WX charts back to the scenario in the freezing area in the far north of Europe in shrinking rapidly. Unfortunately for Britain, this is due a major push of Spring warmth up through Romania and Poland, while NW Europe incl Britain remains cool, both in terms of absolute temps and relative to longterm average. Rain in week 1 for Britain, France and the Alps, also Turkey. The former area moves south to become very heavy over N Spain, France and the Alps, leaving something less intense behind over Britain, Germany and Norway. Becoming v dry in E Europe esp Ukraine.
GFS Op - current LP moving N of Scotland and then S to S Norway 990mb Sun 24th with Britain on the fringe of its N-ly circulation. New LP from Atlantic with cold core makes a move towards Spain but then (unlike yesterday) pulls up and stops over Cornwall 955mb Wed 27th, looking stormy for Britain generally. It fills and moves N-wards slowly but is still present 985mb Sun 31st Hebrides. It or its successor then tracks as a shallower feature across England (Tue 2nd) to Norway (Thu 4th) and back to Holland (Sat 6th). At that final stage pressure is rising to the NW but in the SE there are strong NE-lies.
ECM - looks quite different to GFS after Sun 24th. Oddly, this model has changed outlooks with GFS. Previously it had that LP sticking over Britain and rejected the idea of LPs sliding down to Spain, but now it's predicting a series of LPs moving SE to Spain - 990mb Biscay Tue 26th, 985mb Cornwall Thu 28th, 990mb Portugal Sat 30th, but always with a trough extending back towards Britain.
GEFS - less active than the models above would suggest. A sharp dip to a cold day or two Sat 23rd then good agreement around the mean which is close to or just a little below norm until Apr 1st when variation sets in. Rain heaviest in w/b Mon 25th, esp in west, mostly dry before that, still appreciable amounts in some runs afterwards. Snow quite likely for northern hills.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl