Wouldn't we all! And dry as well.
Not much sign of that in the MO at the moment - unsettled and average, more like.

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Up here at least it seems on the cold side of average, especially in the coming few days. Both the 06z GFS and ICON runs show snow here tomorrow night. I suspect it may be very cold rain/sleet but you never know.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_54_25.png 


 

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We have some GVN (greenland vortex northerly) scenarios on the GFS6Z.

I've coined this term because I'm not sure if this phenomenon has been given a name before, perhaps it has and if anyone has any research on this I'd love to see it. Anyway a GVN is an exceptionally rare event that can cause brutally cold, if short, northerly feeds. The mechanism is this.

- Tropospheric polar vortex forms a wave-1 pattern while being fairly strong. Note this is actually pretty rare; and is most likely outside of winter e.g. late autumn or spring.
- The TPV moves over greenland enhancing the deep cold core low. Low baroclinicity near the surface makes this much stronger at higher latitudes, and near the surface there could even be a shallow high.
- The TPV starts to break down with a deep HP moving in from canada towards greenland with WAA. This pushes the deep cold core low east over the greenland sea
- The deep high from canada rapidly strengthens and expands over the greenland, launching the core core low and basically the entire TPV south towards the UK
- In a race against time it hits the UK before significant cyclogenesis occurs over the surface.

If this happens the upper air temps can be brutally cold. The last time this happened was in April 2021 where -15C T850s hit the northern isles, but it was an indirect hit; some of the ensembles showed 850s as low as -28C hitting shetland. That is not a typo. I have these charts saved somewhere if you don't beleive me.

Anyway GVN showing up on some of the forecasts. Could we see a repeat of April 2021?
 

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ICON12Z showing the GVN

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I'm guessing so is the GFS 18z.

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WX temp charts - the isotherms are rotating anti clockwise about a point somewhere in Iberia. Imagine a set of spokes radiating from there: spoke 1 is a boundary stretching through the Med to the Urals bringing warm weather north; spoke 2 runs across France to the Baltic and N Russia with cool conditions; and beyond that Scotland (yes, Scotland) and N Scandinavia are freezing. Rain is persitent for both the next two weeks for Britain (surprise!), France, Spain and the Alps. Very dry around the Black Sea and the Caspian.

GFS Op - LP moving E to Scandinavia and filling but new LP 985mb Bristol Channel tomorrow (Tue) followed from the NW by deeper and colder LP 955mb SW Ireland Thu 28th. This stays in place, filling 990mb by Tue 2nd and at that stage extending a weak trough across England to Poland. Another LP attack, this time from the N, reaching Scotland Fri 5th (990mb Fair Isle), bringing a fresh source of cold air and producing LP English Channel 980mb Sun 7th dragging in N-lies for all, this area of LP only receding NE-wards slowly Wed 10th. (EDIT - compare yesterday when Britain was forecast to get mild SW-lies at this time!)

FAX - bringing fronts W-E across Britain every day this week, with the 'triple point' over Scotland Tue & Wed,  continuing until Friday when the fronts tend to run S-wards down W Ireland.

ECM - similar to GFS but trough Tue 2nd is more focused on Poland followed by a large area of slack LP covering Britain.

GEFS - Plenty of rain this week, briefly less wet around Sun 31st/Mon 1st then more rain on and off in most runs through to Wed 10th. Temps cool at first, a little above norm around the 1st, cooling to the 4th (sooner and more sharply in Scotland) after which wild variation (on 7th in the S control 15C above norm countered by some ens members 10C below). Snow row figures for Inverness 32/33 now, 20/33 at the beginning of April.

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Some big rain spikes and very warm runs appearing. Looks like there could be some active weather in the next few weeks.



 

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Not UK related but looks like Portugal could be washed off the map in the next 2 weeks!

Indeed, but unlike the UK much of Iberia is still in need of a few soakings as you can see from the soil moisture chart. People living in Galicia and Northern Portugal might think differently however!

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/soil4 

 

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The greenland vortex northerly (screw it, I'm using the term) is still on the cards according to the GFS6Z. For those that are bored by snow at this time of year, remember the cool spring rules; it can snow inland now! No showers clinging to the coast unable to get more than 5 miles inland at this time of year.

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Recent Springs have generally been unusual one way or another in these parts. Most have had at least one short "heat wave" between February and April but also some month long dry and often quite cold spells. This Spring is decidedly different. Generally much, much wetter than average (record breaking in fact) but generally average or below temperatures with little sun to boost temperatures a bit.

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  🙂 

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And S Spain too
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=18&run=6&time=90&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 
Not that Cornwall is much better off

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WX charts not unlike yesterday morning's, perhaps a little less cold though not as mild in E Europe as shown in yesterday's evening version. In more detail, rather cold from N Britain to the Baltic to far N of Russia; cool from N Spain (week 1 all of Spain is below norm)to the Alps to Poland; mild, even warm in parts through the Mediterranean to Turkey and the Caspian. Rain in week 1 very heavy in Iberia and France, not much better in Britain; in week 2 in much the same areas but extending to the Baltic and Balkans. Any really dry areas well to the east of Europe and beyond.

GFS Op - LP currently over W Britain reinforced by new centre from Greenland, combining 955mb Fastnet Thu 28th with Britain in its returning polar  maritime air but also generating cool S-lies for much of Europe. This LP wanders around close to W Britain, filling, until Mon 1st when it re-shapes itself into a trough from mid-Atlantic to the Balkans with local centre 985mb in the Channel. The trough remains through to Fri 5th with more local centres running up the Channel giving a general E/NE-ly cast to Britain's weather. As the trough wraps up and finally moves away NE-wards there is a new intervention of LP from the north Mon 8th before a ridge of HP from the Azores appears Thu 11th.

ECM - remarkably like GFS to Wed 3rd when the trough splits into two, one part moving E to Latvia 980 mb and losing its identity, the other part in mid Atlantic. The latter takes up a position W of Ireland Fri 5th with mild S-lies for Britain 

GEFS - temps near norm to Fri 5th with good ensemble agreement, perhaps a little cooler at first, a little milder later in the S, Scotland reverses this. After that, a wide range of outcomes, mostly milder or v mild - the exception is the Op run described above which is cold (Maybe the ECM synoptics should be taken as more typical). Rain, often heavy, in most ens members at most times, little sign of a dry period in the S & W, perhaps a little relief in the N & E at first.

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WX temp charts changing from week 1 when the freezing weather in the N was retreating and Europe as whole was generally cool, to week 2 with something of a regional resurgence of the cold weather (v cold N Norway) while at the same time much warmer from S France to the Danube basin. Britain is divided, cold in the N, seasonal norm in the S. Still plenty of rain around - Spain*, Alps*, France, England in week 1; N France*, all of Britain, Germany* & S Baltic week 2. (* particularly heavy).

GFS Op - current LP deepening further 955 mb and retreating a little off SW Ireland tomorrow Thu, before making a circuit of W Britain (and affecting the rest). It's back to SW Ireland, flabbier at 990mb Mon 1st, before becoming part of a broad trough from mid-Atlantic across Britain to the Baltic states (locally deeper from time to time e.g. Thu 4th 985mb Ireland, again Sun 7th). From Tue 9th a brief pressure rise over Britain, but new LP back in position W of Ireland 985mb Fri 12th.

ECM - similar to GFS though the 'broad trough' is more of a two-centre affair at least to start with, W of Ireland and in the Baltic, with Britain under a col of marginally higher pressure between.

GEFS - ens agreement on temps near norm to Thu 4th*, after which more variation but definitely milder than shown yesterday. Rain in most runs at most times, not dramatically heavy except in W, possibly a little drier around Sat 30th. (* but rather cool and wet for a cluster including op at this date in Scotland and N England; hill snow possible)

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I'm surprised more isn't being made of tomorrow's storm system.

Down here the GFS has been creeping up (gusts into the low 60s now), as has MetO - gusts to 46 showing now, up from 40 this morning. Most times over the winter it's ended up in the middle, which would mean low 50s, perhaps even mid 50s... enough to cause a bit of disruption, especially now trees are coming into leaf down here.

I've barricaded my neighbour's dodgy fence with wheelie bins... last year his stupid trampoline blew into one of the panels, causing bits to fly off and denting the wooden panelling on my "posh shed". The trampoline is still in his garden, but now on the other side, meaning even more momentum if it gets caught in the wind!
 

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It baffles me why there isn't a yellow out for wind...

...and it turns out there is, just not for Kent.

A deep area of low pressure will bring a spell of very windy weather to parts of southwest and then southern England on Thursday. Gusts of 50 mph are expected quite widely, while some exposed coastal spots may experience gusts of 60 to 70 mph, with large waves also likely. The strong winds will be accompanied by heavy, squally showers with the possibility of hail and thunder in some locations. Hail won't fall everywhere but where it does it can quickly make road surfaces slippery, while surface water and spray are likely to worsen travel conditions rather more widely.

The high-res models show inland gusts into the 60s or 70s in places - HARMONIE, AROME, and even the 3z UKV churned this out this morning.

I've a feeling there will be a LOT of "where did that come from?" comments come Friday morning!

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Judging by the instability, thunder and lightning right now, I think anything is possible for tomorrow.
The current radar looks let's say interesting. Not model related of course.

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  Well the wind and rain are no longer special to mentioned as it been attacking us since last year and the nasty pattern changed had been with us erased our Spring, summer and Winter seasons out and this first month of Spring already erased all being replaced with Autumnal weather.  Quite serious if this will not stop and UK end up permanent Faroes, Shetland climate where no summer or winter exist.  Perhaps the islands themselves will be better off than here.

WX week 1 temps staying cool for Europe (albeit this means above average for the east), still cold across the far north including Scotland and warmth for the Mediterranean though not Iberia. In week 2 a significant movement of mild/warm weather north to a line from Portugal -Alps - C Russia but cold still hanging on in the north as before, and quite a narrow band in between. Rain for Britain, France and Baltic coasts in both weeks, plus Spain in week 1, though Scotland is a little drier at first.

GFS Op - deep LP currently near Ireland dominating UK & continental weather, circulating around near the west of Britain until mostly filled Mon 1st when pressure falls across the Baltic and a broad trough establishes from mid-Atlantic to the Baltic States via Britain, winds tending W-ly for England and E-ly for Scotland. This trough persists until Wed 10th with sometimes local deeper centres e.g. 980mb SW Ireland Sat 6th. From Wed 10th the Atlantic end of the trough dominates and moves to N Britain 980mb Fri 12th.

ECM - similar to GFS, if anything the eastern end of that persistent trough is further N, over Finland implying colder weather for Scotland.

GEFS - In the S, temps near norm to Fri 5th with good ens agreement; the main cluster of runs is then mild for a week before dropping back to norm; a slightly drier weekend but otherwise rain frequent and persistent throughout, not too heavy except in the SW.  In Scotland and N England, temps near norm only to Wed 3rd, then a cool spell to Sat 6th before mild as above; not a great deal of rain until Wed 3rd then persistent and often heavy. Hill snow likely around the 3rd.

EDIT - GFS shows jetstream persistent and often strong across N France throughout.

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