I remember a year or so ago seeing an article about the Aquifers in the UK being lower than average... and that we would need to enter a prolonged period of very wet weather to see even a slight change in their situation.

Surely this has been enough

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You would have thought so.  But what happens if we now swing into another prolonged, hot, dry period? 

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Then we can enjoy it knowing that there is enough water in our reserves to prevent a major shortage and feel safely reassured that another very wet spell is just around the corner.

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I sincerely hope your tongue is firmly wedged in your cheek.

Regardless of the monsoon that's lasted for months, you bet your left bollock that, if we have a four-week hot and dry spell, the hosepipe bans and drought orders will be out.

 

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Well winter is over today officially.
And what a eternal autumn its been in reality.

TWO headline "colder weather heading south"

Wow, it will be 12c instead of 18c!
Didn't know 12c was cold.
😂
 

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The biggest plus for all this rain lately will be how lush everyrhing will look once spring growth gets going. Amazed at how richly and darkly green the grass in nearby fields looks lately. 
 

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It looks like it will be a year with sudden changes from above average to near average temperatures, some periods and spells of dry settled weather as always in the South, but I always enjoy it when some wet windy overcast rainy weather comes, but also we often see the NW and North gets the cold weather more often in the November to March time and dates period.  I will be happy to see another 3 months of normal to above average rainfall, but the south will continue to get the best weather at all times of the years, this has been very prevalent indeed.

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WX charts - less retreat of freezing weather or advance of warmth over E Europe than shown yesterday. By week 2 there's a very conventional N-S gradient: Freezing, most of Scandinavia and N Russia; Cool though not far from long-term average for Europe N of the Alps; Mild to warm in the Mediterranean. Week 1 rain for W Britain, France, Spain, Alps and Turkey; week 2 Britain is almost dry (yes you did read that!) and a band of rain settles W-E from Spain to Ukraine.

GFS Op - LP N of Scotland moving S down the N Sea to Denmark 990mb Sun 24th with brief N-lies for Britain. Then an LP from Greenland sliding SE-wards, deepest as it gets to Fastnet 960mb Wed 27th  but sticking there with some quite cool air trapped in its circulation until Sat 30th when it fills quickly and moves on down to Portugal. Pressure then rises from the SW to cover Britain (some NE-lies for SE England at first) and by Sat 6th is centred 1030mb Ireland.

ECM - similar to GFS  with the variation that the LP Wed 27th is further out in the Atlantic and has less cold air entrained; but it's still sticking around Mon 1st and not by that stage moving away.

GEFS - temp dropping to cool for a couple of days from tomorrow, mean resuming norm and staying there until start of April in the middle of quite a tight cluster of ens members (in Scotland there are more on the cool side than in England). The usual spread then sets in but op and control suggest some spring warmth from Mon 1st. Rain forecast in all ens members w/b Mon 25th, after that some ens members have some quite heavy rain but most (incl op & control) remain dry. Snow possible for Scottish mountains for a few days from Mon 25th.
 

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Some encouragement from this morning's GFS if you're after drier weather. Frankly I'd be worried for you if you weren't by now! 
Early April sees a steady rise in pressure which is supported by most of the set of ensembles.

It will be interesting to see if;
a. the trend continues
b. it is supported by ECM when it comes into range

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Still a risk of snow early next week. I'm semi tempted to open a short term thread, but the risk of a nothing burger for 99% of people that don't live on a hill is currently a bit too high.

ARPEGE0Z is an example of how this could play out in a way that produces quite widespread snow on Monday.
 

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That has not at all been the case in the past half year! 

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You mean the Express were wrong...?

I'm shocked, I tell ya! 🤣

 

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No absolutely not  a year or mores average rainfall in that time 

Very true and I know many on the coast have had way more than here, not that many miles inland.

In the last year the only month with anything like a "drier than average" tag would be July and that was close to 50mm, Feb 23 at 4mm was the only month that was extremely dry, but more than year ago now of course.

The aquifers are full the brim, obviously overflowing, and the waters from the Pang, Lambourn, Kennet etc cannot get out into the Thames due to its level, so all three are near record levels even with little rain for the last 2 weeks.

 

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The retreat of the cold weather northwards is on again according to this morning's WX. Unfortunately for Britain, Spring warmth is moving N-wards over E Europe and to a lesser extent in the central Mediterranean while it remains cool from Iceland and Norway down across NW Europe. Rain in week 1 for Britain, France, Iberia and the Alps; in week 2 this area shifts E-wards to lie from Italy up to the Baltic, still somewhat damp in Britain - any really dry weather forecast for Britain has disappeared to be replaced by a larger dry area around the Black Sea.

GFS Op - LP moving S to Denmark 995mb tomorrow, brief N-ly for Britain. Troughs from N Atlantic then moving SE-wards past Cornwall but deepening as time goes by and finally sticking 960mb SW Ireland Wed 27th with lots of polar maritime in its circulation. This only slowly moves NE to Norway 995mb Mon 1st but throughout leaving a trough hanging back covering Britain. For the following week, a spell of mostly W-ly zonal weather though pressure is never that high even in the S. 

ECM - starts like GFS but the LP never really clears to Norway and on Mon 1st is a shallow feature 990mb lying along the Channel.

GEFS - cool, soon returning to norm or a little below with fair ens agreement through to Wed 3rd, after which perhaps a little warmer though no common feature in the various runs. Appreciable amounts of rain in w/b Wed 27th, (Mon 25th in N & W) smaller amounts in some runs before and after that.

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Rain and showers throughout the Easter holiday weekend looks pretty set in stone now. At least it will be mild!

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Pretty potent northerly mid April if 12z verifies..

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I hope it disappears from the output soon. The scenario is the coldest on the ensemble suite by the look of things but not totally without support. I would welcome some spring warmth to be honest.

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Oh dear. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png 

There are a few unpleasantly cold (for the time of year) charts in the output at the moment, not just the GFS op but also the 12z ECM.

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WX temp charts showing the area in the far north affected by the coldest weather still shrinking, but gradually, and Europe becoming milder, but also gradually - below LTA in west, above in east. Any real warmth still stuck in the Mediterranean. Rain in week 1 for Britain, France & Iberia (esp heavy in Portugal), in week 2 for W Britain, France and Norway, some around fringes of Med (not clearing Britain as much as shown yesterday). Very dry area developing around the Black Sea.

GFS Op - current LP in N Sea moving E-ward to Finland, losing identity, and replaced by new low from Greenland reaching S Ireland 985mb Tue 26th sticking there and deepening 960mb Thu 28th, lots of polar maritime in its circulation so expect April showers a week early. This LP stays in place, filling, until Mon 1st when it revives and moves to Biscay 970mb. HP then moves up from the SW to be centred over Holland Thu 4th, with a period of mild but strong SW-lies for Britain though stormy in far NW as deep LPs brush past e.g. 970mb Rockall Sat 6th.

ECM - similar to GFS though LP Mon 1st is more extensive with some quite brisk E-lies for Britain; and no sign of the HP developing in final chart (Wed 3rd)

GEFS - temps soon recovering to norm and staying close to that, sometimes a little above (Mon 1st), sometimes below with good ens agreement to Wed 3rd when wide divergence appears - op & control very mild but a few runs equally colder. Rain peaking Wed 27th - Sat 30th in S, (25th - 29th in N), then another period Mon 1st - Thu 4th (but not even briefly dry in the W) when many but not all ens members show rain, persisting in a few ens members to end of run. Spring snow likely over high ground in the first wet period, possible also in the second one.

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