WX temp charts show a small retreat in freezing weather to finish up in week 2 from N Baltic E-ward to Russia, slightly milder and just above norm for the rest of Europe except Spain. Pptn maps are having none of yesterday's dry weather; rain from Atlantic to cover Britain, France, Italy for both weeks plus Spain in week 1. To match this, there is no significant area of HP near Britain in today's model output unlike yesterday.
GFS Op - well-forecasted LP sliding SE to Biscay 980mb tomorrow Sat, filling and moving NE across N France while new LP sets up 955mb Rockall Thu 14th moving N to Iceland (S-ly gales in the west, but LP too far away to be severe). Then a period with generally low pressure all the way across the Atlantic to the Baltic finally resolving into 975mb depression mid-Atlantic Sat 23rd projecting troughs which move N across Britain.
ECM - somewhat similar but while the LP Thu 14th is closer to Iceland, it does have small secondary LPs in its circulation running up the W coast of Britain.
GEFS -temp close to or a little above norm in S, cooler at first in Scotland, to Sun 17th with reasonable ens agreement, then declining to norm but with much less certainty, and indeed a wide spread of 20C between coldest and warmest on Thu 21st. More rain in most ens members than shown yesterday and heaviest in S and W.
EDIT - Jet strong throughout and mostly aimed at France, with breaks in the sequence Wed 13th and 20th
I'm away for the weekend so no reviews for a couple of days.
Edited by user
08 March 2024 08:00:12
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Reason: Not specified
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