At the current rate much of Asia will take decades to reach heard immunity. If the stats from China are maintained the end of the universe is likely to be with us before heard immunity is reached. The situation in Asia simply does not tally up with the approach in the UK. As I have repeatedly said I have no medical knowledge and am not saying which is right! 

Agree and am fully aware of my own contributions.  However, I would also suggest people seek professional help if they have real fears and concerns. 

Pleased to see a professional virologist has picked up on this because it is what I have been going on about in recent days.

Jeremy Rossman, Honorary Senior Lecturer in Virology and President of Research-Aid Networks, University of Kent, argues:

A delay strategy when combined with surveillance and containment, as recommended by the WHO, could be very effective in combating the spread of COVID-19.

Yet if we slow the spread of the virus but are relying on herd immunity to protect the most vulnerable people, we would still need 47 million people to be infected.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-school-shutdown-share-markets-sport-events-cancelled-latest-update-news

We all know we are all going to die in a horrible way!!

All markets bar the FTSE 250 have recovered today in the UK, Europe and live trading in the USA after losing billions during the week over coronavirus

I think the UK number of cases is academic, the main numbers unfortunately will be the ICU patients and the number of deaths.

This was the deaths by age bracket up to yesterday in Italy in the Lombardy region. Those between 70 and 89 are the worst affected. 

• 0-9 - No deaths


• 10-19 - No deaths


• 20-29 - No deaths


• 30 to 39 - 1 death (0.1%)


• 40 to 49 - 1 death (0.1%)


• 50-59 - 14 deaths (1.7%)


• 60-69 - 65 deaths (8.1%)


• 70-79 - 274 deaths (34.2%)


• 80-89 - 355 deaths (44.3%)


• 90+ - 75 deaths (9.3%)

Have gone up slightly you mean. I wouldn't class it as a recovery.

I'd be interested to see an analysis in age categories. I suspect the young would downgrade the threat because any teenager thinks that they're immortal anyway; and the (very) old would also downgrade it because (a) they grew up in an era when the number of vaccines was minimal and antibiotics (except sulphonamide, of limited use) were not then developed (b) they've got used to the idea that they haven't many years left.

In the middle you have people with families to raise, businesses to run, experiences to realise etc etc and are justifiably worried about not being able to do these.

I'll see your Senior Lecturer at Kent and raise you a Professor at Oxford in Infection and Immunity. Have a look on BBC news at 17.38 on iPlayer.

• Herd immunity is going to be reached in every country eventually no matter what. The longer it takes to get there, the longer the epidemic lasts.


• All lockdowns do is to delay transmission of the virus once you "emerge" from the lockdown


• Balance needs to be struck between allowing transmission of the virus to reach herd immunity and not completely stopping it so that we just get a big 2nd wave later in the year

Basically your 47million above is going to happen whatever you do in the absence of a vaccine, it's how you get there that that matters.

But if there is a vaccine in 6 months time?

I think they are testing people at home, and those that have died at home

I suspect our Tory govt is going to try and fix the numbers so that people who die at home are not included as they will not be tested

Bozo will pretend everything is going fine with help from the press

One of Scotland's first cases of coronavirus has spoken to the BBC to describe his experience of the illness

"The Covid-19 patient said he wanted to provide reassurance for the majority of people who are expected to make a full recovery. He was diagnosed with Covid-19 about 10 days ago following a trip to Italy and becoming feverish.

The man, in his 50s, was treated in isolation in a Scottish hospital and is now fully recovered. I felt no symptoms. I was completely fine and went to work on the Wednesday and Thursday. Later on the Thursday evening, I started to feel a bit of a flu coming on. I had a mild fever, I felt shivery but the biggest symptom was aches and pains, particularly in my legs. I was feverish - that continued through Thursday night and I didn't sleep too well.

He followed the NHS 24 guidance and called the 111 number for advice. They instructed him to go to hospital on Friday morning where he was tested with nasal and throat swabs. He said: That was returned as a positive test on the Sunday evening (1 March) and I was hospitalised. From that point on I was subject to daily blood tests and throat and nose swabs.

But from this point on, he said his symptoms did not develop any further. He added: By the time I went to hospital, I was feeling fine. The mild flu symptoms quickly dissipated, I had no leg pain, no fever, no cough and no shortness of breath. The patient remained in isolation for eight days and was released on Monday after two consecutive nasal swabs came back negative for Covid-19."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51876080

Seem to be a 3 or 4 day thing for the majority who are healthy etc maybe that's why the advice is 7-day self-isolation

Yes that is the point.

Trial regulations are understandably very strict and take time, I've not heard anyone reputable talking about a vaccine this year.

The point remains valid if a vaccine takes 12 or 18 months.

Isn't it more likely that they're just preparing?  It has the added bonus of taking some pressure off the nursing and medical teams for a while, in readiness for what might follow if the outbreak takes hold amongst the vulnerable groups.

Except that we would be at a different point on the graph with more people having been infected.

I've seen several knowledgable people say a vaccine is realistically a year away, and that assumes what is developed works and is safe. The issue then is how do you gear up production to immunise the numbers involved?

Over 65s in the U.K. total around 12 million. worldwide it's over 600 million. Then add on other vulnerable people; maybe 20 million here and a billion worldwide? 

Then there's the unknown factor of mutation. Don't all Coronaviruses mutate?

Could we’ll be, hench the question. 

Yes they do, although not often favourably for the virus.

I suppose the question for those in a vulnerable group is how can I avoid getting it until a vaccine is available?