Sorry, but that is guesswork. Doubt is currently being cast very strongly on those assumptions by those involved on the frontline of research.

 

That is impossible, so isn't an option.

SK is the model. They didn't shut down.

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The 651 patients in England were aged between 20 and 101

20 aged between 20 & 101 had no known underlying health conditions when they tested positive for coronavirus

It is not guesswork, but fact. Also stating that SK is the way forward, would pointing out that your first argument is being raised by events in said SK.

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Indeed. It's a coronavirus and all other coronaviruses - including SARSv1 - cause immunity to be developed for a while after infection. This isn't some wacky alien thing, it's a variant of what we already have.

As such, science would say that you start by assuming it behaves in a similar way to what we know already. You then test, test, test!

 

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Could you point me to the study that shows those who have had covid-19, including "mild" cases, have immunity afterwards and that this lasts several months at least, if not a year or more?

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True, all we can do is smooth the curve. The virus is here to stay so herd immunity is the only option until we have a viable vaccine 

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A lot of assumptions there. Research is currently suggesting covid-19 might work more like HIV, and that the question of people who've had it - especially mild cases - having immunity for any significant period is very much yet to be determined.

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I am not going to rise to this.

I don't have time machine, but as Darren states above this is common knowledge of Coronaviruses.

 

OK I shall bite a bit, do we literally trawl the internet for the worst case scenario, and treat it as fact. It is research, it is ongoing research, and as with all research it can be right or wrong. It is not fact.

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This is just wrong. With serious doubt over - and certainly no proof of - immunity following having the virus, the only option is suppress, and then massive testing and tracing as SK have done, prior to a vaccine being brought in that DOES grant herd immunity. It's insane to base a strategy on accepting a load of deaths because you're crossing your fingers that you are immune for at least a lengthy period once you've had this thing.

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Don't need a time machine, just the ability to look up and read the current research actually taking place on this specific virus. Surely that is more value that past research on different viruses. I'm basing what I'm saying on the former.

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You need one more P, Saint, the Prey - that's me and thee. Then the line-up is complete. R.

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If it’s the research Brian mentioned yesterday then, no, it isn’t like HIV.  SARS-Cov2 can kill a T-cell but cannot take it over and reproduce.

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We are suppressing it via the restrictions but they will be relaxed soon enough and as long as the NHS can handle any increase in demand then great. Meanwhile the virus will continue to spread and we will gradually achieve more and more immunity. As long as those in the vulnerable groups are shielded then we should be able to manage fine until a vaccine is available.

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One piece of research, which is not yet peer reviewed and may be right and maybe wrong. I can't believe people cannot face the fact of this, and that is the only protection from this other than a vaccine (which may have to change every year and be given to the entire population of an annual basis), and I know it sounds horrible, but is to let enough people catch it (and we will lose people) that we build herd immunity.

 

What stopped Spanish flu. Enough people got it (and we lost a lot of them) that we got herd immunity until it mutated into a milder form. It isn't rocket science.

Viruses in nature (animal kingdom) don't just disappear, they go through the same process we are at the moment. Less the Vaccine option.

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Looks good on paper, SJ. That's the plan - but if we misjudge the timing or the extent of human cooperation if could be a somewhat different outcome. I won't ask if you want to bet on it, I'll just hope you are right.

Roger

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Herd immunity, for a period of time most likely, will be happening anyway. Unless the virus mutates/weakens we will get waves of infection. This is why social distancing must be maintained, at least for a lengthy period, irrespective of lock down measures being lifted

No betting from me and I don’t envy the governments of the world who must make these decisions. 

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NI "lockdown" extended to 9/5.

Expect rest of UK to follow.

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Shops and some businesses should reopen next month but distancing should remain. The virus will still be there but would spread slower. It should also be possible to distance in eateries if tables were spread further apart. Not what many places would like but at least they would be able to do some trade

I agree, it is like opening and closing the sluice gates during a flood. You have to time it right and control it.

you can test and trace as much as you like, but if you have vulnerable people within your population it will not go away.

All we are doing at the moment is controlling the spread so that the NHS can cope, in no way what we are doing at the moment will wipe it out. This is why our alleged lockdown is looser than most other countries. The scientists could see the spike coming and flattened it with this semi lockdown. Slowly it will be lifted (although I suspect people that can work at home will be doing so for some considerable time), then on occasion reimposed and so on.

 

To be brutally honest, I suspect we locked down when we did to purely build up the NHS to cope with what is coming and to able to continue operating.

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Out to the Bank Holiday so makes sense

The British Horseracing Authority have announced the suspension of racing is extended 'until further notice'

 Excellent news. 

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I can’t believe your peddling this herd immunity nonsense again. Why?

The data suggests it’s not just the most vunerable or people with underlying conditions that die. 

Equally, lots of people through herd immunity will get sick and will require a hospital. How do you suggest we would manage that. 

I miss my normal life, my friends and my family. But hell, I’d rather put up with this they cause anyone’s early demise. 

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This is so spot on and I can't believe that we are still talking about herd immunisation without a vaccine.

1) How do you manage this if the vast majority of the population hasn't been infected yet?

2) what threshold of deaths are we supposed to accept? 

So many experts keep saying that the key is mass testing, tracing and isolation at the end of the lock down. That's not easy, but it's by far the cheapest way forward!