What a turn-around!

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GFS finishes with -12s sneaking into the SE and the high pressure looking like stretching up to the northwest to open up more cold from the north. I'll take that evolution (even if I still think the models, and especially GFS) haven't got to grips with things yet.

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If the GFS 12z evolved that way, no complaints from me 

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Decent Gfs that's for sure a bit of snow as well day 8 

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Lets hope they've fixed the GFSP at the same time

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Some snow on the GFS in FI- I wonder where we’ve heard that before this winter ?

There’s some forecast here for tomorrow 

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I hope your snow shovel is ready! 

Enjoy 🤗

GEFS have updated already on Meteociel.

Some stellar runs in there with HLB and easterlies. 

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For the first time this winter Im finally starting to get interested in FI. Even if it doesnt come off, there has been some severe cold knocking around with some degree of consistency that comes with a pending cold spell.

I think we are finally seeing SSW impact.... finally.

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I think I may need a snow teaspoon at best 

It will be very interesting to see what the ECM run shows in the midterm section of the run this evening. Consistent with the 00z or not? I’m not sure what to expect.

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GEFS12z are more mixed than I was expecting.  

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For London they are the least cold set for some time, to my eye. The op was one of the coldest options at the end. Snow row total is 83 so only slightly down on the 6Z, though.

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Looking at the ensemble mean precipitation line, it's striking how dry it's forecast to continue to be (at least in SE England). It looks like we can expect only another 10 mm or so by the end of the month, which would surely make this one of the driest Januaries on record.

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Op is sniffing out the HLB hopefully.....I would presume those ens will fall with the next few runs....eyes to Ecm.....

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I think we are all in the same boat, who knows what will be shown. If only for some cross model agreement- and as you say even model run to run agreement. It’s chaos

Well best GFS Op run for some time but you can't really take much notice of it as it is a big outlier and the latter part of the run has a spread of 16C so most of that can be ignored.

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The ECM 12z seems quite consistent with the 00z run so far.

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angle of low is interesting 

Yes ECM is slowly evolving a little consistency so far

Ecm 12z looks like it will spoil us again and going to be a cracker of a run this.

ECM, stunning T+168 and 192 charts,  That is what we want to see 

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..in your last 16 posts? 🤣

on a serious note, the gold always seems to stay at the end of the rainbow. Let’s see if ECM continues its pantomime ‘mild easterly’ from previous runs...

Yep, as I mentioned yesterday, that angle of WAA with the low coming out of Canada at T+144 is again favourable on ECM. Plenty of hoops to jump through yet, but encouraging signs for cold weather fans. I wonder if the MetO will up their "25% chance of easterly next week" tomorrow?

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T+192, classic Easterly, heavy snow showers piling in 

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