OK Here is the latest JFF model.
Updates: I've gone with the 9740 figure, I've also removed the linear increase in tests up to the end of the month. Its clear this is not ramping up anywhere near this fast. For now I have assumed a roughly constant number of tests in the future of about 11k. When there is more data I will use moving averages to extrapolate future number of tests.
With that in mind. Today's daily increase of 3634 is slightly more consistent with the model forecast than yesterday's however remains on the low side. Again this indicates, to me, that the basic parameters may need changing slightly as the model is overestimating the number of confirmed cases slightly. Nevertheless I will wait a bit longer before doing that to see if things get back on track.
A few predictions (again this has not changed in the last few weeks as the same basic parameters are being used).
Total number of cases (constant testing at 11k ish): 99306 (again this has not changed, any variation is only due to the number of tests)
100 confirmed cases crossover point (when we have 'control'): 28th April
Peak in number of confirmed cases (again testing caveat): 5th April (2 days ago)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.