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GFS quickly files its response to the Met Office update.
Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze
No doubt it'll be a case of the GFS giveth, and another model will taketh away!
Originally Posted by: David M Porter
Probably, though as I stated, the GFS op runs have shown this scenario for quite a few days now (since at least Thursday). As expected the ensembles have been much less consistent.
😂😂 Some people never learn.
Surely the time for analysis about winter is when winter is over - and for the record that’s 1st March.
Originally Posted by: nsrobins
Although depending on your age it is possible to say that this will not be a memorably cold winter in terms of length below average temperatures. By the end of the current ensemble timescale it will only be possible for half of the winter to be below average and I have lived through a number of winters where over a half of the time was below average!
Originally Posted by: fairweather
Not that I'm suggesting it's in the slightest likely to happen this winter, but the classic winter of 1947 didn't begin till about 20th January. Of course it helped that it lasted almost till mid-March. So I don't think it's possible to say with absolute certainty that "this will not be a memorably cold winter in terms of length below average temperatures".
Originally Posted by: jhall
So I don't think it's possible to say with absolute certainty that "this will not be a memorably cold winter in terms of length below average temperatures".
Disagree.
WIO around March 23rd this year. We are only 15 days into a 90 day stretch. 😃
Originally Posted by: Whether Idle
Nope, that's 23 days out. It, in weather/climate terms, has nothing to do with the Spring Equinox, which in any event is on 20th March this year due to the Leap Year.
Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White
amazes me how this come up every year, winter meteorologically is over 1st March but we can get wintry weather until May!
Given our thermally lagged maritime climate, nothing will deflect from Winter being over on the Vernal Equinox.
Originally Posted by: tallyho_83
Yes, I have mentioned before that it in my lifetime, long lasting cold spells have never occurred in the second half of the winter months if deep cold has not been around or close to the UK for a while in the first half of the winter. The following charts show this as applied to 1946-7.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1946&maand=12&dag=16&uur=1800&var=2&map=1&model=noaa
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1946&maand=12&dag=20&uur=1800&var=2&map=1&model=noaa
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?uur=1800&var=2&nmaps=24&map=1&model=noaa&jaar=1947&maand=01&dag=06
If this does not put the 'what about '47 argument to bed for this year, I think its at least had its bath, got its pyjamas on with hot night cap ready....... but hey ho, with the weather of course we must never say never!
Oops! Correction.... first link should have been this!!!!
It is possible that if it walks like a duck, quacks and has webbed feet it might turn out to be chicken later on, but, looking at the model output for various time periods, I seriously doubt it.
The chances "this will be a memorably cold winter in terms of length below average temperatures" are pretty much zero. And you can jeer at me on March 1st (or the 21st if you like) if I'm wrong because I'd be delighted to be wrong!!
Anyone with doubts need to keep an eye on the anomaly maps on Climate reanalyser and read up on 'voldermart'. There simply is (and its utterly amazing to be writing this) no cold to tap into - the sheer extent and magnitude of warm anomalies is jaw dropping.
Perhaps the t2m charts rather than anomalies would show whether there is any cold to tap into. There is plenty, just not as cold as the long term average. https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/gfs/ds/gfs_world-ced_t2_1-day.pngWhether we actually tap into any of it this winter is a very different matter.
Originally Posted by: doctormog
absolutely, but let’s not let the facts get in the way hey 🤣
The colours are a bit difficult to interpret but it looks to me like nothing below -10C to our east before you get to the 'pole of cold'. Its quite incredible!
We know NWlies wont cut it for real cold weather, Nlies might be the best bet - but the blob to our S isn't going to relent. And, if I'm wrong, I give you jeering rights too! No, I demand you do
Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER
And I want you to jeer at me to, on March the 1st or 21st too . Ok?
Originally Posted by: UncleAlbert
I get your point... but 2013 would beg to differ
Omg, Andy Woodcock are you available tonight folk here need real help tonight and it’s only 5th Jan.
Originally Posted by: Devonian
Possibly, but in recent years we've seen full throttle northerlies deliver close to average temperatures in areas to the south of London.
I always try to be objective and deal in facts. However, I will make an exception for once and say the ECM t+240 hour chart tonight is one of the most diabolical I can recall seeing. 😂 pic.twitter.com/OsvYyAQl7z— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) January 5, 2020
I always try to be objective and deal in facts. However, I will make an exception for once and say the ECM t+240 hour chart tonight is one of the most diabolical I can recall seeing. 😂 pic.twitter.com/OsvYyAQl7z
Dry, mild and settled seems okay to me. Mild, wet and stormy would be diabolical IMO, but each to their own.
Totally agree there, Michael.
