3 SSW's in a season and barely a flake seen, puts that one to bed me thinks.

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But it is just one variable amongst many.  I think dismissing a SSW is about the same as assuming it guarantees a severe cold spell.  We can get cold weather without a SSW and average or mild weather with a SSW.

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Wasn't winter 2023-24 the fifth mildest on record in the UK? It's amazing how many people (not here) think it was average or even cold.

Edit: By CET I've got it at 4 not 5.

Place    Year    Value    Dec    Jan    Feb    1961-90    1971-00    1981-10    1991-20    1659-2020
1    1868    6.77    7.2    5.6    7.5    2.7    2.14    2.14    1.9    3
2    2015    6.73    9.6    5.5    5.1    2.66    2.1    2.1    1.86    2.96
3    1833    6.53    6.9    7.1    5.6    2.46    1.9    1.9    1.66    2.76
4    2023    6.5    7    4.7    7.8    2.43    1.87    1.87    1.63    2.73
 

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Newly repeated hint of an end of March Arctic plunge on the 0Z GFS Op this morning. It has been known. Is this he SSW?
I remember 3 consecutive nightly snow falls in the last week of march in the 70s (‘75?). Sunny days saw +7 degrees and everything melted, but the night time snow falls were beautiful, with feathery sugar snow and - 2 degree temps. And that was Mid Sussex. Mind you that was +0.4 above pre-industrial levels, not + 1.5. 

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In keeping with climatology. Northerlies are at their most common in late March through to late April. 

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I think if SSWs do have some sort of effect, it would be months, rather than weeks, down the line. 

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WX maps - as yesterday the main area of freezing weather retreats slowly NE-wards over the next two weeks, but less mildness Britain and N Europe (Germany etc) in week 2, plus the reminder that winter is not long departed as a significant area of ultra-cold re-appears over N Russia. Warmth along the N African coast re-appearing. Pptn in week 1 all through the N Mediterranean, plus the Atlantic; in week 2 for Atlantic, Turkey and Spain. Pptn in week 1 for W/NW Britain, France, Spain, Balkans; the dry area in the Baltic expands in week 2 to cover SE Britain and France in week 2 splitting the wet area between the Atlantic and Greece.

GFS Op - LP from Greenland sliding SE-wards to Biscay 980mb Sat 9th, this moving E and filling, but minimal pressure rise before new LP W of the Hebrides 980mb Thu 14th. Pressure does then rise, 1030mb Holland Sun 17th as the major influence on Britain with S-ly winds before moving to Iceland 1040mb Sat 23rd with ridge SE-wards leaving Britain on the edge between mild SE-lies in the west and cold NE-lies in the east. 

ECM - similar at first but the pressure rise over Holland is absent with LP 980mb still on the Atlantic Sun 17th not far west of Ireland

GEFS - mean temps stay near norm through the next two weeks. Op & control milder around Thu 14th after which agreement between ens members breaks down, many staying close to mean but with some extreme outliers, both warm and cold. Some rain at some times in different runs, some staying dry esp in E, never very much rain except in far W & SW

 

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A stopped clock and all that. 😀 It looks remarkably like the previous failed attempts this winter. 

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The Law of Sod dictates that this one will happen, when it's too late in the season to be of any use.

 

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Could end up with a named storm by the middle of next week if the GFS is to be believed.

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WX temp charts show a small retreat in freezing weather to finish up in week 2 from N Baltic E-ward to Russia, slightly milder and just above norm for the rest of Europe except Spain. Pptn maps are having none of yesterday's dry weather; rain from Atlantic to cover Britain, France, Italy for both weeks plus Spain in week 1. To match this, there is no significant area of HP near Britain in today's model output unlike yesterday.

GFS Op - well-forecasted LP sliding SE to Biscay 980mb tomorrow Sat, filling and moving NE across N France while new LP sets up 955mb Rockall Thu 14th moving N to Iceland (S-ly gales in the west, but LP too far away to be severe). Then a period with generally low pressure all the way across the Atlantic to the Baltic finally resolving into 975mb depression  mid-Atlantic Sat 23rd projecting troughs which move N across Britain.

ECM - somewhat similar but while the LP Thu 14th is closer to Iceland, it does have small secondary LPs in its circulation running up the W coast of Britain. 

GEFS -temp close to or a little above norm in S, cooler at first in Scotland, to Sun 17th with reasonable ens agreement, then declining to norm but with much less certainty, and indeed a wide spread of 20C between coldest and warmest on Thu 21st. More rain in most ens members than shown yesterday and heaviest in S and W.

EDIT - Jet strong throughout and mostly aimed at France, with breaks in the sequence Wed 13th and 20th

I'm away for the weekend so no reviews for a couple of days.

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Not sure it is past T120, but the trend seems to be back to a westerly flow and damper again for sure, and that could throw any sort of windy bomb our way being the meteorological equinox. The GFS 18Z and 0Z have backed right away from any amplified FI ending now. No Arctic plunge in sight.

By the way, just for fun, if it is your bag, unlike Delia Smith, who lives in Suffolk and supports Norwich, I may live in Norfolk, but I support Ipswich Town: Its a fairy-tale season for them! Home matches are amazing - best since Burley days: Ed must be a happy bunny!

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Can anyone shed any light on why any Scandi-high we do get this year has the wrong orientation to advect cold. Even though we have an easterly QBO, and SSWs, the Scandi highs are very short lived and weak affairs, always pivoted with a SE flow. Is this just luck, or is there a particular ENSO reason or global temperature led cause? Perhaps the lack of heavyweight cold air is making them more fluid and moveable? 

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I'd go further and say that my impression of this 'winter' from a daily look at the charts has been of a semi-permanent LP centred around the Baltic, mostly fed by Arctic air, and no HP at all.

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The 12Z GFS has 25C 850s over Italy in the latter stages. Is it June or March?

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