And so the slow backtrack on cooler and unsettled weather gathers pace.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 

Well, the weather hasn`t deviated "slightly" from the norm, it`s been I think, the hottest summer since 1976, over two months of heat and lack of rain ( and more warm/hot weather is forecast after the upcoming blip.)

The farmers are already using winter silage to feed their cattle, how will they manage when winter arrives?

I think after a long hot summer we should be satisfied, and looking forward to Autumn, lower temperatures, and yes-some much needed rain.

To hope that this heatwave continues  into September and October is a bit of an odd attitude in my opinion.

Perhaps you shouldn`t be living in a county with a temperate climate if all you desire is heat and dry weather!

But just to cheer you up, the Met Office 30 day outlook is for more warm/hot dry weather.

Originally Posted by: bradders 

The cooler unsettled conditions were really only for today(N)/tomorrow(S) through to the weekend. After then things were more uncertain. Next week could potentially be much warmer (in the south at least) and less unsettled after the weekend. (Lower probabilities would be for it to be hot or very cool).

Based on experience I would not lend too much weight to any individual 06z GFS op run. If the 12z op run and ensembles are very warm and settled I would take note. 

Perhaps the 06z GFS op run will be right, after the summer we have had it wouldn’t surprise me but it is best to “watch this space”.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Thursday's developing system getting very close to drenching the SE, at the moment only Kent. One to watch. Would be a spectacular way to end the summer 2018

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Thursday's developing system getting very close to drenching the SE, at the moment only Kent. One to watch. Would be a spectacular way to end the summer 2018

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

10/11 day's time could potentially give some of the highest temps of the summer...Saturday next 2m Max temps widely across England up to 30c...allowing the GFS undercook

Originally Posted by: marco 79 

It's not just the 06z GFS op run though. The METO long rang suggests more settled conditions for the north of the UK, with perhaps thundery showers in the south, but with the whole country with well above average temperatures. This would suggest the high may migrate a little further north and east, setting up camp either over Scotland or the North Sea.

This would lead to the potential of the highest temperatures of the summer being recorded in the last ten days of August, going into the beginning of September.

Latest forecast from the Met Office:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 21 Aug 2018 to Tuesday 4 Sep 2018:

Through the remainder of August generally settled conditions will probably continue for many, although with a risk of more generally changeable conditions at times. The drier conditions may become focussed over the northern half of the UK, whilst the south may have showers or thunderstorms at times. By early September there are signs that the weather pattern becomes increasingly slow moving, with settled conditions possibly becoming more widespread across the UK. Temperatures are likely to be above normal, and perhaps well above normal into the start of September.

Updated: 01:03 on Tue 7 Aug 2018 BST

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

A bit over dramatic. Thursday is the 9th August and we are currently only in the second full week of summer school holidays. Also there now seems to be an increasing likelihood of a return to warm/very warm and fine weather for the southern half of the uk at least. If it is even mid 20's over substantial parts of the uk with plenty of sunshine do we really think people would have considered summer over this Thursday?

Originally Posted by: Bellevarde 

I was commenting on the current model output rather than anyone’s forecast and you seem to also have extrapolated a lot from the forecast.

Being the model output thread which model output contradicts what I wrote? The Met Offic extended outlook looks good for anticyclonic conditions to dominate but even then it’s a big jump to suggest the hottest weather of the summer will be at the end of August and into autumn.

I am not saying what will or will not happen just discussing current NWP output. 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

It is a big jump. But as with the rest of this summer, anything can happen, and has happened before (2nd September 1906 Bawtry-Hesley Hall 35.6C, 13th September 2016 Gravesend 34.4C).

Agreed though, the next GFS 12z will be important.

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

Have a look at the calendar - it's August. Early August, at that. That means its still, shock horror, summer. It's not autumn yet. Autumnal rain and wind can wait. This is the UK, not Spain or California - we don't get years of drought, we get a few months, if that. It would not surprise me at all if autumn and winter were very wet, as they were after the summer of 1976. I bet by January 1977 anyone visiting the UK would scarcely believe there had ever been a drought at all. 

Seriously, we can get months and months of cloudy wet weather in the UK - so forgive me for wanting to make the most of what we currently have before it is inevitably taken away. Luckily for you we probably won't get another summer like this for another 20-odd years.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

Of course it wouldn't be an end to summer as it would occur around the very date THE HOTTEST EVER UK TEMPERATURE was set. 

Those who think summer ends on 9/10 August need to buy a calendar and, perhaps, several books on British climatology. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 

Why the continued obsession on here about what John Hammond forecast?  Forecasters often get it wrong but surely that should go in the media thread!  It’s inevitable that threads will go off track occasionally and you’d expect that,  but this one is heading a long way from model output discussion and should perhaps be re-named ‘the John Hammond forecast’ thread!  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

GEFS 06z firming up on a warmer and drier outlook at least in the south. Could change back of course.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Beast has been predicting the end of Summer since 1st June

Originally Posted by: Weathermac 

 Yes i agree there should be a dedicated thread for John Hammond. Probably Albert Hammond as well.

Originally Posted by: bledur 

Laurens Hammond is also a key figure

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laurens_Hammond

Originally Posted by: Downpour