WX temps - freezing weather in far N of Europe going, going, [nearly] gone by week 2. Generally mild and above norm temps for Europe in week 1, but in week 2 some real warmth developing over Spain and the Black Sea, but with some colder weather returning to W Europe and pishing down towards Italy, Britain on the fringe of this. Wet for Britain and NW Europe week 1, but for C/SE Europe week 2 and Britain becoming drier on the edge of some very dry weather moving N from Spain.
GFS Op - LP (Kathleen) moving N and deepening 950mb Rockall Saturday, filling but with quite a deep trough moving across Britain on Tue 9th. HP moving up from the SW for a few days at the end of that week, then after a brief interval with LP moving into the Norwegian Sea and winds in the N on Mon 15th, HP re-asserts itself and dominates Britain from Wed 17th - dry but maybe not warm as wind is still NW-ly.
ECM - like GFS but pressure recovers less after trough on Tue and Monday's N-lies coming more directly from a long way N.
GEFS - temps up - down - up - down to cool Wed 10th, then a solidly mild period lasting to Sun 14th all with good ens agreement, then returns to norm as agreement breaks up. Some rain around Tue 9th, rather dry at other times except for Scotland at first and NW Scotland more generally, even there dying away slowly.
Originally Posted by: DEW