theweatheroutlook

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 April 2024 07:34:26
WX temps continuing yesterday's trend of a major shrinkage in the coldest weather in the far N of Europe, and the warmth from the south advancing on a broader front than yesterday by week 2 - reaching everywhere N of a line from S France through C Europe. Britain, however, will have to wait its turn, remaining close to average. Rain for Britain, France and Scandinavia in week 1, moving E from France into Germany in week 2 and leaving England (though not W Scotland) somewhat drier, not quite as dry as in evening charts yesterday.

GFS Op - current generally low pressure across Britain and on both E & W retreats and is concentrated 955mb W of Biscay Sat 6th with S-ly winds affecting mainly England. By Mon 8th this has moved north to Rockall 965mb and winds generally are more SW-ly before a secondary LP crosses Britain on Tue ushering in a week of mild SW-lies with LP well to the NW. From Sat 13th low pressure starts to run W to E close to N Scotland with cooler winds from the Atlantic.

ECM - similar to GFS but pressure higher to the south so the Tue feature is only a weak trough and later that week, Fri 12th, pressure is 1030mb English Channel with milder weather reaching well N to Scotland.

GEFS - peaks of mild/very mild weather Sat 6th & Tue 9th (much less marked in N) and then more generally (with less ens agreement) from Fri 12th with the mean dropping back to norm over the following week as outcomes diverge on either side. In the S small amounts of rain in most runs at many times, but heavier in the N & W at first, and persistent in the far NW. Best chance of dry weather in the S Sun 7th. but a week later in the N. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Matty H
03 April 2024 21:58:21
I’ve been checking the individual permutations to see if there’s anything for Q to write long posts about snow in the style of Nathan Rao. I think we are ok in that respect, but to me the outlook for the next few weeks broadly remains status quo - unsettled
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
04 April 2024 07:17:03
WX temps - the serious cold in the far N of Europe continues to retreat. In week 1 there is some positive warmth in C Europe but this subsides in week 2 and nearly all of Europe incl Britain is forecast to be slightly above norm for the time of year. There is however some real heat in S Spain. Rain in week 1 for countries around the N Sea and this extending to W Britain. In week 2, the heaviest rain is in France, in parts of the E Mediterranean especially Turkey. with just a small amount for Britain.

GFS Op - LP withdrawing W-wards from Britain but deepening 955mb off Biscay with strong S-lies for Britain for the weekend. This travels N-wards, filling, to be close to NW Scotland Tue 9th, a small secondary zipping across N France, but otherwise winds going round to the NW. Pressure rises from the SW and is centred SE England 1025mb Sat 13th with winds back into the SW. Although this HP is shunted into the continent by Wed 17th as LP reaches down from Iceland (rather half-heartedly) there is a reload of HP in SE Britain and mild SW-lies return by Sat 20th.

ECM - very much as GFS  though the small secondary is deeper at 990mb and closer, running up the Channel.

GEFS - mild Sat 6th (v mild in S), Tue 9th (almost absent in N) and from Thu 11th with good ens agreement before the the mean slowly returns to norm in the midst of an increasingly wide range of outcomes (op & control again v mild on Mon 15th). Some rain now, also around the 9th and Wed 17th and looking mostly dry at most other times though still present in the W after the 9th and the NW after the 17th. 

 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Ally Pally Snowman
04 April 2024 07:41:42
Half decent output this morning with HP trying to build in from the south. 🤞🤞🤞
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Russwirral
04 April 2024 09:30:33
First time in a long time id say the charts are looking a lot more spring like.  Pressure stabilizing to the south, less precipitation and overall calmer conditions.

This is supported across models

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
The Beast from the East
04 April 2024 10:48:19

Half decent output this morning with HP trying to build in from the south. 🤞🤞🤞

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Could be the start of another historic period of well above average temps that will last summer.
 
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
+1
Gandalf The White
04 April 2024 10:52:46

Could be the start of another historic period of well above average temps that will last summer.
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Yes, scary stuff if you understand what’s happening.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Jiries
05 April 2024 06:06:29

Could be the start of another historic period of well above average temps that will last summer.
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Yes if true accurate day maxes are much higher to represent actual above average than relying on fake mild nights that no use or accuracy due we sleeping that time.  
BJBlake
  • BJBlake
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
05 April 2024 06:17:01

Yes, scary stuff if you understand what’s happening.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Yes - totally agree. Whilst I welcome the two spells of high pressure shown and the longed for drier settled periods, to actually make breakfast outside the joy it should be, the potential for the summer in terms of temperature, drought and fire risk is a massive concern. The summer of 2022 saw the native flora of our woodlands collapse. Not even the common nettle could cope, and this had a devastating effect on our invertebrates and the wider food web. I really dont want to see a repeat of that, but fear we will. Last year’s wet, cooler summer was a relief. I also have a large garden and light soil. Being on a water meter, it could get very expensive to keep plants alive through extreme heat. Ive lost a lot of plants to extremes recently, to drought or frost.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
05 April 2024 07:46:29
WX temps - freezing weather in far N of Europe going, going, [nearly] gone by week 2. Generally mild and above norm temps for Europe in week 1, but in week 2 some real warmth developing over Spain and the Black Sea, but with some colder weather returning to W Europe and pishing down towards Italy, Britain on the fringe of this. Wet for Britain and NW Europe week 1, but for C/SE Europe week 2 and Britain becoming drier on the edge of some very dry weather moving N from Spain.

GFS Op - LP (Kathleen) moving N and deepening 950mb Rockall Saturday, filling but with quite a deep trough moving across Britain on Tue 9th. HP moving up from the SW for a few days at the end of that week, then after a brief interval with LP moving into the Norwegian Sea and winds in the N on Mon 15th, HP re-asserts itself and dominates Britain from Wed 17th - dry but maybe not warm as wind is still NW-ly.

ECM - like GFS but pressure recovers less after trough on Tue and Monday's N-lies coming more directly from a long way N.

GEFS - temps up - down - up - down to cool Wed 10th, then a solidly mild period lasting to Sun 14th all with good ens agreement, then returns to norm as agreement breaks up. Some rain around Tue 9th, rather dry at other times except for Scotland at first and NW Scotland more generally, even there dying away slowly.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+6
David M Porter
05 April 2024 08:40:33

Yes - totally agree. Whilst I welcome the two spells of high pressure shown and the longed for drier settled periods, to actually make breakfast outside the joy it should be, the potential for the summer in terms of temperature, drought and fire risk is a massive concern. The summer of 2022 saw the native flora of our woodlands collapse. Not even the common nettle could cope, and this had a devastating effect on our invertebrates and the wider food web. I really dont want to see a repeat of that, but fear we will. Last year’s wet, cooler summer was a relief. I also have a large garden and light soil. Being on a water meter, it could get very expensive to keep plants alive through extreme heat. Ive lost a lot of plants to extremes recently, to drought or frost.

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 



The big difference between 2022 and now was that two years ago, much of the UK went into that summer on the back of a drier than average winter, especially in southern areas. I have seen it said here before that the very dry state of the ground leading into the summer of 2022 was one of the reasons why temperatures went as high as they did that July.

Contrast the situation two years ago to where we are now where the ground in much of the UK is completely saturated after months of above average rainfall, even in the areas that are normally drier. I think we would now need an exceptionally dry & warm period for the rest of the spring and going into the start of summer for the ground to get anywhere near the level of dryness there was two years ago.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+2
Charmhills
05 April 2024 09:18:26

WX temps - freezing weather in far N of Europe going, going, [nearly] gone by week 2. Generally mild and above norm temps for Europe in week 1, but in week 2 some real warmth developing over Spain and the Black Sea, but with some colder weather returning to W Europe and pishing down towards Italy, Britain on the fringe of this. Wet for Britain and NW Europe week 1, but for C/SE Europe week 2 and Britain becoming drier on the edge of some very dry weather moving N from Spain.

GFS Op - LP (Kathleen) moving N and deepening 950mb Rockall Saturday, filling but with quite a deep trough moving across Britain on Tue 9th. HP moving up from the SW for a few days at the end of that week, then after a brief interval with LP moving into the Norwegian Sea and winds in the N on Mon 15th, HP re-asserts itself and dominates Britain from Wed 17th - dry but maybe not warm as wind is still NW-ly.

ECM - like GFS but pressure recovers less after trough on Tue and Monday's N-lies coming more directly from a long way N.

GEFS - temps up - down - up - down to cool Wed 10th, then a solidly mild period lasting to Sun 14th all with good ens agreement, then returns to norm as agreement breaks up. Some rain around Tue 9th, rather dry at other times except for Scotland at first and NW Scotland more generally, even there dying away slowly.

Originally Posted by: DEW 



Quite right David.

This talk of another summer 2022 is very premature given how wet its been.

My hunch, a warm summer but a very convective one!!🌩
Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Saint Snow
05 April 2024 09:25:49


My hunch, a warm summer but a very convective one!!🌩

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 




If it's warm, there'll certainly be no shortage of water vapour rising from the sodden ground!

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gandalf The White
05 April 2024 10:11:55

The big difference between 2022 and now was that two years ago, much of the UK went into that summer on the back of a drier than average winter, especially in southern areas. I have seen it said here before that the very dry state of the ground leading into the summer of 2022 was one of the reasons why temperatures went as high as they did that July.

Contrast the situation two years ago to where we are now where the ground in much of the UK is completely saturated after months of above average rainfall, even in the areas that are normally drier. I think we would now need an exceptionally dry & warm period for the rest of the spring and going into the start of summer for the ground to get anywhere near the level of dryness there was two years ago.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



Yet despite the sodden ground the south east is predicted to see 21c tomorrow, and that’s with a very strong wind blowing.  Yes, soil moisture is a factor, but I’m not sure that it’s a significant one?
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


David M Porter
05 April 2024 11:21:29

Yet despite the sodden ground the south east is predicted to see 21c tomorrow, and that’s with a very strong wind blowing.  Yes, soil moisture is a factor, but I’m not sure that it’s a significant one?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



For all it is much warmer down south,  when I was out driving only half-an-hour ago, the temperature in my location according to the screen behind my steering wheel was only 3.5C with a very cold NE wind. That is well below what it should be at midday for the first week of April, even in Scotland. It is forecast to get milder though over the weekend up here.

It reached 19C in one location in NE Scotland back in January, around the time of one of the storms I think it was. There was a very mild sector over the UK or at least some areas at the time, IIRC. I think how far south the wind is originating from has a lot of say in how mild/warm it gets too.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
David M Porter
05 April 2024 15:07:31

Yes - totally agree. Whilst I welcome the two spells of high pressure shown and the longed for drier settled periods, to actually make breakfast outside the joy it should be, the potential for the summer in terms of temperature, drought and fire risk is a massive concern. The summer of 2022 saw the native flora of our woodlands collapse. Not even the common nettle could cope, and this had a devastating effect on our invertebrates and the wider food web. I really dont want to see a repeat of that, but fear we will. Last year’s wet, cooler summer was a relief. I also have a large garden and light soil. Being on a water meter, it could get very expensive to keep plants alive through extreme heat. Ive lost a lot of plants to extremes recently, to drought or frost.

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 



I think I'm going to be losing a lot of plants soon to excessive rainfall if there isn't a change to drier weather soon. 😞

I imagine the vast majority of us here don't want a repeat of 2022 (I certainly don't). That said, with so many flood warnings in force across the country right now, I think a dry spell regardless of prevailing temperatures is needed PDQ.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Matty H
05 April 2024 17:17:23

I think I'm going to be losing a lot of plants soon to excessive rainfall if there isn't a change to drier weather soon. 😞

I imagine the vast majority of us here don't want a repeat of 2022 (I certainly don't). That said, with so many flood warnings in force across the country right now, I think a dry spell regardless of prevailing temperatures is needed PDQ.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



I absolutely 100% want a repeat of 2022. Fortunately it’s only early April, because the models are absolute garbage right out to the end of their runs currently. 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
+2
Chunky Pea
05 April 2024 18:07:23

If it's warm, there'll certainly be no shortage of water vapour rising from the sodden ground!

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



That depends on how dry or humid the warm airmass is. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
fairweather
05 April 2024 18:30:03

I think I'm going to be losing a lot of plants soon to excessive rainfall if there isn't a change to drier weather soon. 😞

I

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Yes, as a gardener I never thought I would be complaining of it being too wet in April in the driest region of the Country - but I cut the grass this afternoon as it was getting long but noticed how sparse it was in reality. Usually I would get 3 containers full of cuttings for that length at this time of year but it was only half that due to the lack of density of the sward.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Matty H
05 April 2024 19:28:56

That depends on how dry or humid the warm airmass is. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



Water gets hot. Water evaporates. 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
06 April 2024 07:22:10
WX shows the current 'layered' temp profile (freezing N Scandinavia, mild/warm in Med, a mildness gradient in between) changing in week 2 to one in which rather cooler weather spreads south over W Europe balanced by heat over W Spain and the Urals. Rain for the far NW in week 1 (Ireland to Norway) decreasing in week 2 though not entirely absent; in week 2 the heavy rain is for the Alps and C/SE Europe.

GFS Op - Storm Kathleen drifts N-wards to Iceland, filling, but generating a local 'runner' whistling across S England 990mb Tue 9th. Then a period of mild SW-lies controlled by HP 1030mb over Biscay to Sat 13th, terminated by LP moving past Shetland to Scandinavia with winds going round to the N by Mon 15th. HP then forms a ridge from Greenland S-wards through the Atlantic quite close to Britain though possibly cool but a new development, not shown yesterday, is LP originating Faeroes Thu 18th running south and deepening to 995mb Wales Mon 22nd (formerly the Atlantic HP hung on)

ECM - very much like GFS, perhaps LP in Atlantic closer after Tue 9th so winds are stronger and more W-ly than SW-ly.

GEFS - temp dropping in stages to cool by Wed 10th the recovering to mild (very mild in S) until Mon 15th at which point a sudden drop to norm, all with good ens agreement. Mean then stays near norm as individual runs spread out with op on the cool side.  Occasional pulses of rain to Wed 10th then mostly dry in most runs, some peaks in a few ens members ca Thu 18th. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+7
Matty H
06 April 2024 23:36:37

I absolutely 100% want a repeat of 2022. Fortunately it’s only early April, because the models are absolute garbage right out to the end of their runs currently. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



And this remains the case. Utter cack bar the odd ridge

Still so early in spring though, and the lack of posts from the snow and cold hopecasters is a refreshing reminder that winter (even though it’s not cold or snowy anymore, anyway) is as far away as ever. 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
07 April 2024 07:20:32
WX temp charts haven't really picked up on the current high values noted in W Europe implying only a brief warm spell (the charts show a weekly average), Week 1 charts show warmth persisting only in E Europe, across Ukraine and of course the Mediterranean shores. NW Europe as a whole is mild and a little above norm. Week 2 charts look much like yesterday, freezing weather breaking up into small patches in Scandinavia, warmth moving N-wards over Spain and Ukraine, while a push from the general direction of Iceland brings cool weather to Britain and NW Europe and restores freezing weather to the Alps. A large area of very dry weather over S Europe in week 1, with some rain persisting in NW Britain and Norway; in week 2 the latter fades and heavy rainfall appears around the Adriatic.

GFS Op - storm Kathleen moves NE and loses its identity in the Norwegian Sea while a small but potent secondary LP 995mb moves rapidly up the Channel Tue 9th bringing in NW-lies briefly. HP then develops 1030mb over France and extends E-wards but with LP never far from NW Scotland Britain lies under SW-lies through to Sat 13th. Pressure then drops over the Baltic bringing NW-lies to Britain (yesterday it showed more of a direct N-ly) but by Wed 17th Britain is back under HP from the Atlantic. LP then tries again Fri 19th, arriving Cape Wrath from the N 990mb but after a brief visit to the N Sea is pushed back N-wards by HP 1030mb Germany Tue 23rd with S-lies for Britain.

ECM - Similar to GFS but after Sat 13th the Baltic LP is deeper and closer but not displacing the Atlantic HP, so expect N-ly gales for the E Coast with a greater pressure gradient.

GEFS - temps dip to cool Wed 10th soon resuming very mild (6C above norm) until Sun 15th/Mon 16th when a sudden drop to cool in all ens members (good chance of snow in the N at this time), mean soon returning to norm and staying there to Tue 23rd in the middle of a moderate spread of outcomes. (Not as cool in week 2 as suggested by WX above). Scotland and the W get heavy rain on Tue but otherwise only small amounts of rain and that not in all ens members for the next fortnight. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+6
Matty H
07 April 2024 18:52:15
Some very tenuous signs of mild improvement. Looks drier for the south as pressure builds across the continent. Unfortunately it then ridges up toward Greenland and plunges us into a northerly. All at range though and nothing like cross-model agreement. 

Someone will say if only it was January 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Jiries
07 April 2024 19:57:16

Some very tenuous signs of mild improvement. Looks drier for the south as pressure builds across the continent. Unfortunately it then ridges up toward Greenland and plunges us into a northerly. All at range though and nothing like cross-model agreement. 

Someone will say if only it was January 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Until now UK still ignoring the Spring season and continuing the Autumnal weather from last year to now.  Even yesterday was not Springlike more like mild Autumnal unsettled weatrher.  Spring is the season with many variety but had delivered absolately none so far.

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