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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
07 April 2020 16:34:42


The numbers make absolutely no sense today.



Total people tested: 213181


Daily increase: 4344


But daily increase listed explicitly as 9740


 


So which is it?!


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

That says 9740 people were tested making a cumulative total of 213,181. Are you saying that yesterday’s  cumulative total wasn’t 203,441?


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
The Beast from the East
07 April 2020 16:34:47


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
SJV
07 April 2020 16:36:28


 


Ending the lockdown there now would effectively be culling thousands more lives!  


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Yes I think Beast's love for the economy (ie, his local watering hole) is clouding his judgement somewhat πŸ™„

Gandalf The White
07 April 2020 16:37:05


Fascinating report on the foreign pages of today's Times about how China rather than taking a low profile after its behaviour is aggressively building up its military in the South China Sea. The Pentagon wants an extra $16bn to counter it.


My view has always been that China represents a malign threat to our way of life and should be dealt with as a potential adversary rather than the West's new best mate. The pandemic has merely reinforced that view.


 


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘


 


I have been saying for at least a decade that helping to make China's economy one of the strongest in the world would make them a leading global power. The US has dominated for decades off the back of having the world's most powerful economy and it was inevitable that China would gain the same capabilities. The additional problem is that China is an authoritarian one-party state with an all-powerful leader.


If you look at what China has been doing strategically around the world these past two decades you can see a country with a clear strategy where its long-term interests dictate its actions. Quite a few countries are discovering that Chinese financial and economic aid comes with some nasty strings attached.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


The Beast from the East
07 April 2020 16:38:14

As Xion says, nothing is going to change. We will be arguing about Brexit again by the end of the year


 




"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Whether Idle
07 April 2020 16:38:35


 


Yes I think Beast's love for the economy (ie, his local watering hole) is clouding his judgement somewhat πŸ™„


Originally Posted by: SJV 


Beast needs to download Zoom and crack open beers and commune with his mates and stop posting drivel.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
The Beast from the East
07 April 2020 16:40:45


 


Yes I think Beast's love for the economy (ie, his local watering hole) is clouding his judgement somewhat πŸ™„


Originally Posted by: SJV 


If you suddenly develop a toothache or get an ingrowing toenail, and realise that you cant get it treated, you will change your tune as well


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
07 April 2020 16:40:56

OK Here is the latest JFF model.


Updates: I've gone with the 9740 figure, I've also removed the linear increase in tests up to the end of the month. Its clear this is not ramping up anywhere near this fast. For now I have assumed a roughly constant number of tests in the future of about 11k. When there is more data I will use moving averages to extrapolate future number of tests.


 



With that in mind. Today's daily increase of 3634 is slightly more consistent with the model forecast than yesterday's however remains on the low side. Again this indicates, to me, that the basic parameters may need changing slightly as the model is overestimating the number of confirmed cases slightly. Nevertheless I will wait a bit longer before doing that to see if things get back on track.


A few predictions (again this has not changed in the last few weeks as the same basic parameters are being used).


Total number of cases (constant testing at 11k ish): 99306 (again this has not changed, any variation is only due to the number of tests)


100 confirmed cases crossover point (when we have 'control'): 28th April


Peak in number of confirmed cases (again testing caveat): 5th April (2 days ago)


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Brian Gaze
07 April 2020 16:42:49

Have we got the hospital admission slide today? 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gandalf The White
07 April 2020 16:43:01


 


Brilliant news. They can end the lockdown. We are only a few weeks behind!


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Still adding new cases at a rate of one every 30 seconds. Somehow I don't think that's grounds for ending the lockdown.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


SJV
07 April 2020 16:43:59


 


If you suddenly develop a toothache or get an ingrowing toenail, and realise that you cant get it treated, you will change your tune as well


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Won't happen, I'm f***ing invincible 😎

Gandalf The White
07 April 2020 16:47:02


 


If you suddenly develop a toothache or get an ingrowing toenail, and realise that you cant get it treated, you will change your tune as well


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Was there no room left in your shopping trolley after you'd loaded it with beer for a pack or two of paracetamol?


πŸ˜‰


 


Reminds me of this old advert https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Z023prwCkgs


🀣


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


David M Porter
07 April 2020 16:50:35


 


Still adding new cases at a rate of one every 30 seconds. Somehow I don't think that's grounds for ending the lockdown.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


There is no way they can even think about ending the lockdown or even lifting some of the restrictions until there is a clear and continuing decline in both the number of new cases of COVID-19 and the number of people dying from it.


I don't think we are anywhere close to that stage yet at this moment in time.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gavin D
07 April 2020 16:50:51

Regional breakdown for deaths in England



  • London - 1,706 +224

  • Midlands - 1,196 +142

  • North East & Yorkshire - 700 +88

  • North West - 642 +90

  • East of England - 563 +101

  • South East - 562 +77

  • South West - 286 +36

Gavin D
07 April 2020 16:52:00


Have we got the hospital admission slide today? 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


The Beast from the East
07 April 2020 16:54:13


 


Won't happen, I'm f***ing invincible 😎


Originally Posted by: SJV 


You might be, but if something goes wrong in the house, like the boiler goes or a pipe bursts, you will be on a long waiting list


We cant simply press pause on life for too long


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
07 April 2020 16:56:32


 


Was there no room left in your shopping trolley after you'd loaded it with beer for a pack or two of paracetamol?


πŸ˜‰


 


Reminds me of this old advert https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Z023prwCkgs


🀣


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


There never seems to be any paracetamol, nor hand gel. 


Plenty of beer though. Grateful for that at least


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Bugglesgate
07 April 2020 16:56:35


 


If you suddenly develop a toothache or get an ingrowing toenail, and realise that you cant get it treated, you will change your tune as well


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


Actually, I  HAVE broken a tooth and it's very "niggley".   I'm putting it into perspective though.  Niggley tooth being fixed or consigning a load of people to death


...... um let me think


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
The Beast from the East
07 April 2020 16:59:51


 


 


Actually, I  HAVE broken a tooth and it's very "niggley".   I'm putting it into perspective though.  Niggley tooth being fixed or consigning a load of people to death


...... um let me think


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


You are not symptomatic though? Why would you think you are a danger? Its been weeks since the lockdown


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
07 April 2020 17:00:00


πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘


I have been saying for at least a decade that helping to make China's economy one of the strongest in the world would make them a leading global power. The US has dominated for decades off the back of having the world's most powerful economy and it was inevitable that China would gain the same capabilities. The additional problem is that China is an authoritarian one-party state with an all-powerful leader.


If you look at what China has been doing strategically around the world these past two decades you can see a country with a clear strategy where its long-term interests dictate its actions. Quite a few countries are discovering that Chinese financial and economic aid comes with some nasty strings attached.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

I’ve been astounded by how far China has extended its hold and I don’t think it’s gone down well with the people of those countries. Last year on a tour in Jamaica, our guide pointed out the Mandela highway and wasn’t too impressed that it was being built by the Chinese.  


We had the same in Cambodia when touring Sihanoukville.  Everywhere was being developed by the Chinese and the guide said the Chinese were taking over. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Brian Gaze
07 April 2020 17:01:33


 


 



Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


I don't understand that graph. Is it showing the total number of people in UK hospitals who have tested positive for corona virus?


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
The Beast from the East
07 April 2020 17:02:59


I’ve been astounded by how far China has extended its hold and I don’t think it’s gone down well with the people of those countries. Last year on a tour in Jamaica, our guide pointed out the Mandela highway and wasn’t too impressed that it was being built by the Chinese.  


We had the same in Cambodia when touring Sihanoukville.  Everywhere was being developed by the Chinese and the guide said the Chinese were taking over. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Same in parts of South Asia. A lot of Chinese investment in Pakistan and Sri Lanka including a naval base


They are  now a global empire without having to fire a shot


They have been buying up shares as well since the recent crash. 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
SJV
07 April 2020 17:03:28


 


You might be, but if something goes wrong in the house, like the boiler goes or a pipe bursts, you will be on a long waiting list


We cant simply press pause on life for too long


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Yes, I was being a little flippant, and I take your point. My original message was in response to your suggestion that the Italy lockdown be ceased when it's several weeks away from such a decision. No country will end a lockdown when there is still several hundred deaths per day.

Bugglesgate
07 April 2020 17:04:08


 


You are not symptomatic though? Why would you think you are a danger? Its been weeks since the lockdown


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


That's   not what I'm talking about - You said you wanted lock-down ended so that people ,with niggley teeth could go to the dentist.   THAT is what will consign people to death.


Anyway, if it turns septic / I get an abscess  and I'm in a great deal of pain our local lot are  operating an emergency service.  That's probably the case everywhere.  Likewise for your other example. If you want a new kitchen  fitted it's tough shit, but if your house is flooding emergency plumbers are still available


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Gandalf The White
07 April 2020 17:11:04


I’ve been astounded by how far China has extended its hold and I don’t think it’s gone down well with the people of those countries. Last year on a tour in Jamaica, our guide pointed out the Mandela highway and wasn’t too impressed that it was being built by the Chinese.  


We had the same in Cambodia when touring Sihanoukville.  Everywhere was being developed by the Chinese and the guide said the Chinese were taking over. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


I am not surprised. I've read similar stories from countries in Africa and one from Pakistan.


Chinese money generally comes with Chinese workers, Chinese-made parts and equipment and a tick in the box that says 'Strategic benefit for China'. There's seldom any philanthropic element, from what I've read.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


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