blip...
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
xioni2
04 August 2018 07:22:26


No, it really isn't. Thankfully, as a heat-hater, I can say with 100% certainty that after mid-August the quality of the heat changes, as you no longer have that searing effect from the sun. That, to me at least, makes a massive difference in terms of the perception of heat.


It's the same way that at the end of February, even if it's -3C outside, you can feel the wamrth starting to come from the sun (as opposed to say mid-December, when it's just a yellow thing in the sky).


Assuming everything else was equal (cloud amounts, dewpoint, wind), I'd far rather have 33C in late August than 33C in early July, for example. And as I've said, that's because a) the sun's rays are shining from a noticeably lower angle and b) the day is over two hours  shorter.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


This is right of course, but it applies more to indoor conditions as all things equal there is much more solar radiation in June/July, which heats up buildings more.

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
04 August 2018 07:24:27

00z GFS op keeps giving....ridging is stronger...temps picking up in the South by next weekend to high 20'a after a minor blip...

Originally Posted by: marco 79 


At least that nasty little East Anglian low for next Friday has gone, hopefully the models won't try playing with that idea again. Gone from ECM too.

Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
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Retron
04 August 2018 09:22:19

Unsurprising, really, the GFS was at the top of its ensembles this morning. The overall story remains a marked cool-down on Wednesday, followed by temperatures not far from average. EPS agrees, too, knocking things down half a degree or so from its 12z output. It also shows mean maxima close to average after next week's cooler interlude.

The chance of hot conditions after Wednesday (ie 29 or higher for London) is around 3% on GEFS this morning, with EPS showing around a 5% chance.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=0&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1


https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperature


 

Leysdown, north Kent
The Beast from the East
04 August 2018 09:44:40



The chance of hot conditions after Wednesday (ie 29 or higher for London) is around 3% on GEFS this morning, with EPS showing around a 5% chance. 


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Indeed. Its coming to an end but its had a good run. Classic cold winters also gradually ease and so do hot summers


Its a shame we couldn't get to 100 as it would have been possible this year. 


Now I look ahead to a proper cold winter if this pattern is recurring

"We have some alternative facts for you"
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danm
  • danm
  • Advanced Member
04 August 2018 10:53:31
Whilst we are definitely on for a cool down to near average temperatures, it is still very premature to be writing off the chance of hotter weather returning at some point.

It’s not as if we’re seeing a southerly tracking jet and an unsettled pattern that will be locked in for a few weeks. What we are likely to see is a N/S split developing with sunny spells and the low to possibly mid 20s in the south, and more unsettled, cooler weather further north.

It wouldn’t take too much of an adjustment in the coming days to see warmer weather ridge up again from the south.

We’ve seen ensemble suites flip before.
Home: London (NE)
Work: London (Central)
White Meadows
04 August 2018 12:00:37
Very amusing to see certain members write off the rest of summer from Wednesday. It will only be the 8th August!
Weathermac
04 August 2018 12:06:39

Very amusing to see certain members write off the rest of summer from Wednesday. It will only be the 8th August!

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Some of those members wrote summer off in may 😛😛

Retron
04 August 2018 12:27:58

Very amusing to see certain members write off the rest of summer from Wednesday. It will only be the 8th August!

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Very amusing to see some members clinging to the odd outlier, too. Still, you might just win that 3% or 5% jackpot if you wish hard enough!


(Seriously, if it were winter and the models were showing a generally average outlook, the odd run or two showing a deep freeze might raise an eyebrow, but no more than that.)


 


 


 


 

Leysdown, north Kent
Sevendust
04 August 2018 12:42:38


 


Very amusing to see some members clinging to the odd outlier, too. Still, you might just win that 3% or 5% jackpot if you wish hard enough!


(Seriously, if it were winter and the models were showing a generally average outlook, the odd run or two showing a deep freeze might raise an eyebrow, but no more than that.)


Originally Posted by: Retron 


It's been an incredible summer for heat and I think(as happens in cold winters) people get a tad over-enthusiastic(spoiled) and assume it will carry on, even in the face of ensemble evidence to contrary.


A return to more normal weather is obvious next week. As ever though it never pays to go more than a week ahead in this country ;)

KevBrads1
04 August 2018 12:47:07

Next week looks pretty dry away from the NW with that GFS 06z run.


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White Meadows
04 August 2018 13:10:06


 


Very amusing to see some members clinging to the odd outlier, too. Still, you might just win that 3% or 5% jackpot if you wish hard enough!


(Seriously, if it were winter and the models were showing a generally average outlook, the odd run or two showing a deep freeze might raise an eyebrow, but no more than that.)


 


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 

Summer certainly is not written off, however.

danm
  • danm
  • Advanced Member
04 August 2018 13:28:52


 


Very amusing to see some members clinging to the odd outlier, too. Still, you might just win that 3% or 5% jackpot if you wish hard enough!


(Seriously, if it were winter and the models were showing a generally average outlook, the odd run or two showing a deep freeze might raise an eyebrow, but no more than that.)


 


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Yes, but we all know how things can change - including the ensembles. We aren’t a million miles from a more pronounced ridging of the Azores high. It’s only the 3rd of August and a lot can happen over the next month.

Home: London (NE)
Work: London (Central)
The Beast from the East
04 August 2018 13:32:45


 


Yes, but we all know how things can change - including the ensembles. We aren’t a million miles from a more pronounced ridging of the Azores high. It’s only the 3rd of August and a lot can happen over the next month.


Originally Posted by: danm 


I think it will get warmer again for the last 10 days of August, but not up to 90F again


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
danm
  • danm
  • Advanced Member
04 August 2018 13:58:20


 


I think it will get warmer again for the last 10 days of August, but not up to 90F again


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


Maybe, maybe not. Time will tell. 

Home: London (NE)
Work: London (Central)
doctormog
04 August 2018 14:32:04
Surely this thread is to discuss what the models currently show and not people’s hunches or what the summer has been like so far? I think Darren’s analysis is pretty spot on as things stand currently. All we can do is watch and see how or if the output changes.
Aberdeen
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