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The Beast from the East
29 March 2024 12:43:33

Hope you're avoiding it!

In the end what I expected to happen did indeed happen - MetO raw now has 51 as the strongest gusts (in an hour), GFS ended up at 52. The highest gust recorded at the yacht club a few miles away is 48, but it's relatively sheltered from the SW/SSW.

I'd love to know why the MetO raw so predictably undercooks max gusts. It's done it half a dozen times over winter, and now spring - with usually a whole day of "ninja upgrades" as the winds approach. Similarly GFS always seems to go too high, backing down at the last minute...

Originally Posted by: Retron 



There should have been a yellow warning here as well. Nothing too damaging but broken fence panels from last time blown over and flying debris and wheelie bins at about 6 to 7pm, so should have been some sort of warning
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
idj20
29 March 2024 16:40:36
Seeing the 12 GFS run showing the Atlantic throwing low after low after low towards the UK as we go into the first week of April is testing my patience - as if I haven't got bored of this seemingly endless Autumn months ago. The latest UKMO run offers a slightly better picture - at least as far as here at the SE of the UK is concerned but our maritime-type climate is such a drag most of the time.
Folkestone Harbour. 
+2
ozone_aurora
29 March 2024 17:41:01

Seeing the 12 GFS run showing the Atlantic throwing low after low after low towards the UK as we go into the first week of April is testing my patience - as if I haven't got bored of this seemingly endless Autumn months ago. The latest UKMO run offers a slightly better picture - at least as far as here at the SE of the UK is concerned but our maritime-type climate is such a drag most of the time.

Originally Posted by: idj20 


Yes, it does seem to be an endless dull, very wet spell. Wouldn't be surprised to see a very wet April.

My confidence for a nice summer is low.

Wish I knew the root causes of endless, unsettled spells. Seems that no-one knows, but yet computers seem to know of they can forecast months ahead.
David M Porter
29 March 2024 17:54:49

Yes, it does seem to be an endless dull, very wet spell. Wouldn't be surprised to see a very wet April.

My confidence for a nice summer is low.

Wish I knew the root causes of endless, unsettled spells. Seems that no-one knows, but yet computers seem to know of they can forecast months ahead.

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 



By my reckoning, this must be one of the longest-lasting persistent unsettled spells that the UK has experience since the washout year that was 2012.

Part of me has been thinking that the wet spell which has been ongoing since last autumn has been payback for the dryness that southern areas experienced during the summer of 2022 and the 2021/22 winter. That very dry spell seemed to mostly be concentrated on southern parts as I don't recall there being any prolonged dry spells anywhere in Scotland during the first half-dozen months or so of 2022.

 
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+2
Retron
29 March 2024 18:01:10

By my reckoning, this must be one of the longest-lasting persistent unsettled spells that the UK has experience since the washout year that was 2012.

Part of me has been thinking that the wet spell which has been ongoing since last autumn has been payback for the dryness that southern areas experienced during the summer of 2022 and the 2021/22 winter. That very dry spell seemed to mostly be concentrated on southern parts as I don't recall there being any prolonged dry spells anywhere in Scotland during the first half-dozen months or so of 2022.
 

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


"Be it dry or be it wet, nature always pays her debt".

As you say, this wet period nicely balances some of the very dry conditions of previous years - it remains to be seen when the lurch back to prolonged dry conditions will occur! (Obviously I'm hoping it's not during summer, as I enjoyed having a green lawn for once... it's rare to see that through the whole summer down here).

FWIW the "final warming" is going to be late this year. In theory that means an unsettled spring, in practice? We'll see...
Leysdown, north Kent
Matty H
29 March 2024 20:02:10

GFS ensemble mean is going for lying snow north yorkshire northwards Wednesday-Friday. Amounts vary but typically 1-3cm lower levels, 2-7cm hills, 10-30cm mountains. This would be causing alot of excitement if it was January. Pretty good for an ensemble mean.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Someone had better give the MetO the heads up so their forecasts can reflect this. 

Wrong thread, but I think I heard earlier this is the wettest 18 months since the 1800s
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
David M Porter
29 March 2024 23:40:54

Someone had better give the MetO the heads up so their forecasts can reflect this. 

Wrong thread, but I think I heard earlier this is the wettest 18 months since the 1800s

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Re your second point, I wouldn't be at all surprised if that is the case, Matty. There does seem to have been a distinct lack of longish spells of dry weather since the end of the summer of 2022, both in my own neck of the woods and more generally.

The last notably dry weather I can recall here which lasted a week/two weeks was the settled spell of the second half of last May and the first two-thirds of June. Aside from the hot first week of September, the autumn was no better than last summer was.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
30 March 2024 07:03:45
WX temps for week 1 look much as they have been, cold in N Europe (i.e. Scandinavia, less so in Scotland), cool for most of Europe (still including Spain this morning), mild in the Mediterranean and Black Sea. A big development in week 2 with some very warm weather from the Danube Basin up to Poland - but still cool in W Europe. Rain for Atlantic coastal countries including Britain in week 1, dry for Mediterranean and Black Sea; in week 2 the focus is on Portugal, S France, N Italy but with a large very dry area present to match the warmth above. Britain becoming a little drier.

GFS Op - As previously forecast, a broad trough developing from mid-Atlantic across Britain to Baltic; by Wed 3rd this has twin centres Atlantic and Baltic with Britain under a col but the Atlantic end begins to dominate and the Baltic to die away. By Sun 7th LP is 985mb S Ireland (SW-lies for England, NE-lies for Scotland) and HP is well established in E Europe. The LP slowly fills and moves away SE-wards leaving Britain under slack indeterminate pressure but by Sun 14th HP from the SW covers Britain and is linking to the continental HP which by this time has drifted N to Norway.

ECM - similar distribution of areas of HP/LP but generates deeper LP close to Britain; Wed 3rd LP 990mb Bristol Channel additional to the twin centres above, Sat 6th the Atlantic LP is close to W Ireland 970mb, Sun 7th 980mb Shetland in addition to that off SW Ireland.

FAX agrees with ECM Wed 3rd with a well defined LP 990mb N England, up till then showing showery troughs moving N-wards.

GEFS - in the S, temps from Wed 3rd on the mild side for a week before dropping back to norm with fairly good ens agreement throughout; rain in every run at some time or other in moderate amounts (but heavy in SW at first). Similar in Scotland and N England though not quite as mild, and less rain after the first week. Yesterday's forecast of a big dip in temp in the N has gone from all but half a dozen runs, though op & control (pretty well out on their own) have put in a different one around Wed 10th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
31 March 2024 06:42:44
WX temps in week 1 continue with cold or very cold weather in the far north of Europe, cool though still above long-term norm for most of Europe, which the warmth starts to develop in E Europe. In week 2 not quite as cold in the far north, but cooler for W Europe while warmth continues to grow near the Black Sea (not as far into E Europe as shown yesterday). Spain remains almost cold for the time of year. Rain for Atlantic coastal countries and Baltic in week 1, spreading to central Europe in week 2; SE Britain a little drier.

GFS Op - Current LP to W of Ireland rearranging itself into a broad trough from mid-Atlantic to Baltic by Tue 2nd with the lowest pressure at each end as shown yesterday, and Britain initially under a col. As the week goes on, the Atlantic becomes more dominant (960mb SW Ireland Sat 6th). This hangs around off the W coast until Tue 9th when it swings across Scotland (980mb Clyde Tue 9th) and into the N Sea. A weak ridge of HP appears for the weekend Sat 13th, less convincing than yesterday, with onshore winds for the E coast, intensifying over Norway Tue 16th with Britain under slack LP.

ECM  - as GFS to Sat 6th. Now that BST is here, later charts in the ECM series are not completed until 0800 BST, and the following are from yesterday's 12z, not today's 0z - the same may apply if I'm committed at 0800 which is the case today. To Tue 9th, then, ECM still looks like GFS.

FAX - fronts moving N across Britain Mon and Wed this week and another lined up for Fri

GEFS - Rain on most days in most ens members for the next fortnight, heaviest in the SW, and in the N more front-loaded while the SE has more continuous rain throughout. Some indications of milder temps Sat 6th (fairly good agreement) and cooler Sat 13th (less agreement)
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
DPower
31 March 2024 12:00:15
I found this quite interesting, a poster on the other forum posted the NCEP reanalysis charts for March and February/March combined sea level pressure. I will try to post them. They show basically what the ec46 had been spouting for weeks for the same period. Low pressure over and to the east southeast of us with high latitude blocking.
To me this highlights just how misleading and useless pressure anomaly charts can be. As with the ec46 you would be forgiven for thinking that we would have seen quite a cold and wintry period of weather during the last two months. A complete opposite of course to what we did see.
Also when you look at the archive synoptic charts for same period they are completely different  as we know from the weather we had to what the pressure anomaly charts show.
In summary then pressure anomaly charts along with predictions from teleconnection  blockheads and to a certain extent ssw surface weather predictions need to be binned  unless you want to be continually led up the garden path.
.UserPostedImageUserPostedImage
 
+1
Saint Snow
31 March 2024 19:31:30

I found this quite interesting, a poster on the other forum posted the NCEP reanalysis charts for March and February/March combined sea level pressure. I will try to post them. They show basically what the ec46 had been spouting for weeks for the same period. Low pressure over and to the east southeast of us with high latitude blocking.
To me this highlights just how misleading and useless pressure anomaly charts can be. As with the ec46 you would be forgiven for thinking that we would have seen quite a cold and wintry period of weather during the last two months. A complete opposite of course to what we did see.
Also when you look at the archive synoptic charts for same period they are completely different  as we know from the weather we had to what the pressure anomaly charts show.
In summary then pressure anomaly charts along with predictions from teleconnection  blockheads and to a certain extent ssw surface weather predictions need to be binned  unless you want to be continually led up the garden path.
.UserPostedImageUserPostedImage
 

Originally Posted by: DPower 




That is interesting 

Climate change messing with accepted wisdom?

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Aneurin Bevan
Chunky Pea
31 March 2024 19:40:57

I found this quite interesting, a poster on the other forum posted the NCEP reanalysis charts for March and February/March combined sea level pressure. I will try to post them. They show basically what the ec46 had been spouting for weeks for the same period. Low pressure over and to the east southeast of us with high latitude blocking.
To me this highlights just how misleading and useless pressure anomaly charts can be. As with the ec46 you would be forgiven for thinking that we would have seen quite a cold and wintry period of weather during the last two months. A complete opposite of course to what we did see.
Also when you look at the archive synoptic charts for same period they are completely different  as we know from the weather we had to what the pressure anomaly charts show.
In summary then pressure anomaly charts along with predictions from teleconnection  blockheads and to a certain extent ssw surface weather predictions need to be binned  unless you want to be continually led up the garden path.
.
 

Originally Posted by: DPower 



I agree with this. Pressure anomaly charts are very deceptive at face value.  Often wiser to look at mean isolines than just the colours on their own.

 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Ally Pally Snowman
31 March 2024 19:46:10
We are on the edge of it but this is a ridiculous plume for early April. 850s of 16c in Belgium and 21c in France. Hopefully it will back west to us.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&time=144&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24 

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Gandalf The White
31 March 2024 20:13:27

That is interesting 

Climate change messing with accepted wisdom?

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



I was thinking it was just a matter of interpreting anomaly charts, something that has been discussed from time to time.  The significant negative anomaly to our south-west could have been seen as an indicator for an unsettled period, which is what we got.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
01 April 2024 07:18:06
WX temps continuing much as yesterday with cold or very cold weather in the far north of Europe, cool though still above long-term norm for most of Europe, which the warmth starts to develop in E Europe. In week 2 not quite as cold in the far north, but cooler for W Europe while warmth continues to grow near the Black Sea and this morning, into S Spain. Rain in week 1 for Portugal, France, Britain and the Baltic; in week 2 for Britain (still!) France, Germany and with lesser intensity E-wards, by then very dry for S Spain and the Caspian area. 

GFS Op - a familiar outlook from the last few days with the broad trough now setting up across Britain between main LP centres in mid-Atlantic and Baltic and Britain mostly in a col between (but shallow LP N England Wed 3rd) until Fri 5th. Then the Atlantic takes over moving to Rockall and deepening 960mb Sun 7th (S-ly or SW-ly gales over that weekend for most). This LP drifts NE-wards to Norway bringing in colder N-lies as it does so Thu 11th. Then Britain is under slack and poorly defined LP for a week while a very large area of HP grows over Kazakhstan.

ECM - like GFS to Sun 7th. The LP is then closer in, near the Hebrides with if anything stronger gales. Then it quite differently splits into two, one part filling and moving NE as per GFS, the other - not shown on GFS - moving S to 990mb Brittany Tue 9th with some possible warmth on a SE-ly for Britain. As this fills, there is a rise in pressure over Britain as HP in Azores and another in Norway show signs of linking up Thu 11th. The Kazakhstan HP is largely absent.

GEFS - In the S, on the mild side but still with frequent rain esp heavy in SW until Thu 11th back to norm or a little cooler after that, rain still continuing but in smaller amounts. In the N, the cold spell later this week is back in the forecast with a lot of rain (more than in the S) to Sat 6th, after which milder and somewhat drier as in the S. Snow likely for the Highlands in the cold spell.

 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+6
fairweather
01 April 2024 09:56:56
Just a gentle  reminder to TWO readers that it is April Fool's Day. Just saying 😂
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+1
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
01 April 2024 10:18:08

Just a gentle  reminder to TWO readers that it is April Fool's Day. Just saying 😂

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Indeed and Brian has form, honed to an edge over several years when it comes to today.
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
+1
Windy Willow
01 April 2024 10:25:27

Indeed and Brian has form, honed to an edge over several years when it comes to today.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

Indeed. I am looking forward to midday 😂👍
South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

Don't feed the Trolls!! When starved of attention they return to their dark caves or the dark recesses of bridges and will turn back to stone, silent again!
+3
Ally Pally Snowman
01 April 2024 19:07:58
GEM ends on a very high pressure note tonight, ECM also offers some optimism. A glimmer of hope. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
idj20
01 April 2024 19:42:26
ECM seems to be quite bullish (and on it's own) with 17 C uppers over this far corner of Kent on Saturday midday. Lasts only for a few hours and wind & cloud cover probably scupper things in terms of proper surface warmth, also other models are less keen anyway.

If this does actually come off and it comes with full sunshine then that would give us here at Kent the first brief taste of actual Summer, in which case I'll try not to miss it by blinking but I suspect it'll all be over the French side.

UserPostedImage 
Folkestone Harbour. 
Ally Pally Snowman
02 April 2024 07:08:39
Another good end to the GEM and ECM this morning with both showing a warm high pressure building in. GFS however is still awful. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
02 April 2024 07:25:15
WX this morning shrinking the frost in the far N of Europe (in week 2, significant parts of Norway above freezing for the first time for several months) but this not having much effect on W Europe as a whole. Warmth to be found around the Danube basin and in week 2 expanding there, plus S Spain and the Mediterranean near Italy. Rain in week 1 for Britain across to the Baltic, in week 2 pushing S into NW Europe widely, and for Britain also moving S to affect England more than Scotland.

GFS Op - starts with the predicted trough from the Atlantic across to Poland, but the Polish end soon wraps up and moves away E-wards while the Atlantic end continues to mess with Britain. (995 mb IoM Wed 3rd, 965mb Malin Sat 6th, 975mb Fastnet Tue 9th, 985mb Orkney Sat 13th, probably not too cold as winds in the SW). Then a brief rise of pressure before LP near Iceland brings in strong W-lies Tue 16th.

ECM - breaks the sequence after Mon 10th with Britain on the edge of HP ridge stretching from Azores to Norway. with long-fetch SW-lies and perhaps some Spring warmth.

GEFS - mild, intermittently very mild to Sat 13th after which near norm (though op cool). A slightly drier period around Mon 8th but otherwise some rain in most ens members at most times - heaviest in Scotland in the next few days and always wet in the SW.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Polar Low
02 April 2024 19:14:05
Hopes rising for the break to spring warmth and a lot dryer
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php 

Maybe >21c for the south in the increasing solar power from ecm later on.
 Probably as always the break will happen at the end of the Easter School holidays 😩

 
+2
Matty H
02 April 2024 20:20:53

Someone had better give the MetO the heads up so their forecasts can reflect this. 

Wrong thread, but I think I heard earlier this is the wettest 18 months since the 1800s

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Confirmed. Wettest since 1836
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
+1
tallyho_83
02 April 2024 22:06:55
18z chart for Saturday midday shows that many parts of Europe will see temperatures in the high 20's this weekend: - Winds coming all the way up from the Sahara too! BUT England as always, is on the cusp! Oh well, enough to tease!

UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


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