Well, not really, he is just predicting a more mixed type of weather , more Atlantic influence rather than the continental which has been around since March so spells of warm weather will occur but not to the same degree as earlier.    Is he right? Who knows?

 

 

And Hammond, just like the many hopecasters on here, has no real idea.

 Well i think he has some idea . Yes August-Sept can be Hot, but August can be very wet and Autumnal like ,same for September. At the moment a more mixed type of weather is the form horse but it all might change.

 

 

 

Why the continued obsession on here about what John Hammond forecast?  Forecasters often get it wrong but surely that should go in the media thread!  It’s inevitable that threads will go off track occasionally and you’d expect that,  but this one is heading a long way from model output discussion and should perhaps be re-named ‘the John Hammond forecast’ thread!  

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For some reason Hammond has acquired a reputation for being a cool and unsettled hopecaster, just as Darren Bett has one for mild ramping in winter. I make no further comment on that!

Meanwhile the models remain reasonably warm with the risk of hotter weather never too far away from the south. Some slackness in the pattern would suggest some better rain and thunder possibilities so in a normal summer( which many have forgotten what that is!) I would willingly take what's on offer 

Still no change this morning, really - today is, at long last, the end of the heatwave. The models have handled this very well, I feel, especially EPS (which clocked on to the idea a day or so ahead of GEFS). Both suites, however, have stuck doggedly to it once they latched on.

The mid-term outlook remains the same, that of near average temperatures with a chance of rather warm conditions at times. The GEFS this morning is, if anything, fractionally cooler in the longer term than yesterday's output. EPS, meanwhile, shows a similar picture, just as it has done for days. The chance of a return to hot weather (as in highs of 6C above average) remains in the low single-figures percentage-wise. And no, before certain people say anything that's not hopecasting - merely what the models have, and continue, to show.

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Well I for one say good riddance to the hot weather and lack of rain. Thoroughly sick to death of it.

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IMHO, for here in the far SE, a good wet day (or more) would be the best, not the worst.

And that's from someone who doesn't normally like rain at all, but I think we really need some.

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Seem you can;'t cope with it even if only once or twice a life time to see those set-up and it been so good and glad it happening this year.   Ensembles look good as it warming up and settling down after the weekend with low to mid 20's.  Some members want to go to over 15C so hope to see more trends.

Farmers can`t cope, crops can`t cope, our house can`t cope (being built on shrinking clay subsoil), and still you are looking forward to it warming up and settling down again. What a ridiculous attitude!

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IMO we’re looking at a more traditional summer pattern for what’s left of the season, the further SE you are the drier and warmer it will be. To be honest I’m fed up of the humid sleepless nights now so something more akin to a U.K. summer would be most welcomed now. 🙂

This country can't cope with anything, can it? Any kind of weather that deviates even slightly from the norm and the entire nation is in meltdown mode.

It's pathetic. We have had 2 months of warm, dry weather out of many more months of crap - I think we'll survive, unless I'm in an alternate reality where 1976 and 1995 never happened.

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Gfs op quite keen to resume the azores /Scandinavian link ....albeit in the unreliable....ecm keeps it rather flat up to day 10...

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Nothing wrong with hoping the weather gets hot again, and there is some output which keeps this option on the table.
The country can cope, and will cope. It’s the typical British negative attitude that says we can’t. If things were that bad it would be plastered all over the news. It isn’t. It’s so tiresome being made to feel guilty for wanting summer type weather in, errrm, summer!

Not pathetic at all - a one-in-20-year event is bound to have effects, not least because it's so unusual. Around here, for example, there were stories of new-build houses cracking up as subsidence set in in 1995. (I suspect they'd cheaped out on the foundations). 1995 was a hellish summer for me because of the heat, I fell into a pattern of 3 sleepless, sweaty, sticky nights, then one deep sleep due to sheer exhaustion.

These days of course I'm an adult and can afford things like A/C. Indeed, two of the four people in my office have bought A/C units this summer, a third only hasn't as she lives with her parents and has no room for one. The fourth guy is one of those people who seems immune to heat.

We could prepare better - mandate A/C in all houses down here, enforce stricter controls on road and rail construction, station fleets of snowploughts in all villages - but it's not worth the money.

Meanwhile back to the models: the EPS has a token hot run, but it retains means in the 21-23C range for London, basically average as has been the case for several days' worth of runs now.

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperature

 

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I don't want the rest of the summer to be a washout, but a return to average conditions with wet and dry spells would be welcome. The local farmers are really struggling, winter feed is being used to sustain cattle and sheep, plus the recent sowings have yet to germinate. The local wheat crop does not look too bad, since they have been harvesting the grain from wheat sown in the winter, which benefited from precipitation earlier in the year, but market gardening is on its knees. Plus, my wife complains incessantly about the garden and her dying plants

We need sunshine and rain and average temperatures for the next few weeks and judging from the GFS 6z, it looks like that is what is on offer for the next couple of weeks after Friday.

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UK in a nutshell.. cut costs, end up with cheap shoddy results. That's part of my point - we make things worse for ourselves.

 

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Well, the weather hasn`t deviated "slightly" from the norm, it`s been I think, the hottest summer since 1976, over two months of heat and lack of rain ( and more warm/hot weather is forecast after the upcoming blip.)

The farmers are already using winter silage to feed their cattle, how will they manage when winter arrives?

I think after a long hot summer we should be satisfied, and looking forward to Autumn, lower temperatures, and yes-some much needed rain.

To hope that this heatwave continues  into September and October is a bit of an odd attitude in my opinion.

Perhaps you shouldn`t be living in a county with a temperate climate if all you desire is heat and dry weather!

But just to cheer you up, the Met Office 30 day outlook is for more warm/hot dry weather.

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Thursday's developing system getting very close to drenching the SE, at the moment only Kent. One to watch. Would be a spectacular way to end the summer 2018

 

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This whole thread is now just a constant battle between those who love heat and those who hate it or those who have had enough of it. I personally would love to return to warm and settled conditions towards the end of next week. We only live through a few of these summers in our life time and I would like it to continue a few weeks longer. The last few weeks haven't been extraordinary here anyway overall and we are due a decent amount of rainfall towards the end of the week and at least into next week so it's not exactly desert conditions.

What will happen will happen though so at the end of it all, it won't make one bit of difference what people wish for.

From this thread, I haven't really got a clue what is going to happen next week after the weekend rain because it's all just wishing and whining!

I wonder if this summer is so exceptional or in these days of runaway GW just a sign of the new norm? Weather patterns are changing and becoming more extreme, there's no getting away from that fact.

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What's going on here?  30C not out of the question by Sunday?

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Well, if you read my posts you'd know!

(As a recap: average is the form horse, maybe rather warm in the south. No real sign of any heatwaves.)

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Looks like relief is in sight. After what has been the best summer I can remember.

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https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/06_12_preciptype.png?cb=341

A period of fresher slightly wetter weather looks odds on. 

 

The latest FAX for Sunday shows the centre of low pressure a little further north and west than previously predicted. Consequently the SE and EA are kept in the warm sector of the depression for longer, indeed there is also a greater element of warm air being advected from the south, helping to boost temperatures.

This morning's main models continue to show that after this weekend, the Azores high re-establishes from the SW. ECM 0Z is a little more reluctant to push this further northwards by T+240, but the latest run from GFS shows a full on Azores high in command well before then. As mentioned the latest METO 30 day suggests warmer and drier conditions for the rest of August.

Clearly, as suggested in this morning's model output, summer 2018 isn't over yet.

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The beast is back

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204&carte=1

Perhahs SK is right