Hi Kieren

I have never really followed GEM much to be honest. How reliable, or otherwise, is it generally compared to the likes of GFS, UKMO and ECM out of interest?

Actually, I rate GEM. very highly. I've followed it closely this year and found it to be as useful as GFS and ECM. 

It is a good model to be fair to Kieren! But I note he fails to mention ECM, which is also good!

Trends seem to indicate a decent spell coming up for southern parts at least. As it is often said, less so the further north and west you go.

There is little basis for that especially for the southern ~half of the country. 

Nice ECM this morning but the GFS really is a peach!

Best GEFS this year as well.

16 day GEFS 2m max temps clustering for #London. EVERY day from 31/05 to 10/06 has >50% of runs in the 21C to 30C group. Will we soon see a red appearing for the first time ever? (These charts weren't available last summer!) https://t.co/Ku8ZwBJUoy pic.twitter.com/NzHcQtFTDG

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) May 26, 2021

And speaking of jet streams, once it's cleared from the UK this week, it stays away with occasional minor streaks N and S of the UK through to end of run Fri 11th. Some promising warm weather appearing this morning on the 16-dayer  for week 2, also mainly dry (some rain week 2 in S)

GFS - HP ridging from S over the weekend, toppling into Norway by Thu 3rd with LP from Biscay moving N to augment the S-ly flow for a few days but not having much other effect. HP re-forms Tue 8th with ridge from Azores to Norway, strongly enough to hold off an Atlantic LP to Fri 11th

GEFS - temps in all runs climbing to 2-3C above norm by Tue 1st and mean staying there throughout (even if control run tries to spoil the party) - generally significantly warmer than yesterday's forecast. Dry though one or two runs produce spectacular spikes in the S, and there is  more but random pptn in the N

ECM - doesn't show the Biscay LP, but keeps pressure low in the N Atlantic, with centres close enough to affect N Scotland Thu 3rd, and more of a mobile W-ly look to the weather from Tue 1st

Excellent and those will be 23-25C days for a long time are much welcome nad heatwave can come later but now we need at least 2 weeks of warm to settled weather to dry it all out and heating off for good in June 100%.  Rain spikes also dropped as well. Today the last day for horrible low teen temps and hopefully not to see this until October with tomorrow morning last time to turn the heating on to kill of the coldness as warmer nights will arrive too.

For what it is worth, here is the mean height anomaly for day 15 on the EC this morning:

Could go either way, but with with the strongest ridging over eastern Canada and the NE of Europe, could it be a cause of being 'stuck in the middle with you'?  Either way, all academic at this stage. 

Looks decent enough and the low pressure over Greenland is most welcome. 

Sounds like great forecasts from all the models. My goodness we all welcome that.

It's also a very warm run for much of next week! Raw data shows 27C so it wouldn't take much for us to be pushing 30C if it verified.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=201&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=225&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=249&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)

It is the only predictable thing in a thread about weather models.  Always spot on, just in time every time. 

Your curious obsession with poor summer weather shows no sign of abating even if the cool and unsettled pattern we've been locked into for weeks and weeks now does. 

I note with some fascination that you neglected to mention that the very same run implies 30c in points SE in about a week. Probably neither a heatwave nor a flood will transpire, but it's interesting how you only mention extreme unsettled outcomes regardless of what the models as a whole are saying. 

Meanwhile, excellent weather to be had in the reliable timeframe, and on a Bank Holiday weekend too, proving that the "risky business" of writing off whole seasons before they even start is a fool's errand. 

👏👏👍

Didn't say it was likely, but just commenting on what its showing.

I thought that was what the model thread was about, commenting on thr models.

I think the GFS is looking like bringing a quick thundery breakdown after a few fine days, then who knows after that.

However, UKMO cancels its breakdown from yesterday and looks nice all the way out to the end.

GEM has consistently been unsettled quickly, and it is again this afternoon. A quick breakdown then cool and unsettled. GEM has consistently stuck to its guns for a few days, so I think its more likely to be correct given the consistency.

You said the same about the UKMO model and consistency yesterday. I can only see the GEM 12z out to 102 hours so far?

Come on Moomin enjoy the decent charts.

Excellent GFS and UKMO 12s. Looking warm mid 20s and perhaps thundery, for me perfect summer weather

The GFS has consistently been showing warm and settled weather for a period of days, so you’d agree that is good? I still only see the GEM chart to 108hr for the 12z run?