I think you're looking at them backwards. The 0Z was the top chart, the 6Z was the bottom one. The means are as follows, from Jan 22 to Jan 27, midnight each day (to nearest whole degree). 

 

0Z ... 6Z

-3 .... -4

-3 .... -3

-2 .... -3

-2 .... -2

-1 .... -2

-1 .... -4

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As things stand this winter is running at 2c above the LTA, which categorises it as being on track to be one of the mildest ever.  The model output needs to deliver some sutained cold to change that story, we are today half way through meteorological winter, and what a mild one it has been so far.

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GFS 06z says were back on for marginal cold spell if snow is what you are after: although it a slight upgrade from the 00z this morning:

 

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2 over par? We'd probably be 2 under if the models had been on the money. It's a fascinating winter IMO. Nature says it's crazily mild but the machines keep telling us it's going to be cold.

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Just for fun:

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/3696/anim_cvg6.gif

 

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Always the way - if the UK existed 240 hours into the future (in NWP terms) we'd have the climate of Newfoundland 

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All that proves is never trust a machine. Which is why AI isn't going to be putting us all out of a job anytime soon, despite the sensationalist claims and scare stories in the tabloid end of the media.

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Does anyone have a link to the ECM weekly temperature anomaly maps (EC46 I think?)

The last ones I saw were very cold, but they were starting on about January 9 as I recall, so presumably have updated by now./ I didn't save the link and can't find the post now.

 

Edit - don't worry, found the page. http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/

 

Initialised a couple of days ago now, but still showing a solid cold signal, with most of the UK 2-3C below average through to February.

Having said that I'm sure they showed the same thing for last week last time round!

 

Also note the dry and cold anomalies over Norway, suggesting a Scandi block setup.

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Halfway down this page under 'Líkan: ec-ens'

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/spakort/

 

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Week 3 - looks so blocked and cold: - This continues into week 4 - You can see where the HP/block is!?

Many parts of the COuntry or all of country is going down between 2 and 3c below average from 28th Jan.

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I suspect the weather will catch up with machine expectations sometime between June and August. 

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I don't know what this means....    0Z was awful, 6Z was mediocre?

 

https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7900/32889217418_59e363130d_o.png " alt="" width="450" height="228" />

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Can anyone see my chart?

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Here.

 

Click for full size: https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7900/32889217418_59e363130d_o.png

 

Basically the 0Z was a big departure from recent runs and the 6Z goes back to more or less where they were before, barring a few better ones.

 

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Odd it doesn't appear on my post.  Thank you.

 

And yes, the norm appears to be about 60 or just above for Brighton, With the odd spike and trough.

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Hoping to see a greater propensity for hlb's and a -AO this afternoon although not sure what the gfs will churn out. I am optimistic however of perhaps a repeat performance from the ecm 12z run of yesterday.
I have noticed the charts showing the down welling -u winds have this pinned back to the 28th now and not as negative as previously shown. They were originally progged for the 22nd. Just like the AO and NAO I suppose they are related to model runs.

ICON has come out and it is

All is flat. Write off for cold spell 24 Jan time frame.

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Nope. The entire post of yours that I quoted didn't mention 0z

"GEFS now out for the 06Z and have trended a fair bit colder in the mid term for London, Jan 22-27, with the colder cluster predominating now. Control run is fairly frigid."

Yes they are better than the 0z. I thought you meant the 06z was trending lower for the period quoted not compared to the 0z. 

-3

-5

-4

-2

-3

-4

Trending milder then a colder one at the end I would say, but in the scope of variability I would say remaining between -1 and -5C

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If ICON was showing cold would you consider it meant a cold spell was nailed on?  

 

ARPEGE giving a decent blob of snow for me still. And only 108hrs out. (There's also some light snow for me at 66hrs)

 

GFS also gradually ramping up Friday night snow for the south, run by run. Worth keeping an eye on...

 

Chilterns could see a dusting in two days' time if GFS has this right.

 

 

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Stunning UKMO 144h snowy slider the rollercoaster continues 

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Latest GFS seems to be trending the slider on a more southerly track to my eyes

 

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Yes looks similar to the UKMO.  Good start to the 12s.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2019011612/UW144-21.GIF?16-16 

Latest GFS Op at same time - http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2019011612/gfs-0-144.png?12

Not much point on looking any further down the line ... but I think I will anyway JFF :)

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Well, no idea why ICON has gone skiing off piste - fortunately UKMO and GFS at same timeframe are OK.

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This t+100 to T+144 period still being chewed over like an old bone by the models - until that storm trajectory is resolved the chaos will continue IMO.

The Met's update would indicate they are more confident if the UKMO/GFS 12z kind of evolution though, so we'll just let the 'coaster keep on going...

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